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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   33833 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of January 19, 2026

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Does this show the weakness of UBI or weakness of American administrative capacity? California can't do HSR but HSR is still possible. In many countries public transport is perfectly usable, respectable, junkie-free...

Also if we're talking about UBI how hard can it be to get a robot to drive the buses and trains and cut down labour costs? I agree that UBI in the current American political system would be a giant mess. But that's not so much about UBI but about the American system.

Does this show the weakness of UBI or weakness of American administrative capacity? California can't do HSR but HSR is still possible.

For a slightly-slower speed of "high-speed", the privately-owned Brightline HSR in Florida opened a few years ago and connects Miami to Orlando. American administrative capacity does suffer from analysis paralysis in general, but California is probably the worst offender in that regard, and things do "just get built" elsewhere sometimes.

On the other hand, the bright line is responsible for many deaths that I can imagine California would never allo. This of course drives up the cost as well as prevents any progress from ever being made.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/2025/10/brightline-train-florida/684624/

Your article is paywalled. Regardless, far more important than dead morons at grade crossings is the fact that Brightline is not making a profit.

California can’t do HSR- it’s one of those statements which is kinda sort a true. California can’t stick to a plan is why they can’t build HSR.

Also if we're talking about UBI how hard can it be to get a robot to drive the buses and trains and cut down labour costs?

Ummm.... we've literally got private companies sinking billions of dollars into the much easier problem of self driving cars. (Buses are much harder to control than cars, there's much less training data available, and the driver does a lot of things besides drive like monitor fares and kick off druggies.) And while I like the self driving progress, it's still obviously not ready for production yet.

Self-driving trains seem like an easier problem to solve than self-driving cars, especially for a metro system like D.C.’s. They more or less just need to know when to stop and go, plus maybe have a sensor to make sure they don’t run over a pedestrian who fell on the tracks but didn’t get immediately electrocuted.

DC has self-driving trains. We always did, but there was a fatal accident a decade ago that spooked everyone into turning them off. Supposedly that accident didn't even involve the self-driving ATO system at all, but it was still disabled anyways. (One wonders why.) However, recently, WMATA started a trial program to restore self-driving service on the Red Line, which was fairly successful and it appears it's been restored on all lines now.

I like the implication that if a pedestrian dies from falling on the tracks, it's fine for the robot train to run over the body. Pure nerd approach!

Is the stopping distance on a subway train such that an attentive human driver can stop it in time? I know for freight trains stopping distance is measured in miles and it's a solid "no". Access control seems like an easier investment for subways, but not a panacea for human stupidity.

I'd bet modern automotive-derived sensors could do nearly as well as human eyeballs watching the tracks ahead given some effort.

Self-driving trains seem like an easier problem to solve than self-driving cars, especially for a metro system like D.C.’s.

They already exist in some locales, mostly outside the US. IIRC Singapore has a fully-automated metro system. But from what I understand, the unions (I've at least heard this about the NY metro several times) effectively prevent trying to implement these upgrades because a transit strike would cripple the city. But driverless trains and platform screen doors are things that exist elsewhere, so they can be done.

One of the weird things about American politics is that "public transit advocates" have a hate-on for autonomous vehicles. This is despite the fact that AVs would allow running far more bus routes, more cheaply, than today.

I can't decide if this is because public transit advocacy today is mostly about an aesthetic aversion to cars and roads, or if it's because coalitional politics demands that public transit advocacy simultaneously look to protect make work union jobs.

Tactically autonomous vehicles are a big problem for public transit advocates because cars are much more labor-intensive, and yet still overwhelmingly preferred. Eliminate the need for drivers and instead of cheap bus routes, you will end up with a bunch of low-cost Uber Pools outcompeting the public transit system by doing point-to-point trips more quickly and in a safer, more comfortable environment.

So for anyone who is a public transit activist for environmental or aesthetic reasons, this is a disaster because they lose their best arguments for convincing moderates (cost and efficiency).

"public transit advocates" have a hate-on for autonomous vehicles

Citation needed for inflammatory claim. But see also this article on how unions are preventing two-person train/subway crews in the US from being decreased to just a single person (which is the norm in other countries).

Citation needed for inflammatory claim

Sure.

https://sftransitriders.org/on-mayor-luries-plan-to-allow-waymo-on-market-street/

One of the weird things about American politics is that "public transit advocates" have a hate-on for autonomous vehicles. This is despite the fact that AVs would allow running far more bus routes, more cheaply, than today.

Because public transit is a jobs and patronage program first and foremost.

One can also be very skeptical of the claims made. I won't claim to have dug in detail but iirc the big claims usually rely on streets being basically clear of non AVs and those AVs all being networked together so they can use the roads incredibly densely.

Something like 2/3 of operating costs of public transit in the USA is labor costs. If you can replace most of those with AVs, you can get more bus routes, without any radical assumptions or requirements for the broader transit system.

Fair enough. I was unconsciously blending in the claims I'd heard made for cars.

Though I do think thta @Butlerian is right that the up-front costs may be high enough that it makes less difference than you think, unless we truly perfect visual-SLAM. Velodyne LIDARs are expensive.

Yeah, it's not realistic to think labor costs would literally go to zero. Did some research and public transit labor and associated costs in the US are likely around 50B annually; for comparison, Alphabet's workforce is around 100B (though of course the vast majority aren't working on AVs).

LIDARs are expensive, but probably a lower proportion of the cost of the vehicle for a bus than for a regular car (even if buses require more sensors).

Something like 2/3 of operating costs of public transit in the USA is labor costs. If you can replace most of those with AVs, you can…

…shift the beneficiaries of those labour costs from blue collar bus drivers to white collar robotics engineers and AI devs. Which will probably increase the labour costs overall but that’s good because now I might be the one getting paid.

Does this show the weakness of UBI or weakness of American administrative capacity? California can't do HSR but HSR is still possible. In many countries public transport is perfectly usable, respectable, junkie-free...

I don't think there is any well-run city where the transit system as a whole covers 100% of operating costs at the farebox. Hong Kong covers 100% of operating costs using a combination of farebox revenue and station-adjacent retail, and I think Tokyo does as well. There are definitely routes which do, and there are a few cities where the metro/light rail/equivalent as a whole has a farebox operating surplus (the London Underground is an example) which subsidises low-ridership bus routes and paratransit. But every city runs lifeline services to auto-oriented outer suburbs that lose money hand-over-fist, and almost every city runs paratransit that loses even more money.

This isn't particularly surprising - some of the benefit of collectively-provided transport flows to riders (and can be captured through fares) but some is captured by landlords near the route (and has to be captured through property taxes). This logic applies to roads for cars too, which is why local streets are paid for out of property taxes and not gas taxes in almost every city in America. The exceptions (HK and Tokyo) are where the transit network is the landlord.

The state provides lots of public services that aren't supposed to be revenue-neutral though. Public libraries for instance or parks.

I think a razor focus on revenue and cost is besides the point. Public transport should be more systemically efficient (1 engine for 40 rather than 40 engines for 40: economies of scale), produce less pollution than cars, take up less space... The problem in Washington isn't just that it's expensive but that it's unsafe (catching on fire for instance), not transporting good numbers of people. Probably epic amounts of corruption going on too.

Cost is important, it shouldn't be excessively expensive, but taxes are a thing for a reason. If all government services were expected to recoup their costs why would we have taxes?

Public transport should be more systemically efficient (1 engine for 40 rather than 40 engines for 40: economies of scale)

It isn't, though. Because it turns out average number of riders on a bus is not 40 but 9.

The reason isn't a failure of public transport but a failure of Americans. Get rid of the lowlifes shooting up in train stations or pushing random people onto the tracks and then you can have an efficient public transport system. Normal people don't want to be around these net-negatives and will move out to the suburbs, segregate themselves away in cars because they, quite reasonably, don't trust others.

"Teens menace boy with machete and pepper spray on Queens bus" https://youtube.com/watch?v=qalXSOLvEAU

Why would you want to take a bus if this is what you might get?

Americans don't like to live in anthills where public transit can theoretically be efficient. That's not a failing of Americans.

"Americans" are not a homogenous group with uniform preferences about urban living - some like it, others don't. A lot more Americans want to live in places that resemble European or first-world Asian cities than are currently able to - we know this because such places (or even simulacra of them like New Urbanist suburbs) carry a price premium.

Americans living in suburbia is not a revealed preference because urbanism is mostly illegal - both in the sense that it is literally illegal to build at density in most of the US, and also in the sense that the system will not allow you to do the things you need to police somewhere built at urban densities - and I think we all agree that crime is a good and sufficient reason why nobody with options will live in the typical American inner city. If you ask Americans on this board why they don't like cities, most (not all - people who genuinely prefer more rural-like lifestyles exist) of the responses are about crime.

Empirically, where the system is able to put up low-diversity low-crime urbanism the way America puts up Pulte Homes tackyboxes with two-car garages (parts of Spain, South Korea, Japan), everywhere else depopulates. Even high-diversity medium-crime urbanism (NYC, London, Paris) is a build-it-and-they-will-come phenomenon.

"Americans" are not a homogenous group with uniform preferences about urban living

If RandomRanger can generalize, so can I.

Americans living in suburbia is not a revealed preference because urbanism is mostly illegal - both in the sense that it is literally illegal to build at density in most of the US, and also in the sense that the system will not allow you to do the things you need to police somewhere built at urban densities

For the past few decades the anti-sprawl people have been encouraging density and eliminating new suburban growth. And certainly density was not banned when the post-WWII suburbs were being built.

And yes, the system will not allow the kind of authoritarian policing that Japan has to maintain civility with that sort of density. That's not making urbanism illegal. That's just showing that Americans aren't yet comfortable with such authoritarianism.

No, Americans do like to live in cities like all settled peoples. Americans invented the skyscraper!

Until recently the US had dense and highly developed urban centres. Americans failing to defend and preserve their city centres is a serious failure.

No, Americans do like to live in cities like all settled peoples. Americans invented the skyscraper!

They're supposed to be offices, not residences.

Source for inflammatory claim

Average occupancies have declined as ridership has fallen faster than agencies have reduced service. In 1991, the average transit motor bus carried 11.0 people; by 2019, buses were no smaller yet they averaged just 8.0 riders. Trolley buses do a little better because they tend to serve mainly dense inner cities, but their average occupancies still dropped from 14.8 in 1991 to 12.8 in 2019.

The differences between cities are much larger than the changes over time. Honolulu, New York, and San Francisco motor buses carry an average of 17 riders. At the other end of the scale, Ft. Worth transit buses carry less than 4 riders, and buses in Columbus, Dallas, Indianapolis, and Salt Lake City average just 5. Honolulu, New York, and San Francisco are denser cities, of course, but the real problem is that transit agencies want to collect tax revenue from as many suburbs as possible and therefore become obligated to serve those suburbs even though most of the residents have two or three cars in every driveway.

With such low ridership, the promised emissions reductions from mass transit are pretty questionable, no? A city bus (<4mpg) with 5 riders is effectively 20 passenger-miles per gallon. A hybrid gets around 30mpg, even assuming a solo driver. Even the average 2020 model exceeds 20mpg! Maybe there are worthwhile access and congestion arguments otherwise, but it sounds like the Ft. Worth and Indianapolis buses may be a net emissions negative.

The article addresses this.

In 2017, the most recent year for which data are available, the average car consumed less than 2,900 British thermal units (BTUs) per passenger-mile while the average light truck used less than 3,400 (and both were almost certainly less in 2019). That’s far better than the national average of transit buses, as both motor buses and trolley buses used more than 4,600 BTUs per passenger-mile.

Only two of the transit agencies considered here—San Francisco Muni and Honolulu—used significantly less energy than cars in their motor bus operations. Dayton’s trolley buses did as well, though as discussed below that number may be questionable. Motor buses operated by another dozen agencies, including New Jersey Transit and Denver’s RTD, used a little less energy than light trucks but more than cars.

The remaining agencies all used more energy per passenger-mile than automobiles. The worst cases were buses in Bakersfield and Sacramento, which used more than 9,000 BTUs per passenger-mile, and buses in Phoenix, Kansas City, Orange County, and a few smaller areas, which used more than 8,000. Albuquerque, Dallas, Nashville, Phoenix, Raleigh, and Reno are among those above 7,000, while Indianapolis, New Orleans, San Diego, and San Mateo County are above 6,000.

And that's without accounting for circuity -- that is, a bus takes a lot more miles to get a given passenger from point A to point B than a car does.

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