domain:noahpinion.blog
sodiummuffin
1d ago
As for the “migrant crime” angle, I want to point out that Scotland is not England, and certainly not Rotherham. The “migrant problem” is much less pronounced here.
From the same city:
BBC: Grooming gang convicted of raping women in Dundee
While official sources do not mention ethnicity, commenters online (from before the recent incident) appear to believe these Romanian gang members are ethnically Romani. Other commenters viewing a picture of the Bulgarian couple believe they are also Romani. Personally I am no EthnoGuessr expert and can't identify any of them except that they do seem to be vaguely non-white.
Outside Edinburgh or Glasgow, brown skin is still a curiosity, more likely to prompt a friendly question than suspicion.
I think the low population of non-whites actually makes it less likely to be a coincidence? (Though non-coincidence isn't the same thing as guilt, for example the children could be harassing them over their race if they associate that race with local gangs.) Especially if they and the prior grooming gang arrests in the same city are both indeed Romani, which only make up 0.2% of the Scottish population. Unfortunately I can't find any source on the Romani population in Dundee. The Romani population in all of Scotland is 6,500 and the population of Dundee is 150,000. The "Romani in Dundee" Facebook group has 2,100 members, but it's public and I don't know how many spambot members Facebook groups tend to have.
Fruck
Lacks all conviction
1d ago
Rex asks frantically as he throws blunt papers and bongs out of his car.
Fruck
Lacks all conviction
1d ago
You forgot one (or weren't granular enough for my liking) - the poors.
This thread will not shift any priors.
Could we make this like a signature that gets appended to every op?
Sunshine
1d ago
Of course, I have every confidence that some corners of the internet, including select denizens of The Motte, will find this hopelessly unconvincing. If your current epistemic stance is “If she floats, she’s a witch; if she sinks, she’s a witch,” then no combination of facts, logic, or official statements will ever suffice. If your model of the world is that everyone is lying except you and your Telegram group, my ability to shift your priors is probably limited.
This hardly seems fair.
First of all, saying that "no combination of facts, logic, or official statements will ever suffice [to shift your priors]" is like saying that "no combination of tanks, nuclear missiles, or hugs will ever suffice to dissuade Putin from invading Ukraine." If all you've tried are hugs then you're not allowed to handwave tanks and missiles as equally useless. Likewise, if all you have are official statements, please don't demean our intelligence by putting them on the same level as facts or logic. Official statements aren't evidence of anything. They're just statements made all the less convincing because they emanate from the officials who are under suspicion in the first place.
Secondly, I already know the Bulgarian guy who was holding the camera phone is a creep. Do you know how I know? Because pointing a camera at a 12-year-old girl and following her around while she's clearly trying to disengage is A-tier creepy behaviour. You can try to "shift my priors" all you want, but I think he's a creep because he filmed himself acting like a creep. The video itself may not provide evidence that he's committed any particular crimes, but if that pattern of behaviour was repeated over a longer period of time I think it would rise to the level of criminal harassment. It would also invite justified suspicions of pedophilia.
gattsuru
1d ago
I'm not sure I'm calling for it now: the above post is a steelman, and one with a number of caveats, qualifications, and carveouts.
There are valid counterarguments, like what extent smaller competitors licensing ARM chips might be able to pull an underdog reversal in a big hurry, or how much a lot of central infrastructure needs modern processing power rather than just having grown like a goldfish to fill it, or whether a failing IBM might fracture such that its foundry side survived rather than got pulled down with the rest. There are some less credible but at least plausible ones: maybe China's Not That Bad after all, or going to collapse under its own inertia before any of this could be relevant, or military/economic considerations are a lot less important than social ones.
But these aren't new considerations, either; they're the sort of thing people were bringing up in response to the CHIPS Act itself, too. It's long been a point of controversy in even libertarian circles what tradeoffs exist between private and public management of matters like disaster response, military readiness, telecommunications, and core public welfare. I'd like if there were simple, easy, Big Head Press-style answers, but if they exist they're not self-demonstrating.
cartman
1d ago
While I appreciate that you make your point fairly reasonably, this still seems like a bit of a ludicrous reaction to me. I agree that in the majority of situations, a kid waving an axe or a hammer around is not very likely to murder someone. but as a stranger and not the responsible parent of this child, it is not my job to assess how serious they are about harming me with an axe and I think it is not a realistic proposition to expect any other sane adult stranger to waive their safety in the face of someone threatening them because it's not LIKELY to turn out with them murdered. I do not have the skills to categorically determine which type of axe waving person is in front of me.
From personal experience, while a normal kid might wave a hammer around, no kid that I associated with to my knowledge ever actively threatened someone with a tool like that once they were anywhere close to their teens. This is not 'normal' behaviour to be gently course corrected imo. I think it's kinda serious.
Pulling out a phone and recording is a bit of a weird move in most situations I agree, but I could see a situation where it might seem reasonable in the moment if they started threatening to accuse you of things and you thought you had a chance to "prove" otherwise in the heat of the moment.
Celestial-body-NOS
Supra tumulum tuum, astra nobis.
1d ago
"We can neither confirm nor deny any dealings with that individual."
Celestial-body-NOS
Supra tumulum tuum, astra nobis.
1d ago
Fuentes is Bozo the Clown.
Rex
1d ago
Can you tell me more? How often? Do you see them smoking a bowl to know it’s pot? Or do you spot a hot box? Smell or sight?
Celestial-body-NOS
Supra tumulum tuum, astra nobis.
1d ago
At some point, an axe made an appearance.
Was the axe wielded by a poltergeist?
Or was it the anthropomorphic axe from this cartoon by Tom Gauld?
anti_dan
1d ago
Nick Fuentes is probably the second most important person to watch on the Republican side after Trump himself.
This is an incredible assertion with little evidence supporting it. As far as I have seen Fuentes occupies the space of fairly ineffective troll. The man who one would consider to be his most obvious right leaning nemesis-Ben Shapiro, wields far more influence and power than he does, and the gap is not narrowing, Daily Wire is basically Fox News of 2000, but for today, and more. And they just ejected Candace Owens like dehydrated feces on a lunar flight without losing audience at all, in fact, most evidence shows them up post-Owens. Daily Wire has produced multiple popular podcasts, feature length movies and documentaries (some which would have shifted the culture significantly), and launched various brands that people seem to buy as luxuries.
OTOH, Nick Fuentes has done none of that, and survives mostly on the energy of people freaked out about him. If you are on the left or Left-adjacent Grey grey like Hanania, you might think this sort of freak out is what defines Trump. But that isn't true at all. What defines Trump is how much people actually like him. He's popular and cool. His base loves him. He is occasionally based, but really, is mostly moderate with vigor. His whole 2nd term has been him taking on a bunch of issues that Americans overwhelmingly support him on (often at 90/10, 80/20 numbers) and just saying loudly "lets do what the majority thinks is good" and then getting yelled at by the minority who happen to also hold positions of power in the media/DNC. Fuentes can kinda do the media freakout part, but he has none of the base appeal part, and, crucially, none of the picking good issues part.
I knew something was up with this when the alleged assailant was the one who recorded the video.
As others pointed out, this is completely nornal behavior from various creeps.
I agreed with Hoffmeister when he said something was off about this. In particular, the girl's behavior doesn't exactly scream "big sister trying to scare away stranger" or whatever was being sold. On the other hand, the way the video conveniently starts off not showing any context, and the way she meekly displays her weapons when pushed is inconsistant with whatever you guys are trying to sell.
ahobata
1d ago
As for the “migrant crime” angle, I want to point out that Scotland is not England, and certainly not Rotherham. The “migrant problem” is much less pronounced here.
Maybe, but there still is one. A Romanian (gypsy, judging from the complexion?) grooming gang was caught operating in Dundee in 2022.
WandererintheWilderness
1d ago
The information that this was a Bulgarian couple, rather than a single man, should surely be significant. Surely even a genuine pedo would be unlikely to go after a pair of preteen girls with his own wife right there? Not saying it couldn't happen, but still.
zPvQINBQvfFR
1d ago
It's a depressing second world country with a population shrinking from outmigration because it's poorer than Mexico.
By what metric is it poorer than Mexico?
Hoffmeister25
American Bukelismo Enthusiast
1d ago
I believe that my theory is the most plausible of the available explanations I’ve considered.
Do you think the difference in the damage a 12 year old and an adult could potentially do with an axe is really so significant? That seems ludicrous to me.
What she could do is one thing, what she's likely to do is another. A kid who's raided daddy's tool shed to look tough needs a stern talking-to from her parents or other authority figures, but frankly, as much because of the risk of injury to herself as anything else. It's not that much easier for a kid to kill or seriously injure someone with a hatchet of the type seen in the video relative to, say, an ordinary hammer. Would you call the cops on a young kid waving a hammer around a playground? I'd try to do something, if I felt civic-minded, and I might involve the police if I had to, but "record evidence in case this goes to court" would not by my first or even my third move. If it did get as far as A Police Matter™ I would feel I'd failed in my intervention; that I'd escalated the situation way beyond what should ideally happen.
WandererintheWilderness
1d ago
In the US she would have been shot (and the shooter would walk free)
Really? A twelve-year-old girl? I'm not saying it could never happen, but still, hardly business as usual. Now if we were talking about a boy, especially one with a couple of years on her - maybe. Hell, if she had a gun. But I don't think "tween girl is messing around with a hatchet" would inevitably, or even likely, end with a dead body. And if it did, I'm confident there would be a massive media circus, nor would I gamble on the shooter's odds of "walking free".
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
You know what's better than tit for tat in game theory? Tit for tat with occasional forgiveness.
Wouldn't it be outperformed by tit for tat with occasional unwarranted defection?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
Obama-Trump transition of power.
You mean the way one ordered the FBI to spy on the other, hoping he'd find something disqualifying?
A_Wee_Hearts_Toll
1d ago
But not sword canes?!
anti_dan
1d ago
This really isnt persuasive to me at all. Posting video online where someone over-reacts to your jerk move is pretty standard fare. We have the Shiloh Hendrix case, thousands of cases where women dress provocatively at the gym for the purpose of cussing out men who looked at their butt or bosom, trans people being aggro then filming clerks who "misgendered" them, and many more. I think the term is outrage farming. Its super common. My presumption now is that anyone filming a sole, private citizen, in public at a non-public event is probably a bad actor. You dont just film a 14 year old girl, even if she is being an asshole and brandishing a hatchet if you are a normal guy. A normal guy just shrugs and leaves. Video guy tries to provoke the situation so he can get a good video. Whether he is just a jerk video guy, a snitch, or a creepy rapist remains an open question. But I see no situation where he is actually a positive contributor to the community.
gattsuru
1d ago
Fair; it's definitely not that they were trying to be the next desktop infrastructure, and it's not like what they're doing instead is easy. It makes sense for them to focus where they've focused. If I ever have the free time, I'd love to get some experience working with the IMX8 stuff as an embedded linux tool.
But even compared to where Freescale was in 2002 versus the market segment NXP is aiming for in 2025, the difference seems bigger. Some of that's just the top of the market has gotten much higher -- Razr mattered, but it mattered pre-smartphone; some of the network equipment goes in a similar boat -- but it's something that separates the business from being meaningful competition for most of Intel's most important stuff.
Throwaway05
1d ago
-If you haven't been before do some of the touristy stuff. Much of it is overrated but it is still worth doing once (ex: Time Square).
-NYC is arguably the greatest city in the world. With the most selection in the world. This means shopping (for a partner maybe?). You ever wanted incredible Indian food but don't have it in your usual area? What about something more specific like Cambodian? Pull up some lists of stuff and go to town.
-You'll be there for a minute, depending on what your situation is it may be worth doing something like taking Amtrak to Philly for a day trip. If you are coming in from say Toronto or otherwise have limited access to the east coast you'd be surprised at how much you can do nearby. You'll never run out of things in NYC but it can be overwhelming and adding extra stuff can be paradoxically helpful.
-I've never been to an IRL Motte/SSC diaspora meet up but I've always figured you'd have a chance at getting some of the paranoid opsec types with an open invite to some location instead of a direct "lets meet up." Food for thought?
This just sounds like a fun afternoon for me and the pals when I was a kid. What kind of statist nonsense is this, that you want to deprive kids of the right to yell and wave harmless "weapons"?
More options
Context Copy link