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PaperclipPerfector  6d ago (text post)   25266 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of January 12, 2026

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Trump announces plan to hit UK, Denmark and other European countries with extra tariffs over Greenland

Several EU countries sent tripwire forces into Greenland a few days ago. Now Trump has announced 10% tariffs on imported goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland. As a sidenote, despite predictions of economic catastrophe, Trump's tariffs have been smaller and done less economic damage than estimated.

For starters, inflation is running below projections. In December, the just-announced inflation rate was 2.7 percent. The Fed’s favorite indicator was unchanged from November when the core inflation rate, at 2.6 percent, was the lowest since 2021.

Tariffs have had surprisingly little impact on higher consumer prices. “Tariff pass‑through to consumers has been much milder than anticipated,” Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings, wrote in a recent research note. Yet revenue from tariffs brought in close to $300 billion in 2025, up from about $80 billion in 2024, and is currently on track to produce over $350 billion this year.

The evidence suggests that most costs are being absorbed by foreign exporters or by domestic sellers accepting lower profit margins. And since the actual tariffs on different countries are a crazy quilt of different rates, producers have also become expert at shifting their supply chains to countries with relatively lower tariffs. In addition, it’s easy to overstate the impact of tariffs on household costs, since imports are only about 14 percent of GDP. In other words, there are no tariffs on 86 percent of GDP.

The high tariff rate on China skews the averages. Excluding China, the effective tariff rate on the rest of the world, adjusting for trade share and exempt categories, is not the average 17 percent. It’s well below 10 percent. Thanks in part to the tariffs, the chronic U.S. global trade deficit has been shrinking. The October deficit was $29.4 billion, down nearly 40 percent from September. The decline continued in November, the last month for which statistics are available.

Still, no one knows what's the next step of Trump's master plan. Will it fizzle like the whole "Canada 51st state" thing? Polymarket estimates 27% chance that Trump will take "part of Greenland" in 2026.

While this might be a ruse (you never know with Trump), I think it is excellent news for fans of the international rule-based order. It certainly looks like the orange man-child is throwing a tantrum because it turns out that he can't get the thing he really, really, wants to get.

As a (non-SJ) left-liberal, I do not often feel pride in my nation. Merz, that slimy manifestation of upper class interests and inept populism, is certainly not my chancellor. When Putin attacked Ukraine, what I felt towards my country of birth was mostly relief -- at least this time it was not us bringing large-scale war to Europe, like usually.

Today is the first time I might feel something akin to national pride. Mild pride, mind you, making it clear that we would honor article 5 is a decent thing, not a heroic thing after all.

As @BurdensomeCount has observed, Germany has long been a good little bitch to the US. Abduct our citizens to your extralegal torture prisons, and our spineless politicians will just keep smiling. Tap the phone of our chancellor, and she will voice mild disappointment. When Trump tried to sodomize us with his tariffs, a kink of his which was not expressed by our previous masters and which we definitely do not share, we negotiated for a bit of lubrication but otherwise let him do as he pleased. I suppose Trump was surprised that we have any limits when he announced his intent to fuck Denmark in the eye socket and we actually stood up to him for once.

I don't think that loyalist NATO has the military force to stop the US from taking Greenland. Nor would I want WW3 started over it. However, even if we would lose, I would want soldiers on both sides to die over it, perhaps on the order of 10k. No reason to let the bully get what he wants without making him pay some price in the process, plus visibly cementing our relationship change.

Giving that Trump just broke the US-EU tariff deal, some poor EU diplomats are probably having to start talking with MAGA all over again. Personally, I do not feel it is worth it. Just declare reciprocal tariffs of whatever Trump imposes this week and call it a day. Dealing with the Chaotic Evil Tantrumthrower is just too much of a bother, and we would be better off trading with the Neutral Evil that is China. We should probably try to sell them some ASML EUV machines while they still need them, it is not like they are threatening the peace of the EU.

Uphold article five? With whom? With what? Didn't a poll just show that two thirds of Germans would "probably not" fight for Germany? What fraction of the remainder would fight for Greenland?

"This will be easy special operation, three days at most. They are cowards, they will not dare to resist our might."

Such words were said many times in history. Sometimes they were right, sometimes they were not. Now, if it turns not to be the case, what is your plan B? How many casualties will US accept to secure the sacred snow and ice of Greenland?

You confuse what you would like European leadership to do with what they want to do, and conclude that they can't do it.

The fact that Putin "can't" deal with Ramzan Kadyrov setting up a Muslim mini-theocracy within Russia's borders, or raise TFR, or any other number of things hasn't stoppsed him from sending hundreds of thousands to war. This is not a wargame, and failing to uphold one of the "basics of finctioning nation-states" does not magically deactivate all the other options a state has.

If you see a practical way of Europe challenging the US, by all means outline it. Putin pays his soldiers, is Europe supposed to do the same while maintaining it's welfare state, or do you think we're likely to ditch it? Where is their ammo coming from? We literally ran out of bombs when ousting Gaddafi. Do you think we'll be as good as the Americans at logistics, and we'll be able to project our power all the way to Greenland well enough to give the Americans a run for their money?

The only way for Europe to truly challenge America right now is to drop Ukraine, make big overtures toward Russia, get closer to China (nuclear option would be lifting ASML export restrictions to the PRC, since no US company can compete with them). Then Trump is in an unenviable position. He can wield the might of the US financial system to try to destroy the European and Chinese economies but that’s an extremely high variance play that would unite the US’ main geopolitical competitors in a way that could destroy dollar hegemony.

If he wants Greenland, instead of the current fumbling, he can just threaten Novo exports until the Danes agree to a referendum, then bribe the natives. Alas, that would require a somewhat more intentional foreign policy.

ASML play is complicated. It depends on American IP and suppliers, like Cymer for light source. Nevertheless, just a month ago Macron did hint at something very close to that, and the Chinese are working on the entire stack, so…

Toujours dans un souci d'apaisement, le président propose « le démantèlement mutuel de nos politiques agressives, telles que les restrictions à l'exportation de machines pour semi-conducteurs du côté européen et des limitations à l'export des terres rares en ce qui concerne la partie chinoise ».

I hope Trump chases Europeans into a corner where they start considering live player options, options their Atlanticist handlers won't greenlight.

Was Venezuela not exactly this fast operation? Were their troops not cowards who would lift a single MANPAD to resist our might?

We (for value of "we"=military history nerds) will know in decades, if ever, what exactly happened this fateful night, what, if any, subterfuges and backstage deals were involved.

But, according to reports that came through, Venezuelans and Cubans stood against science fictional death ray and died, something as far from cowardice as there could be.

Anyway, lessons from Venezuela for potential confrontation between US and European countries are limited (unless you believe them to be equally rotting and decrepit shitholes).

hordes of Islamists

As relevant to potential US-EU war scenario as American mass shootings and constant gang violence, this is not at all. For example, India and Pakistan are both full of internal unrest, and it does not stop them from warring with each other in the utmost seriousness.

but you will fight and die

This is decision for European leaders and their armed forces. Will the leader give orders to resist the invasion? Will the soldiers obey? Will they do so effectively enough to cause significant US casualties?

Look, I don't know or even care really why Trump wants Greenland.

Do not ask any questions, just trust the Great Leader. Nothing can be more American in spirit.

As much as I would like to see deportations, there is no counterpart in Europe to the abandonment of inner cities to that America saw, you can still have a nice time walking through Marseille or Brussels even if they are disasters by European standards.

I don't think America has failed the most basic functions of a nation state, but if you want to say that achieving the murder rate of the state of Iowa - no European counterpart of Detroit or Baltimore even exists - is a sign of such failure then it appears that you are saying it.

I don't think America has failed the most basic functions of a nation state

Country can be extremely internally violent and still be able to maintain state of the art air, space and nuclear forces and face other great power in open warfare.

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