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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   164 thread views

Transnational Thursday for March 19, 2026

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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So what actually is the American long-term plan for Iran? Just keep bombing them forever, for the lulz?

There is no long term plan clearly expressed at this point. Right now there are three outcomes that have been mooted by Trump and Co at different times:

  1. Regime change/the people finally rise up: Iran's government falls. USA makes a deal with the new Iranian government (s) to get everything moving again. Goes to Trump's calls for unconditional surrender.

  2. The United States gets bored and leaves, as Trump threatened yesterday. The gulf countries probably make a deal with Iran to pay tolls to get Hormuz open.

  3. USA is able to brute force destroy Iran's ability to harm vessels in the strait, and traffic resumes. The air war may continue more or less indefinitely, with Iran slowly ground down but the islamists maintaining power over the rubble. Iran becomes increasingly irrelevant. Goes to Trump's plans for naval escorts and island threats.

I'm not sure which seems likely at this point.

What is long term plan for Gaza, Syria and Lebanon? The bombing goes on and can go on ... not forever, nothing lasts forever... but for a long time until there is anything to bomb.

Gaza, Syria and Lebanon can’t cut off half the world oil supply.

I guess until they break. I guess that if this could be sustained couple more weeks people will take to the street. I guess they could start dissolving the state capacity. Barracks, courthouses, prison administrative buildings, police stations and so on.

The protests were wasted but if a couple of cracks show - it will roll downhill and fast. Lets give US at least the time NATO had in Serbia. It took 3 months to bring down Milosevic.

That would at least be a plan. Alright. Let's see how it plays out.

Let's see how it plays out.

Obligatory Soviet and post-Soviet joke:

OPTIMIST: This cannot get any worse!

PESIMIST: Yes it can!

  1. Bomb Iran

  2. ???

  3. Profit

I'm neither pro-iran nor anti-america. I just plain don't get it. I don't understand where this is supposed to lead.

To Underpants Bomber Gnomes obviously.

For real, the Iran "plan" seems to be about as well planned as the Underpants Gnomes' plan in that episode.

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