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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   828 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for January 11, 2026

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

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The AI 2027 guys have updated their timeline, pushing back the estimated time until a superhuman coder appears to 2032.

Does anybody else feel like they just got a stay of execution?

Not particularly, this seems to be following the usual trajectory of "in five years time" for all claimed World-Shattering Advances. As we get nearer to 2032, I wouldn't be surprised for more 'updated' timelines about "well we mean by 2036" and so on.

I'm not saying AI won't happen, I'm saying the fairytale AI won't happen. No superhuman ASI better at everything than the best human. AI integrated into our work lives the same way email and the Internet became integrated, and for once a shakeup in white collar jobs first, but no "now we have AI running the economic planning for us". Robot factories supervised by four or five humans cranking out cars? Yeah, that's plausible. AI working out how to colonise the light cone? Come off it.

I tell you, we will have energy net positive nuclear fusion in just 20 years!

For the low low price of $99.99 in 999 easy instalments!

I'm pretty sure we\ve had it for a while...

I don't think it is net positive if you account for all inputs.

That is one way of looking at it, yes. Bit of a drastic solution to "the city needs more energy", though?

The Chernobyl power plan did the five year plan - petiletka - for thermal energy production in 34 seconds.

Ehh... The harvested energy pales compared to the work that has to be put in to build the "reactor" and refine the fuel. Besides, that particular "containment" method has only ever been used in prototype tests and never in actual production use.

Damn. I hate it when my attempts at being technically correct get out-technically-corrected.

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