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Somehow I don’t imagine the cost of milk will get cheaper this time around and the cost of living will continue to go up. The political class in D.C. is so unbelievably out of touch with ordinary people it’s hard to imagine. Why don’t you focus on housing affordability, the energy crunch and climate initiatives, general cost of living, taking out a mortgage to go to college, the healthcare system bankrupting people, new cars costing between $40-$70k, giving preferential treatment to illegal immigrants; among other things; rather than fucking with some other country on the other side of the planet to further the foreign policy objectives of some secular, messianic morons who don’t even believe the way we do?
I won't call it a 'prediction' yet... but I expect:
Lots of focus on revenge, punishment, and settling political scores. I don't think these folks have gotten over what happened on January 6, 2021, much less what has happened since then.
Attempts to HYPERCHARGE the social changes they had been trying to implement. Trump has undone almost 16 years of 'progress' thus far, they will try to gain all that back at once, to get back 'on track.'
Desperation to re-establish funding for their various NGOs and pet projects.
Some attempts to shore up their actual control of the states they've picked up.
I don't think they're competent or efficient enough to do all this and chew gum at the same time, so unless a lot of things line up in their favor they're going to be tripping over their own feet for most of those two years.
I expect Jeffries to mostly try to impeach Trump. Legitimately don't know if he'll get removed from office- the senate is smart enough to understand their partisan incentives are the opposite of what you'd expect, but also political enough that they can't just straightforwardly follow game theory.
In Texas, Democrats will legalize pot in some form. They will also cut off funding for schoolchoice. I expect them to try, and fail, to bring teacher's unions to Texas, and lose control of the house in '28(in the bluest year since the seventies they have a narrower margin of control than republicans usually get). Ted Cruz will likely endorse the sort of normiecons who do well in the suburbs for statewide elections in 2030, and this will help republicans.
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Honestly dude, I live in a metropolis and grew up in suburbia and I can tell you straight up, the average citizen I know doesn’t care one damn bit about any of the things you just listed. They literally don’t know what an NGO is and couldn’t tell you what January 6th was about. They go to work or school, come home, watch Instagram reels and get on social media, go out clubbing, hang out with friends, etc. The ordinary citizen is pretty politically apathetic and indifferent. You have to make politics felt by people. It’s why a lot of people took note and attention when Trump proposed no taxes on overtime pay. Tariffs on Canada? (Don’t give a fuck.)
All the things you note are taking place among elite actors in a political arena that’s more than half empty.
If democracy was about solving the needs of the people then Baltimore and Detroit and Chicago wouldn't keep electing corrupt political machines.
The politicians do what they do because they are of, for, and by the activist class.
And the activist class would burn the world down to hurt Trump and his proxies. No cost is too high to bear. The enemies must pay.
The problem I have with democracies is some jobs it doesn’t possess the tools or political resources to solve. If you keep electing such people then one of two things is true: either the electorate is stupid, or, you can’t democratically vote your way out of the problem (hence, where democracies expose their flaws). The cardinal rule of politics is that politicians do whatever gets them elected.
Yes, and putting mainstream Republicans in gulags is an issue that polls extremely well with mainstream Democrats. Don't underestimate how much hate that even otherwise good people can hold in their heart.
You're assuming that Democrats will "tackle affordability" or do other impossible things to win an election.
I'm assuming that they will win elections by making a giant straw man and then burning that straw man to death.
You mind providing the evidence for this?
As far as I know, the closest evidence for it is that during Covid-19, democrats broadly supported draconian unconstitutional measures that would have hurt their political enemies very strongly.
Democrats are already announcing they're going to try and pass a federal universal gun registry. Presumably it will be a federal felony to not register your guns. This is unjustifiable from any basis by which we assess other laws, ie cracking down on marijuana possession or illegal immigration are much easier to justify in terms of expected policy outcomes than this law. It is being proposed because it is a way to threaten broad swaths of up-till-now law-abiding Americans with a federal felony if they do not bend the knee in a way that makes violating their constitutional rights much easier.
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That's my point. The Dems will go all-in on political goals that are orthogonal to those things the electorate wants and cares about. They will thus not be able to make the median voters feel represented effectively.
I don't think there will be much substantive policy made, and as you indicate many things will get worse from an affordability point of view (modulo AI doing some cool stuff). And thus in two years, there will be an even more frustrated electorate that may be heavily regretting their last decision.
The one thing they might actually get around to doing is blatant handouts of one form or another as a means of 'easing' economic struggles.
Trump himself already set the precedent by offering to cut everyone a $5000 cheque if they vote Repub.
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Handouts are the kind of solutions that buy votes in the short-term but does nothing to solve problems. It’s part of the American art of playing political football. It’s why you see things like officials turning about once they’re out of office and supporting all the things the people are really interested in, now that they’re out of power and don’t have to worry about it. Same reason you find people in the energy markets doing PR stunts to put on a good face to public by “supporting carbon taxes” (because they knew they’d never happen). We don’t fix problems, we paper over them.
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It doesn't matter if the cost of milk doesn't get cheaper two years from now. Blues will use their political power to cement policy wins that Reds will not be able to reverse even if they win subsequent elections. Whatever negative consequences result from Blue political dominance will not be accounted to Blues; it will be blamed on insufficient blueness, or else it will not be recognized to exist.
I’m not disagreeing with you here but from the people I know, politics is revealed at the grocery bill and goes no further than that. Not one single one of them truly give a shit what happens internationally if they can’t pay their mortgage and don’t have enough gas to get to work. All they see is, “Hm. Blue team is in charge. My property tax has gone up, and my phone bill and Internet have increased by 63%. I will vote for the other team next time around.”
People need to tangibly feel the change in their daily lives for them to care. Even one of my acquaintances who is very much a democratic supporter (I think he’s naive but I oblige him; not that Republicans don’t play the same game; they too, can also eat my ass) said, “Shit, I’ll vote for that idiot…” (referring to Trump) “… if he puts a stimulus check in my bank account.”
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You can get a brand new toyota or honda SUV for under that, to say nothing of a sedan.
US MSRP for a new Toyota Camry (which was the best-selling car in America as late as 2020) is in the 29-36k range depending on trim level.
The reason why new "cars" cost a lot more than they used to is that Americans have normalised buying a light-duty truck as their "car". @Tretiak thinking that "cars" cost 50% more than a Camry and that this is why normie-Americans are feeling the economic pain is evidence for any or all of the standard vibecession theories:
And for my snarky theory, which is that America is a country where personal physical safety is bought in a zero-sum auction. Elites seem to think this is normal, but it generates permanent economic anxiety among the middle class of a type that doesn't exist in countries with less crime, safer roads etc. "A car large enough to feel safe letting your kids in given that a moron could crash into you any time" is defined relative to the other cars on the road, so the morons being able to buy pickups with 7-year subprime auto leases directly raises your cost of living.
Even if one (or more than one) of these theories is true and the American economy is actually fine (official statistics say it is, and it is definitely doing better than other countries with similar or lower levels of normie economic anger), saying so is of course a voter-hostile position of the type that tanked the Dems in 2024 and the Reps last week.
You can buy a new pickup truck from an American dealership for under $40k, they're more expensive than sedans but not by that much. The base models just don't sell very well(there are luxury vehicle versions of all the main pickup truck models and they sell like hotcakes). Rising expectations are most of the affordability crisis.
Obviously, politicians can't say that out loud. But it is true. Groceries are higher, but not by as much as American's expectations of what they should be eating. My parents grew up eating pasta, hotdogs, and other cheap dishes multiple nights a week. My grandparents got most of their calories from rice growing up(no, this was not during the depression). Now Americans think eating chicken thighs is poverty. Base model(no bells and whistles) vehicles sell so poorly that dealers don't even bother to stock them(although they will special order- manufacturers make them). House sizes are gigantic even compared to the relatively recent past and most of the extra space is essentially wasted.
I could believe K-shaped economies are exacerbated by "just put literally everything on credit".
People who were leveraged to the hilt in 2020 are now in a wildly better position than everyone else simply because the debt has in large part inflated away- so really, why not budget like the government does? Indeed, if you don't (or don't have the credit because you're out of work, or in school), you're just getting wrecked by everyone else who does.
It's just like student loans: a loan with an interest rate under inflation means the effective interest you pay is negative, so if you don't do that, you're just leaving money on the table- just make sure your credit's good enough and don't lose your job (and even if you do, unemployment will still cover you for quite a while provided you were making the appropriate amount of money before), and you can take advantage of all that free money too.
And, if you do keep it for 15 years (or longer- both because it's a luxury vehicle, and now that manufacturers have figured out how to rust-proof that's realistic), it'll still sell for what a new base model at that time will cost.
Well, that and the 'this used to be a cheap staple, now it's just as expensive as avocado toast' thing. For instance, you want lunch meat for your sandwich? You can buy corned beef for 4 bucks per standard unit, or higher quality salami for 5 bucks per standard unit.
Used to be 1.50 and 4- so sure, you might not necessarily like it, but at least it'd be 40% the cost of the tastier alternative. So at that point, if you can afford the cheaper product, you can afford the upgraded version; if you can't afford that, you can't afford anything.
Probably because of logistic advancements, the cheap staples are different now. Anything canned is expensive, meat especially. My go to sandwich meat is this stuff. I have to slice it all the way through myself (the spiral cut only goes partway), but it's actually actually slightly cheaper than the unholy ham obelisk, and "with natural juices" is a higher grade than "water added". Same goes for vegetables. Frozen is cheaper than canned, especially in bulk sizes.
Yeah- it's honestly really strange to notice that sure, I could buy a can of decent soup for 3 bucks... or I could buy hot dogs and buns instead, which are 4 bucks a meal assuming you eat two at a time (and commit to eating them for 3 days).
But then, that's just the general case of "if you couldn't afford the more expensive goods, you can't afford the ones that used to be cheap either". Yes, the quality is technically better, but I'm really not sure what I gain by noticing that given that everything's relatively tasteless to me anyway. (Which is part of the reason I bought the cheaper stuff in the first place.)
Then again, 'penny-wise, pound-foolish' means I don't really pay much attention to it because it will never be worth my while to do so. Food doesn't actually take up that much of the budget and, had I a family to cook for, the cost amortized over multiple diners is still better than an industrial kitchen, with the exception of fried chicken, sushi, or Chinese food.
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I was gonna press doubt but I went and searched inventory and yes the chevy dealer got trucks on the lot for 34k.
I guess these are more of work trucks for actual construction crews and would be wholly unsuitable as a mall crawler but that's probably the point.
If they're crew cab, then they are literally the exact same thing as a consumer pickup that you use to commute between your suburban home and the office- just with fewer bells and whistles. Commercial customers are more likely to order trucks as part of a planned replacement cycle rather than show up to the lot to buy day of, so the economics of keeping them in stock are different.
The things that make work pickup trucks radically different are usually aftermarket modifications to base model vehicles which have identical commercial and personal builds from the manufacturer. Commercial full sized work vans, on the other hand, are built differently, but very few people are shopping for a full sized van for personal use.
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You’re obviously coming into the discussion of economic woes pretty late if you’re referencing me. The average cost of a new Toyota Camry here is between $38k-$39k, which approximates the lower bound I put it at. I’ve argued numerous times and have been attacked for saying the economic “crisis” most people are experiencing owes more to lifestyle inflation than it does other factors. If you’re prepared to eat from an older recipe book and a crock pot and not own a smartphone, living becomes much more easier if you’re willing to cut down. Yeah, you can always buy a beater car too. If you’re willing to dump $10k-$20k into it over the course of the long-term maintenance of the vehicle. Head gasket blown? Drop half the price on a single trip to the mechanic. Fix it yourself? Impractical if you have neither the knowledge or the time. Buy a new car? Be prepared to repeat the process, lather, rinse, repeat.
Incidentally, the data’s well documented on the wage stagnation that began happening during the 70’s and 80’s, which also coincided with the neoliberal push and deregulation of the financial sector. That doesn’t mean owning multiple 4k televisions in each room of your house doesn’t mean you don’t have a spending problem. People tend to live to the maximum of their income and don’t bother with financial planning. They’ll immediately blow their direct deposit 48 hours after it hits the bank.
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Pickups became larger when Obama raised gas efficiency standards. The larger truck was permitted to have less efficiency.
There's truth to this, but the base model pickup trucks aren't really any more expensive when adjusted for inflation- the ones sold today are mostly luxury vehicles.
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I’m looking more at the Slate cars to be honest.
Why not Telo?
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Never heard of those, but I can definitely appreciate the concept.
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