domain:natesilver.net
phailyoor
15m ago
The occupied parts of Ukraine are primarily ethincally Russian and speak Russian. Even if they don't support occupation, they aren't going to be the most hardcore zelensky supporters.
Even so, as far as I can tell gorilla groups are still able to operate in occupied ukraine and mount attacks.
Did someone on the Motte want not just a rematch, but to ban Biden from round the elections?
Also, funnily enough the Romanians don't really dispute the integrity of the votes themselves, they only accused the guy of TikTok voodoo.
Thoroughlygruntled
23m ago
One set of my grandparents had living wills and the other did not. I can attest that setting up a living will is an incredible gift to your loved ones. It's much easier to make difficult choices when you already have iron-clad proof of someone's wishes back when they were sound of mind.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
24m ago
Socialisation is similarly within countries, for the obvious fact that Europe is a multilingual continent of dozens of countries and elites aren't all jetting to the same city every weekend.
A lot of them spend their tine in Brussels. And if it's not that, maybe you can give me a plausible explanation for gender self-ID laws sweaping a decent chunk of the continent
As far as I can tell, none of the authoritarian measures you mentioned have anything to do with the EU.
Aren't they literally just now discussing mandatory scanning of all chats in phone apps? Weren't they strong-arming Ireland to ramp up their hate speech laws, like yesterday.
The cancelled election in Romania was done by the Romanian judicary.
Pretty sure I remember EU big-wigs making a lot of oise about this being what they want done. If you mean that this wasn't done with formal power, that doesn't matter, it's not hiw they work.
I'm not sure which arrested opposition politicians you are talking about
Was thinking of LePen. She was convicted to prevent her from running in the next elections. She got a prispn sentence, though is allowed to serve it under house arrest, at which point, I suppose we can quibble if that counts as arrest or not. My point is less about being thrown in a cell, and more about using bogus charges to get rid of political opposotion.
Do you live in Europe?
Yes, my entire life.
Because this reads like someone who just thinks of it as the USA plus funny accents, which is wrong.
I'd say it reads like someone who lived in several European countries, and noticed that despite the cultural differences, the same dystopian program is being rammed through everywhere.
TeknOShEeP
26m ago
Er, where are you located? That sounds just ridiculous enough to interest me.
Throwaway05
27m ago
Nobody does any teaching? Nobody has any Medical Students or Residents?
That doesn't seem right.
Could be regional though - Philadelphia (which is super dense) has nearly as many medical schools as the entire state of Florida, if you live in a place without trainees you aren't going to be teaching.
That said if you work for a hospital you should be doing something outside of your clinical duties (teaching, research, committee seats, extra jobs in the department like holding a medical director title). If you own your own practice you need to deal with the management side of this.
It'd be possible to work for someone to take on the least amount of responsibility (and the specialties you name are some of the ones it would be easier to do*) but you'd be leaving money on the table, not necessarily working any less (since teaching, research and administrative can eat up some FTE) and it is by no means typical.
*Family medicine in most practice environments is checking their in basket and finishing charts outside of business hours at least somewhat.
All of this is stay nothing of call responsibilities - someone is managing a phone line, going into the hospital PRN if needed, for most specialties. Ophthalmology is small and has rare but serious call responsibilities (going into the hospital) and has frequent enough need to phone triage. I'd be shocked if that person doesn't have some call. Radiology and Physiatry can dodge that. Neurology can be one of the busiest call specialties depending on practice environment, same with Family Medicine.
I would wager your friends do more than you think they just don't mention it or it doesn't come up.
Thoroughlygruntled
30m ago
Both of my father's parents had signed and notarized DNR (do not resuscitate) orders drafted, with copies kept with their lawyer and stuck to the fridge with a magnet, since they were in their early 70s. And they established power of attorney in their children with very clear instructions that when in doubt, pull the plug. It's not exactly euthanasia, but there are steps you can take to pre-establish consent if you're proactive.
It's morbid, but it's never too early to set your affairs in order. Don't trust your fate to the decision-making skills of a dementia-ridden potato and your grieving children.
quiet_NaN
34m ago
She went through all the loops and hoops, she didn't change her mind.
This is a very critical point. By saying "MAID is in principle on the table for depression", you create some incentive to engage with the medical system.
If instead you take the firm stand that suicide is bad and that you will gladly lock up patients who talk about suicidal ideation until they learn to credibly deny having such thoughts, that is sending a very different signal.
As others have pointed out here, anyone who is not bedbound has a BATNA, which is to kill themselves against the wishes of broader society. Unilateral suicides impose great costs on broader society. You can not let your loved ones know lest they call the cops on you -- unless you trust them to approve your defection. While medically, killing a person in a way which is both painless and also not highly disturbing to onlookers is a solved problem, the situation for the average person is very different, and they may well prefer an option which is good at delivering a quick death but traumatizing for the onlookers. Jumping in front of trains has massive externalities, for example.
Knowing that your loved one is opting for MAID for depression is terrible, but what is worse is coming home and finding them dangling from a rope -- without you ever having had a chance to talk to them about it or say goodbye to them. If offering MAID for depression turns 10 suicides into 7 suicides (who do not want to jump through the hoops) plus 1 medically assisted death and two patients who can be treated to a level where their life is positive-sum for them, that seems like a clear win.
Rov_Scam
35m ago
@self_made_human, it's been a couple of weeks since we had that AI discussion and you agreed to run a couple trials for me. I apologize for not getting to it sooner, but I had some big idea that I was going to find representative examples for each category and see how well it did, and update the algorithm to be more precise with regard to how I actually do it manually, but I of course didn't have the time to spend and it fell by the wayside. So I'll just throw out two releases to get you started for now, for which the suboptimal algorithm is irrelevant:
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The Turtles - Grim Reaper of Love
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Henry Paul Band - Feel the Heat
I'll try to post some more that present different challenges to see how the model handles them, but these two highlight something that the free models of ChatGTP seemed to struggle with.
To make things easier, these are both American releases. So you don't have to look back, here are the instructions:
For major label albums released circa 1991 or later, an official street date should be available. This gets first priority. If a release date is provided by a reputable source such as RateYourMusic, Wikipedia, or 45Cat, use that date, giving 45Cat priority. If a reputable source only provides a month of release, use that as a guideline for further research, subject to change if the weight of the evidence suggests that this is incorrect. If any other source purports a specific release date, use that date, provided it does not conflict with information provided in reputable sources. Other sources include other websites, Google search results, and message board comments. For US releases from 1978 to the present, use the date of publication from the US Copyright Office website if available. For US releases from 1972 to 1978, use the date of publication from the US Copyright physical indexes, images of which are available on archive.org, if available. For releases prior to 1972 or are otherwise unavailable from the above sources, determine the "usual day of release" of the record label, that being the day of the week that the majority of the issues with known release dates were released. Be aware that this can change over time. If no information is available regarding the usual day of release, default to Monday. If ARSA chart data for the release is available, assign the release date to the usual day of release immediately prior to the date of the chart. (ARSA is a website that compiles local charts from individual radio stations). If ARSA chart data is unavailable, assign the release date to the usual day of release the week prior to the date when the release was reviewed by Billboard, first appeared in a chart, or was advertised in Billboard. If ARSA and Billboard data are both available, use the earlier date (ARSA will almost always be earlier unless there was a substantial delay between release and initial charting). If neither ARSA nor Billboard data is available, use a similar system with any other trade publication. If no trade publication or chart data is available, determine the order of release based on catalog number. Assume that the items are released sequentially and are evenly spaced. Use known release dates (or release months) to calculate a reasonable date of release based on available information, including year of release (if known), month of release (if known) and usual day of release. If none of the above can be determined, make a reasonable estimate based on known information.
The following caveats also apply:
For non-US releases, domestic releases often trailed their foreign counterparts by several months. Any data derived from US sources must take this into account when determining if the proposed estimate is reasonable.
If the date of recording is known, any estimated release date must take into consideration a reasonable amount of time between recording and release based on what was typical of the era. For independent releases, dates of release from Bandcamp may be used provided they don't conflict with known information (i.e. sometimes Bandcamp release dates will use the date of upload, or the date of a CD reissue).
JarJarJedi
36m ago
They had tons of resources, and there never had been "total blockades". How do you think they built miles of tunnels and thousands of rockets? Where do you think all their weapons are from? Did they magic it out from sea water and sand? No, they used the materials that came for declared civilian purposes, and money sent by petro-emirates, Iran and other deep-pocketed Muslim sponsors and they used it exactly for what they wanted - preparing for war. And what they coudn't get in openly, they got clandestinely via border tunnels, which were numerous and virtually ignored by Egypt. They had all the industry they wanted - it's just the industry they wanted is making rockets, not tractors or computers. If Hamas wanted to turn Gaza into Taiwan - there would be billions of oil dollars available for them to do that. But the whole point of Gaza is to be a problem for Israel, and the whole point of Hamas is to wage war on Israel, everything else is secondary. And since the population of Gaza does not seem to have any problem with that goal - they have what they have.
It's a prison.
It's a weird kind of prison, where offering to leave is called racist and genocide, and asking to at least stop making weapons and lobbing them over the fence is taken as crazy talk. I don't think there's another "prison" like that in the world, where the inmates have full control, regularly try (very often successfully) to murder the guards, and the guards respond with providing them free food and offering them to leave whenever they want, which is always rejected.
MadMonzer
Pedo! Pedo! Pedo! Out! Out! Out!
45m ago
This argument worked great some decade ago, when Europe could plausibly claim to be as free as the US. When they're canceling elections because the wrong candidate won,
I note, without comment, that my most downvoted posts on the Motte are those claiming, correctly, that the 2020 US Presidential election was not rigged.
JarJarJedi
47m ago
Oh no, you are not fair to them. They built a lot of infrastructure. Every school, hospital or mosque had under it a bunker for storing arms, hiding troops and supplies for Hamas. Every schoolyard and hospital grounds double as missile launching site. Miles of tunnels have been built, and not just some rat holes, but tunnels you can live in for months, with ventilation, facilities, food storage, multiple exits in private houses and businesses all over the place. It's a lot of infrastructural work, and they have been very busy for two decades. It is true that this infrastructure has only one goal - war with Israel - and is completely useless otherwise, but I don't see the citizens of Gaza to mind too much. Surely, when they are losing the war, they don't like it, but the whole concept of being in eternal war with Israel, even if this means living in medieval conditions and spending all the money on building more war infrastructure and sacrificing all their kids to the war effort - they are completely fine with this concept. They actually want this, more than anything. Maybe not 100% of them, but about 90% for sure. Their only problem with the war is that they are currently losing badly.
prungus
49m ago
Most doctors have some combination of research, teaching, administrative, and managerial duties all of which bleed outside of traditional work hours in the usual ways.
I have a few doctor friends, most in family med, 1 in ophthalmology, 1 in podiatry (debatable) , and my wife's family are mostly doctors, including radiology, physiatry, and neurology.
Ive never heard of any of them doing any "research, teaching, administrative, or managerial work" past residency. They all seem to work 30-40h a week doing pretty much "doctor stuff" only.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
50m ago
I’m not going to say it’s impossible that this one is the one, but I think as far as putting money down, I’d wait a year or so to see if the hype is just hype or if it’s real, or if there’s not going to be issues with side effects making the product only “worth the risk” for people who are either going to lose several hundred pounds or die. If the product is only going to be used on the population of people who weigh 300+ lbs, that’s a much smaller customer base than if it can be used by every woman looking to lose ten pounds to fit a swimsuit or wedding dress. If it’s just morbid obesity, it’s life changing for those people, but I don’t think it’s something that’s going to spike the stock price like if you cured a common and deadly disease like cancer
self_made_human
Grippy socks, grippy box
50m ago
Disease is defined somewhat tautologically, since we usually define health (or the WHO does) as:
a state of complete physical, mental, and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity
Google tells me that they haven't bothered to define disease. Well, a disease is anything that impacts you negatively and isn't something like a car crash or a bullet to the head.
Wikipedia goes for:
A disease is a particular abnormal condition that adversely affects the structure or function of all or part of an organism and is not immediately due to any external injury
This has plenty of room for arguments, even if I find some deeply stupid or misguided. Some deaf and autistic people claim that trying to cure their conditions, or that of their children, is medicalizing a "normal" or equally valid state of being, and tantamount to genocide.
I have no sympathy for such a position, sure, mild autism isn't that bad, but if they're non-verbal and low-functioning, almost everyone wants them cured.
Fortunately, the sufferers of most diseases seek cures. There's no movement to redefine psoriasis, fungal feet infections or heart attacks as a manifestation of the human condition that shouldn't be eliminated. Doctors just nod at the dumb stuff, and keep doing what seems sensible. Or at least I do.
Tree
54m ago
I don’t know how your friend managed that; In the original thread, the OP of little faith had given the put he dared us to buy – CCL was trading at 42, the 30 put a year out was 1.35. The next month the stock fell to 12 ; so that ‘s 13x, then it fell even further to 8, before rebounding, so if held till expiration, 7x.
This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a court of people who don't all share the same biases
I don't see how this implies that any user must submit the literal first draft they write.
Consider the following:
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You write a comment or essay.
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You do an edit pass and proof read it. Corrections happen.
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You might ask your buddy to take a look. They raise some valid points, and you make corrections.
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You post. Then people come up with all kinds of responses. Some thoughtful and raising valid concerns. Some of them that make you wonder what the fuck is going on. (You must be, to some degree, a rather masochistic individual to be an active Mottizen)
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You either edit your essay to incorporate corrections, clarifications, or start digging into topics in sub-threads.
The place where LLMs come in is stage 2/3, at least for me. I ask them if I am genuinely steelmanning the argument I'm making, if I haven't misrepresented my sources or twisted the interpretation. If you do not objection to having a friend look at something you've written, I do not understand why you would have concerns about someone asking an LLM. The real issue, is, as far as I'm concerned, people simply using the ease of LLM issue to spam or to trivially stonewall faster than a normal person can write, or to simply not even bother to engage with the argument in the first place. I think I've framed my stance as "I don't mind if you use ChatGPT in a conversation with me, as long as your arguments are your own and you are willing to endorse anything you borrow from what it says."
As evidence I've shared suggests, all arguments are my own. I have made sure to carefully double check anything new LLMs might have to add.
If the LLM's at any point are able to completely correct your argument then why post it here at all? We 're supposed to argue to understand, so if the LLM gets you to understanding then literally the reason for the existence of this forum vanishes. It's just a blog post at best.
Is that how it works? Nobody told me!
On a more serious note: Do you actually think that writing a well-reasoned, thoughtful and insightful essay is a guarantee that nobody here will come and argue with you?
I wish that were true. At the bare minimum, the population of the Motte is extremely heterogeneous, and someone will find a way to critique you from their own idiosyncratic perspective.
That is the point. That is why I come here, to polish my wits and engage in verbal spars with gentleman rules at play.
A perfectly argued and buttressed position would probably not get much discussion engagement because what is there to say? You may be far from that point right now, but maybe just keep it in mind.
I genuinely think that is impossible in practice. There's a reason for that saying about every modus tollens having a modus ponens. Someone will come in and challenge your beliefs here, even if the topic is what anime you like. There is a lot of fundamental difference in both opinion and normative, epistemic and moral frameworks here!
In the limit, values are orthogonal to intelligence. If I was relying on some ASI to craft the perfect essay about how fans of Tokyo Ghoul should seppuku, then what's stopping someone from coming in and using their ASI to argue the opposite?
We do not have ASI. An LLM cannot replace me today. The day has yet to come when shooting the shit with internet strangers is made obsolete for my purposes. I would be sad if that day actually comes, but I think it's a good while off.
In the meantime, I'm here to dance.
Eupraxia
Of all words spoken, all things read / most true was that which went unsaid
1hr ago
Well, the lipostat theory would suggest that the obese already suffer from disrupted homeostasis via leptin resistance. Under that paradigm, GLP-1s are more akin to insulin for diabetics than more tolerance-building substances.
cjet79
1hr ago
People are not allowed to express an interest in committing suicide without being subject to a whole of oversight and interruption to their life. This can be a good thing to prevent suicide, but it makes all survey data about suicidal willingness a little suspect.
I'd also say that every suicide that happens via someone torturing themselves to death via one of the harder methods is something that could have been prevented with more painless methods being available. At least they could have had a more peaceful death.
SSCReader
1hr ago
I also, simultaneously, feed them into a more powerful reasoning model such as o3 or Gemini 2.5 Pro for the purposes of noting any flaws in reasoning. They are very good at finding reasoning flaws, less so at catching errors in citations. Still worth using.
But isn't that the point of posting here?
"This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a court of people who don't all share the same biases"
If you're testing your reasoning against an LLM first then you're kind of skipping part of the entire point of this space no? We should pointing out flaws in your reasoning. You're making an arguably better individual post/point, at the expense of other readers engagement and back and forth. Every time the LLM points out flaws in your reasoning you are reducing the need for us, your poor only human interlocuters. You're replacing us with robots! You monster! Ahem.
If the LLM's at any point are able to completely correct your argument then why post it here at all? We 're supposed to argue to understand, so if the LLM gets you to understanding then literally the reason for the existence of this forum vanishes. It's just a blog post at best.
It's like turning up for sex half way to climax from a vibrating fleshlight then getting off quickly with your partner. If your goal is just having a baby (getting a perfect argument) then it's certainly more efficient. But it kind of takes away something from the whole experience of back and forth (so to speak) with your partner I would suggest.
Now it's not as bad as just ejaculating in a cup and doing it with a turkey baster, start to finish, but it's still a little less...(self_made_)human?
Not saying it should be banned (even if it could be reliably) but I'd probably want to be careful as to how much my argument is refined by AI. A perfectly argued and buttressed position would probably not get much discussion engagement because what is there to say? You may be far from that point right now, but maybe just keep it in mind.
TeknOShEeP
1hr ago
Lol, options are so much fun. They will fuck you 99.99% of the time. But the one time they dont... your broker calls you on January 27 about that Gamestop $10 call you bought 6 months ago on the advice of some idiot degen who's math actually penciled out. "Dude... you gonna exercise or what?"
It didn't take me very long, since my first attempt at using o3 seemed to produce good results. I'm sharing the full conversation below, and it seems to be reasonable to me? You're the expert here, so you should be able to tell if o3 has mucked up.
https://chatgpt.com/s/t_6896665a38088191a35a94848d57c05d
To summarize:
o3 claims that:
For the other release:
It is worth noting that o3 ran into some operational difficulties. It desperately wanted to try and paste search parameters into a search engine on a site, but the interface I'm using doesn't allow it to. There is, in fact, a product called Agent by OpenAI that can control a mouse and keyboard, and which could plausibly do that.
o3, per the messages, is now asking me to go ahead and look up the song on the site if suggests, and is happy to examine the results.
I also ran something known as Deep Research, also by OpenAI in the background.
https://chatgpt.com/s/t_6896678a10508191b7076b3377144bec
To summarize, this ends up with a release date of Monday, June 6, 1966 for GRoL. For FTH, it claims that "reasonable estimate is June 30, 1980 as the official release date"
I also tried Gemini 2.5 Pro and Claude 4.0 Sonnet (the latter is good, but not the best).
Gemini:
Claude seems to have struggled the most:
For GRoL
For FTH:
I personally checked one of the PDFs o3 found, and it seemed to support its claim. Let me know if any links are broken in the share chat, or if you'd like me to try something else (such as manually search and share results with o3)
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