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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   3217 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for April 7, 2024

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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Avian flu has started jumping to humans.

Hypothetically, if it starts transmitting from human to human easily, causing a pandemic which would be a lot more deadly than covid, how would you invest in order to profit, if you were to survive? What would be your "no use for money if I'm dead, but if I survive I'll multiply my savings" strat?

I think based on the COVID response, go with online services— instacart, Grubhub, online streaming, Zoom type online services, basically anything that replicates an in-person service at home. I would anticipate at least an attempt at a lockdown if the flu is bad enough.

I have noticed that Bitcoin goes up in times of uncertainty, and then goes down when things get calmer. But the first rule of Bitcoin is not to buy it when it's back in the news, and it's been reaching highs. So probably don't buy Bitcoin now.

Might not be quite as true anymore. I think a significant reason why it went up lately, and why it might not plummet as much anymore, is because a lot of ETFs bought into it. And more are set to buy in over the next couple of years. It might be "here to stay" in a bigger way than before.

But it is something I've observed as well. People want gold and the biggest crypto when a crisis happens.

In the initial phase there will be huge wealth-destruction as industry, logistics and so on get hammered. You want to be shorting travel, energy and such or at least in cash, ready to buy low. Then you need to follow the moneyprinting and fiscal support wave.

How much more deadly would it be than COVID?

No one knows yet, but 30-50% death rate has been mooted.

Heard the same claim about covid at the end of 2019. Fool me once...

So the Black Death, which was a catastrophe but didn’t cause civilizational collapse.

For the record, I don’t believe this report without much better evidence.

Even 30% is major unpredictable transformation of society level, I think investment advice is hard in that scenario.

Yes, there wouldn't be a recognizable civilization left. Guess those without land where they can be self sufficient are screwed in that case.

Apparently it primarily affects children and young people. Older people above 50 are very rarely killed (just like Spanish flu). I think in that case civilization would probably survive since that leaves the people who are primarily in charge and can maintain things for a couple more decades. Obviously losing so many young people would radically transform many social dynamics. I think total collapse likely needs in excess of 80-90% mortality rate.

The problem is that medium ground where things can change in unpredictable ways but it isn’t the end of the world.

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