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Culture War Roundup for the week of April 24, 2023

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I think they’ll ultimately win. It’s just that really they’re still in the foundation stage of the movement. Almost any real political upheaval is a generations-long process of first creating a philosophy and ethos and then unify around that philosophy and work to implement it. But if you’d have judged the communist movement by what it was in 1870 when it was first taking shape, you wouldn’t have predicted the Russian revolution. The tumultuous nature of the current generation of reactionaries doesn’t mean much because I believe it will eventually settle on an ethos that will be United enough to win real power.

It seems to me that it's the fraction of angry young men you have on your side that matters more than the absolute number. If your side has all the kids, then you will have disproportionate power regardless of how many octogenarians hate your guts.

Is there really? Old men don't fight wars, the octogenarian legions might look mighty in a democracy, but if you're angry enough all the old people yelling doesn't matter if you're holding the gun.

Indeed. Also, the armies, police forces and militias that successfully put down rebellions of angry young men in the past were themselves recruited from huge pools of young men living in fecund societies. And also, fecund but stable societies in the past drew their stability from masses of married or at least paired-up young men having an investment in the future stability of that society. In demographically imploding atomized societies, there won't be many of them around either, so the two factors cancel each other out.

I doubt that failed anti-government rebellions were ever normally put down by men in the 50-60 or 40-60 age bracket.

Is that right though? Actual boomers are well into the senior citizen bracket, and I think there was a bit of a baby bump for millenials/early zoomers which gives them a pretty big numbers advantage over genX.

We are smarter and would win in a fight obviously -- but honestly most of that generation seems if not on board with the status quo much too coddled to do anything about it.

That comparison isn't really between revolutionary societies to current western societies. It's between pretty much every other society, nearly all of them (revolutionary and otherwise) in the past and most of them in the present, to current western societies.

Angry young men is a bit ambiguous, though, and I'm not sure the "angry young men" of today are comparable to those of the past. Before, the rabble were employed as productive labor in critical economic activities and had broader real-life social connections with one another. Now, at best they're criminals, and at worst they're living in their parents' basements addicted to porn and video games. The past cohort was a much more fertile ground for revolutionary impulses and organizations to develop.

I also suspect that due to selection effects (or lack thereof) for the last several generations the average quality of young men qua young men is simply lower.

People also go on about testosterone but didn't Scott write something questioning that?

I wonder how it's going to pan out with the current demographic trends. Past societies weren't really getting the old/young ratios to properly test this theory. How is it going to feel to be young in a society where every young voice gets shouted down by a hundred angry grandpas?

I mean, Japan is ahead of the West and the ruling party is as strong as ever.

Yeah, but Japan is the poster child of "falling fertility rates" and the infamous work culture there probably won't last much longer than its elderly population.

I would guess an uneasy detente until one group of kids decides to stop respecting their elders and bowls them all over.

Generation X already got this.