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You say that. But without Trump to campaign for Vance, where are we? I take nothing for granted after Kirk's assassination and how much it felt like some core to the MAGA movement that was load bearing in a way I hadn't appreciated was ripped away. After he was buried, suddenly Republicans were looking at getting slaughtered in the midterms. Turns out political murders work.
I wouldn’t necessarily trust prediction markets at this point. I feel like most regular betters on them liking lean left and are biased against Trump. Prediction markets are not public opinion polls since you have money in them, but they sort of are. Betting on Trump outperforming has worked in the past and my gut says the true quants “give me the money” types have not entered the market yet until you can see a more systematic edge in the bet.
My instincts tell me the true macro type betters haven’t placed their wages yet. A lot of people seem to like to highlight the prediction markets as a sign Trump is losing, but I think it is wrong for now.
Betting public usually gigantically pro Trump for the big key markets. Trump beating Hilary was probably the worst pnl day for sportsbooks in a lot of places since it was a 8 to 1 shot with more than 50% of the handle
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While it’s true that Trump has some use on the campaign trail to draw crowds, his successor/widow + Elon will have much of the same capability. He’s kinda mixed on TV, with both gaffes and zingers. His debate with Kamala was a pathetic stalemate against a dim talent and he’s only getting older.
It’s hard for me to say that Trump the martyr wouldn’t be of more use than a live Trump in 2028. And after 2028, he just becomes a liability and chaos monkey to the nationalist movement. He’s not an important thinker or strategic asset. He’s polarizing and will be remembered more fondly by centrist voters dead than alive.
For those of us that want a capable right-wing takeover of America, Trump is going to be a major pain in the ass after 2028.
Now Charlie Kirk was a telegenic movement builder in his 30s. That was a massive loss. There is no replacement for him.
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Well, that’s the first time I’ve seen such a theory. I would have said there’s been more support for Trump et. al in the wake of the killing. People like @JeSuisCharlie joining up to talk about how he was the last beacon of hope or whatever.
How could you distinguish “political murders work” from Republicans losing on fundamentals? Say, if they did a bunch of highly-visible police actions and then started a war in the Middle East?
I have never claimed that Charlie Kirk was anything like "the last beacon of hope" or whatever. What I have consistently said is that his killing and the responses to his being killed that I observed from ostensibly "moderate" and "main-stream" Democrats was a radicalizing moment.
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Even assuming it 'worked out' electorally, there's also a pretty broad 'there's two types of people that want to get into dead men's shoes' problem. To get any statutory changes, you don't just need one person with the will to force effective change: it's 1 President + 50 Senators + 218 Representatives + 5 Justices. Even a tiny or trivial number gets cold feet because they're more interest in living to see retirement than in getting those concrete wins, you go nowhere. There's even some juice in being in the handful to disagree!
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