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What will be left of Ukraine after Russia and the West are done with their proxy war?
It's hard to get good numbers as both Russia and Ukraine lie about everything. But it feels that Ukraine is exhausted and will soon lose this war. My heuristic for this is reading between the lines of the news. Every optimistic story about Ukraine's war effort in the last year has failed to bear fruit. And nuggets of facts go unchallenged, such as the average age of Ukraine's soldiers now being 42.
The U.S. estimate as of August (according to Wikipedia) is that 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed with another 120,000 wounded. I would treat this as a floor, personally. The Ukrainian forces at the start of the war were 200,000 regular soldiers and 100,000 paramilitary. I think it's safe to say these troops have been utterly gutted. The size of the Ukrainian army is reportedly 800,000 today but at this point it must be nearly entirely conscripts. Conscripts with an average age of 42. To channel George Carlin, think of the average 42 year old. How would they fare in a trench? Now realize half of Ukrainian soldiers are older than that.
Millions of people have fled Ukraine. The population (as of 2022) had already declined from 51 million to 36 million within the 1991 borders. It is likely much lower today. We will soon see the first instance in more than 150 years of a country losing half its population. (Either the Potato Famine or the Paraguayan War seem like the last potential candidates for this happening).
What people don't realize is how incredibly RARE this is. The population of other war-torn regions such as Afghanistan and Iraq has skyrocketed. You can't even see the conflicts on a population chart. Syria had a brief decline but has rebounded and is now higher than ever before. The population of Russia dipped during WWII by about 10% but by 1955 had rebounded again to an all-time high.
The combination of low fertility, huge emigration, and war deaths will depopulate Ukraine to a degree that hasn't been seen in modern times.
I have to ask, at this point, why does the West still support Ukraine? Yes, it's very convenient that Ukraine is willing to destroy itself to hurt Russia. But, as a utilitarian, I am very skeptical of the benefits of "grand strategy" type decisions like this. The world is complicated. If we let Putin have the Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine will he then demand the Polish-speaking parts of Poland? No. It's not like this war has been a resounding success. Furthermore, he could die tomorrow.
But the deaths suffered by Ukrainian conscripts (and yes Russian conscripts too) are very real. We are trading the deaths of real people for theoretical future benefits. And we are destroying an entire country in the process. Why not go to the bargaining table and end this cruel and pointless war?
Do you think any of the concerns you've raised are relevant to why the West supports Ukraine?
No. I don't. I think the West supports Ukraine because it want to punish Putin and weaken Russia. And Ukraine is acceptable collateral damage.
Here's a better question:
"Why should the West still support Ukraine".
It’s likely cheaper for the west to fund Ukraine. While you might say Putin won’t go for more that’s not a guarantee and against a lot of his history.
The EU and the US would need to tie up significant resources in the area as a counterweight to Russia. Or they can just fund Ukraine today.
Every Russian leader for centuries has expanded Russian borders thru military conflict since the founding of Moscow. There is no guarantee that Moscow suddenly modernized and acts within the international order with their next leaders and every cultural indicator that the next guy would probably be like the last guy.
But there is nothing new here. The imminent demise of Ukraine has been predicted weekly in some communities since the start (looking at you Davis Sacks). You are right the west is slowing down on armaments which they should not be doing. They should be increasing them. Perhaps even sending in western troops to just end this thing.
What exactly else has Putin "gone for" in his history? While the prevalence Russian ethnicity in much of Eastern Ukraine has been used as a bit of a fig leaf, the leaf does exist -- what specific evidence leads you to believe that Putin would be interested in starting WWIII over parts of Poland or whatnot?
He has steadily increased the size of his wars since taking power.
Georgia, Chechnya (twice), South Ossetia, Syria (perhaps justified), Ukraine twice. A few smaller things.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia
All of those wars (except Syria, which everyone seemed to want their fingers in for some reason) were underway in some form since the 90s at least (ie. pre-Putin) -- "continues some pissant conflicts that have been bubbling for years" does not seem to justify the leap to "wants to dominate Eastern Europe at any cost".
Russian colonies that didn’t want to be Russian colonies like Ukraine.
That's a pretty limited set, no? All the ones that anyone might care about are NATO members anyways -- discouraging Putin from fucking about in Georgia or whatnot seems to me worth very few Ukrainian lives.
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The west is slowing arms shipments because it’s running low on them and America has a completely dysfunctional government that can’t make more. Not because it doesn’t want to.
It's hardly just America: the EU has fallen pretty far short of its promised artillery ammunition production, with what seems to be lots of finger pointing at whom should be footing the bills for expanding factories that may be shuttered as soon as the war ends.
As best as I can tell, American contributions are being limited by (1) a mismatch in kind of materiel: a war involving the US depends a lot more on air power dropping bombs and cruise missiles than millions of unguided artillery shells (ironically, both Koreas are equipped for this and have been quietly supplying their sides); (2) an unwillingness to share more advanced technology for fear of losing the advantage of its novelty: we're not giving stealth aircraft or tanks with classified armor because we'd prefer the exact performance be a surprise when we need it; and (3) because we want other parties, notably Western Europe, to increase their defense investments rather than expect Team America, World Police to show up every time they ask.
I think it's fair to add (4) that domestic American politics has reached a point where Ukraine support is no longer unconditional on the part of the opposition party, but subject to negotiations that are politically painful for the current government to concede and (5) that there are some categories of support that the US could draw from WW3 stockpiles, but refuses to (such as re-mobilization of much of the mothball-ground vehicle storage yards)
Of these, however, the most relevant are (1) (war material mismatch, particularly artillery), which is expected to start reversing in late 24/25, and (3) coalition considerations. One of the under-recognized aspects of the Biden Ukraine-supporting-coalition approach has been how much of it has been centered around involving the Europeans, as opposed to a 'fast but American-alone' approach that risked being both insufficient for the time and also giving the Europeans political pretexts to not get on board with the Ukraine support in earnest.' A particular example was the German tank issue- as frustrating as it was, if the US had delivered 'escalatory' western-armor out of the gate, there was a real and non-trivial chance the Germans would have refused to approve Lepord deliveries from anyone.
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Some of that is Republican blocking arms. Though I do think we have a lot of arms we could bring to the fight that are abandoned still. We have a lot of tanks, AFV, old F-18 etc that are being abandoned. Some things like artillery we do seem low on.
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If we value the lives and prosperity of Ukraine (and Russia) at zero than perhaps this is true.
This way of thinking is, in my mind, the "grand strategy" of which I am extremely skeptical. We should be on guard against simple narratives that paper over real life complexity. IMO, the actions of Catherine the Great have zero predictive value for what Russia will do today.
Just-so stories got us into Vietnam and Iraq. Let's not repeat the mistake against a nuclear power this time.
Russian invaders Can value their own lives they are NOT my concern. And Ukranians are adults who can make their own decisions too.
Regardless on the “next leader” the current leader has always found a new and bigger country to invade.
And nuclear power doesn’t mean anything.
These arguments are always dumb though because anything Ukraine is just a repeat of yesterday because nothing has changed. Russia goes nowhere. Ukraine doesn’t go gain much.
The only thing that remains true is Russia hasn’t offerered terms any different than the terms we’ve offered to Japan in WW2. There is no deal on the table of “just the Russian areas”.
I have zero problem with a ceasefire today that came with security guarantees with teeth - nukes for Ukraine or NATO troops as peacekeepers.
Earlier today Maryana Bezuglaya, a deputy of Ukrainian parliament, ran some polls on her facebook.
"Only for men now. In order not to be mobilized, am I ready to renounce Ukrainian citizenship?"
Results (in progress): 74% yes / 26% no
"The survey is only for women. Would I be ready to become a military account with the possibility of mobilization to rear and defense enterprises (combat positions optional) if it leads to demobilization of those who serve 24 months?"
Results (in progress): 21% yes / 79% no
"Only for women. Am I ready to become a military account with the possibility of mobilization to rear positions and defense enterprises (combat positions only optional anyway) if it opens borders to men?"
Results (in progress): 15% yes / 85% no
"Only for women. In order not to be mobilized to rear positions and to defense enterprises (combatant positions only optional) am I ready to renounce citizenship?"
Results (in progress): 65% yes / 35% no
Yes, facebook polls is not the best source of polling due to possibility of brigading (which definitely happened - poll was posted in anti-conscription telegram group, where I found it). But the fact that a deputy is having this discourse, which is something I wouldn't imagine a year ago, on her public page is indicative enough of the public's concerns and grievances.
And the 'Ukrainian adults' you're speaking of don't have many options to 'make their own decisions'. If one doesn't want to get conscripted, here are his options: illegally crossing the border, while running the risk of getting spotted by a border patrol drone (oh by the way, they are planning to make a 5km no go zone near the border, I wonder why), paying a bribe to a medical professional/conscription officer/border guard (at the start of the war could get away with $2k for a volunteer pass that would allow you to leave the country easily, but now that amount could maybe get you a delay from conscription aka 'the conscription officer will close his eyes while you leave the building'-style, rates for better options now start at $5k), or have his wife/mother/sister do chores for him while he doesn't leave his living space, although that may soon not be an option since a few regions in Ukraine have announced plans for allowing conscription officers to go door to door to looks for refuseniks.
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I don't see any moral difference between a Ukrainian conscript or a Russia one. I think it's a sure sign of consensus building when some people are treated as subhuman.
It is literally conscripts who are dying. They did not make their own decisions to die and many would have fled given the chance.
What deal is the US offering? Surely if there was an effort to negotiate the war could be ended in a way to minimize suffering.
I see. Russian one is aggressor (yes, in smaller or larger part unwilling) and potential danger to me.
If someone murders people because they were blackmailed or something I have much lesser problem with them being shot.
Also, Russian soldiers can surrender, escape, emigrate, frag officers and so on.
I addressed this in a previous comment but you're asking for a level of moral purity that is impossible.
What percent of Nazi officers did that? What percent of Confederate officers did that? Answer: almost none except to save their own skin.
I would bet that if YOU had been born a Russian, or a German, or a Confederate you would have gone along with the consensus. Because almost everyone does.
Saying that Russian lives have no value because they are not the 1% morally pure is crazy to me. Now, Scott Alexander? He might just take the moral action. He gave his kidney to a stranger after all. But unless you have done something equally courageous, I'm going to bet you'd be just like the 99% who follow orders. (And so would I probably as well).
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They can emigrate. And besides the war is popular in Russia.
If a person decides to be a soldier then their path is their choice. Even if their a conscript they can surrender to Ukraine. These options might involve some risks but they do have options. You act like they are non playable characters.
This kind of reminds me of those free range eggs where the chickens have a 2x2 patch of grass that they could theoretically use but almost exclusively don't.
It's a way for people to completely negate the moral worth of another person. Why didn't the Confederate soldiers desert? Why didn't the Nazi? If they didn't surrender, fuck it, they deserve to die. After all, 1% did the "right thing".
Notice, however, that this assumes there even is a "right thing". Had the Germans won, perhaps they'd be arguing the same from the opposite perspective.
Or perhaps in 50 years, any non-vegan will be similar perceived as a moral monster. After all, there are some people today who are vegans. I don't know. I just err on the side of not killing hundreds of thousands of humans unless there is a clear and obvious reason why it's necessary.
In any case, I think we're getting sidetracked. We should end this war for the sake of the Ukrainians even if Russian lives have zero value to you.
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