domain:natesilver.net
hydroacetylene
20hr ago
It seems worth noting that there are very few chaste virgins sleeping with Casanova. Very promiscuous people mostly have sex with each other- even if certain cads like to insist they introduce chaste virgins to the lifestyle on the reg.
hydroacetylene
20hr ago
I wasn't so much advocating sexual liberalisation or disparaging sexual traditionalism as much as I was simply pointing out that if we're accepting a sexual framework, we need to fully accept all of what it means. Sexual traditionalism doesn't just mean "shotgun weddings for men" and "penalties for cads for having deflowered a woman" but also stigma and penalty for women who have premarital sex or tart themselves up inappropriately or use sex/intimacy to wheedle money out of men, the ability for the men around them to vet who they're going out with (since they will have to defend any breach of their honour), and responsibilities for both husband and wife in a marriage to put out and provide sex to their spouse. The responsibility for maintaining a pro-social scenario was not placed only on one party.
What makes you think I have a problem with any of that?
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
20hr ago
You can edge without gooning, but you cannot goon without edging
So say skibidi
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
20hr ago
watching 10 videos at once for hours on a multiscreen setup laying down in a reclining chair while vaping weed.
I've always looked down on "gooning" as degeneracy of a high order but damn you made it sound kind of fun
I think I just miss smoking in the reclining chair I had before I moved out on my own
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
20hr ago
If the AI was searching then it's about as valuable as searching it yourself, which is how everyone learns everything now.
If they had AI guess with no search grounding, then yeah, that's useless
RoyGBivensAction
Zensunni Scientologist
20hr ago
t's like after being released into the wild, all the good women got locked down or went to ground, and only the predators were out at night.
Ah, this reminds me of an effortpost I wanted to write. There is definitely something to this. After college, there is absolutely a group of women who totally vanish. Unless one encounters them at work or TJMaxx (or whatever place they use to sate their shopping addiction) or the grocery store, it's effectively impossible to meet them.
hydroacetylene
20hr ago
No, I have not.
I am unwilling to go into particularly great detail, even with strangers on the internet, as it is a rather... personal subject. I suppose I brought it up though.
I had the guidance of a priest overseeing it, who doubled as a spiritual director. I remember a lot of talk therapy focused on inculcating a more normative masculinity(which included attraction to women, but also the general idea of it- I learned to like sports as well). I had a therapy workbook by someone Dutch... Van Ardweg I think? There wasn't a lot of specific focus on sex and sexuality- I was discouraged from thinking about it too much- but the idea of sexual activity with another male went from appealing to buzzkill. I did have to catalogue my attraction to women and was supposed to do it by recording- something to do with a normal, male voice. There were other exercises aimed at perceiving myself as male, too. The key theory was something about disruptive relationships to masculinity and the need to establish heteronormativity; I don't think it would even have been without the intertwined ideas about gender roles and all that.
If you have more specific questions you're welcome to ask but I might not answer.
self_made_human
Sajjano durjano bhūyāt, durjano badhyatāṃ sadā, baddho'nyān nibandhāyet
20hr ago
· Edited 19hr ago
I Got Into Inkhaven (And Now I'm Panicking)
I received a frightening email, and in my line of work, you kinda expect them. But this one was different: Inkhaven accepted my application.
If you haven't heard of it, Inkhaven is this writing residency thing run by Lightcone Infrastructure. Yes, that's the LessWrong people, except now they're doing physical world stuff instead of just posting online. Scott mentioned it on his blog, which is how I found out about it. He's going to be mentoring there, which honestly might be the main reason I applied. Other names of note include Scott Aaronson, and Gwern.
The premise is beautifully simple and terrifying: show up, get housing at cost, write one blog post per day. Miss a day? You're out. It's like a writing bootcamp designed by someone who really, really wants you to develop a daily habit. Of course, in my particular case, it's like convincing someone popping oxy every day that they can save money by switching to fent. Do I look like I need additional incentive to write?
When I submitted my application, I figured my chances were decent. Self-described member of the rationalist community, popular posts on LW and /r/SSC, psychiatry resident who sneaks in references to Bayesian priors whenever he thinks he can get away with it. I included links to six pieces I'm proud of* and wrote the standard "here's who I am" introduction. But I had one major problem: I can't do the full month of November. My job gives me 14 days of leave every six months, and they don't let you combine them. Not exactly conducive to month-long writing retreats. Lightcone noted that those who couldn't make that commitment would be down weighted in favor those who could.
I applied anyway. What's the worst that could happen, right?
Apparently the worst that could happen is they say yes.
Now I'm staring at this acceptance email having what I can only describe as a controlled panic attack. Getting a US visa is going to be a nightmare. Try explaining to an immigration officer that you're visiting America to... write blog posts... at a place run by... internet rationalists? I'm imagining that conversation and it doesn't end well.
The timing is also spectacularly bad. I have a professional exam smack in the middle of November. A close friend is getting married in Texas in December, and I'm not sure I can swing both trips. My leave schedule is already stretched thinner than phyllo dough.
But here's the thing: this is exactly the kind of "good problem to have" that people talk about. I want to go. I want to meet Scott and all these people I've only known as usernames and Twitter handles. I want to see if I can actually write something decent every day for however long I can manage.
So if anyone has brilliant ideas about US visa applications, creative leave arrangements, or general life optimization, I'm all ears.
Plans so far:
-
Figure out how to stretch the leave. Fly out as soon as the exam is over, and then make strategic usage of weekends to eke out a longer stay. I'm aiming for 10 days plus weekends for Inkhaven, and 3 days plus hopefully another weekend for the wedding. I had really meant to use this as an opportunity to visit the many Mottizens who had invited me over to shoot guns (I think I need a spreadsheet for that alone), but I hope they can forgive me if the itinerary doesn't allow for it. Well, the first offers came in almost two years back, and I haven't heard anyone rescind them since. You guys seem like an understanding bunch.
-
Book visa appointments ASAP, and figure out how to phrase this in an ICE-friendly manner.
*If memory serves, one of them was a moderation comment I'd written on The Motte. Don't say I don't look out for us whenever I can!
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
20hr ago
That makes sense. I just wanted a bit of clarification about what the liability situation is. The law can get counterintuitive at times.
RoyGBivensAction
Zensunni Scientologist
20hr ago
I would be shocked if the guy sending the rectum photo had anywhere near the stretch of goatse.
urquan
Hold! What you are doing to us is wrong! Why do you do this thing?
20hr ago
I think trans women would avoid a lot of heartache if they stop being obsessed with dating 110% straight masculine guys and went for the guys that are fine meeting them for a coffee date in broad daylight instead.
Well, the complaint I've heard is that even this doesn't protect you. You might go on a nice set of public dates, but still get played by someone who's using you as an exploratory vessel for bicuriosity and isn't actually interested in a full-on relationship -- or even sex, when things get down to it. "This has been fun, but I've decided this isn't for me/I'm still exploring my sexuality" is a common type of breakup or rejection I've heard complaints about; one acquantance insisted on showing me a screenshot of the breakup text and then, sighing, said "I hate bi men."
That said, most trans women I've known or seen with a partner in public were, or wanted to be, in a relationship with another transgender person. I have no data, so maybe the reality is more complicated.
ThenElection
21hr ago
Can even get a nice bidding war going between the UK/US and China. Basically free money.
Grant_us_eyes
21hr ago
Yes, Escorts provide GFE-stuff. Of varying types, of varying lengths. I've checked. The point I was trying to make is, such an activity as I described it involves a deep degree of investment on both sides of the fence and a level of intimacy that just doesn't boil down to 'these two fuck every so often'. It speaks of two people actively trying to keep together a household and the long time-horizon that implies.
Can't really get that from an Escort, or an OnlyFans.
urquan
Hold! What you are doing to us is wrong! Why do you do this thing?
21hr ago
Say in 1995, Ann's cousin might have set her up with his cute pre-vetted army buddy Jim, or Cathy might have invited her friend Dave to a board game night with one of the single girls from her softball league. Well, cousins, army buddies, softball leagues, personally compatible humans still exist, so what's happening to interfere with those connections now?
Social media and the internet make entertaining yourself without interacting with other people trivial.
And informal clubs, softball leagues, board game nights, trivia nights, social organizations, religious services, all that kind of stuff have been in secular decline for decades in the US. Bowling Alone was written long before the advent of the smartphone.
And people have fewer friends, which means fewer connections, fewer friends-of-friends, and fewer Jims or Cathys to set up:
The decline in the number of close friendships is notable. In the past three decades, statistics reveal a drop in adults who report having ten or more close friends, from 33% in 1990 to just 13% today. More than half of Americans (49%) report having three or fewer close friends, showcasing a demographic shift in friendship dynamics.
Even the government has taken notice. They’re calling it an epidemic!
And many people don’t even feel this very strongly, despite feeling loneliness — parasocial relationships, internet videos, gaming, TikTok, weird Internet forums based on discussing culture war dynamics, all of these things can supply enough entertainment to make many people feel satiated enough to be complacent, with maybe one or two close friends you might see rarely. I can’t deny I’m a part of this, I last met up with friends a couple months ago and have spent most of my time with my family or my girlfriend.
But one thing that the internet can’t successfully fulfill is the unique pleasure of an intimate partner. Friends don’t cuddle you to sleep at night, or make love to you, or kiss you under the stars. Internet porn and fan fiction can maybe satisfy people a bit, but it’s not good enough.
I think this pull gets at guys more than ladies, it’s just my impression from having male and female friends that my single male friends have felt particularly lonely while my single female friends have been content to pursue their careers, or school, or hobbies, while letting romance come when it will.
The stats bear this out. Pew Research states:
Among men, those younger than 30 are by far the most likely to be single: About half of men in this age group (51%) are single, compared with only 27% of those ages 30 to 49 and 50 to 64 and 21% of men 65 and older. Women, by contrast, are by far most likely to be single later in life – roughly half of women ages 65 and older are unpartnered (49%), while those ages 30 to 49 are the least likely to be single (19%). Roughly three-in-ten women ages 18 to 29 (32%) and 50 to 64 (29%) are single.
Keep in mind, of course, that senior women are likely to be widows if they’re single, because men have a shorter life expectancy. But among non-elder people, young men have it rough. The stats are so skewed, though, you do have to wonder if this is where the “are we dating the same guy?” TikToks come from, and if some of those “single” men have a woman in their life who would be quite alarmed to hear that. But I believe that can’t fully explain what’s going on.
So young men are single more often than young women, people have fewer friends and less desire for friends, and intimacy is the big draw to get people to go out and meet other folks.
So, what happens when people hang out at those social organizations you were talking about?
The women who show up, and are single, get SWAMPED. Most people are meeting online nowadays, which has shifted the culture to one where in-person dating often feels quaint or unwanted. And even if these young women would like to make a connection at these events, well, there’s going to be more men than them and that’s overwhelming. That means that they will often find those environments frustrating — they’d like to meet in person, but also be able to enjoy whatever the actual purpose of the social gathering is without having to fend off 4 guys who all want her number. Hence, “GUYS ONLY WANT ONE THING…”
I confess I was that guy — you know, in an organization or club in college, asking out women occasionally if I liked them. I had little success. The one time it worked, well, it’s because she asked me out. And apparently I struck her as attractive when I met her; “I saw you and I knew I had to have you in my life” is her recollection.
So I guess I have a dual narrative: I’ve struggled with loneliness at times, I’ve been single more than I’d like, I have friends who are good, decent people who’ve struggled more than me, but I’ve gotten lucky a few times and sometimes women have seen things in me I didn’t always see in myself. I’m so grateful to my girlfriend — she was very brave, decisive, and persistent, and has always treated me with love and kindness. But I know not everyone has been lucky enough to catch someone’s attention the way I’ve done a few times.
So there are absolutely people who meet in “the old way.” I did. But it’s less common. And the sort of broad social connections that make the kind of matchmaking you’re describing possible have decayed.
Men commit the overwhelming majority of murders and violence crime.
Gonna go off on a tangent here that's unrelated to what you were trying to say, but I'm just going to point out that this is largely down to their risk taking and greater aggressiveness within the public sphere, which also means that they are responsible for the overwhelming majority of acts of heroism (men are 90% of those who have received the Carnegie Hero Medal, for example). Of course, the negative aspects of these traits always get discussed so much more than the positive ones, and by virtually every political group in existence. Wonder why. Then there's also the reality of violence-by-proxy by women, which is yet another thing that fuels male-perpetrated violence. I wrote a longer comment about all of that here.
And what is the real reward for sexual liberalization? I mean this genuinely as a question, not a rhetorical device.
I wasn't so much advocating sexual liberalisation or disparaging sexual traditionalism as much as I was simply pointing out that if we're accepting a sexual framework, we need to fully accept all of its consequences. Sexual traditionalism doesn't just mean "shotgun weddings for men" and "penalties for cads for having deflowered a woman": it also means stigmatising and penalising women who have premarital sex or tart themselves up inappropriately or use sex/intimacy to wheedle money out of men, granting the men around them the power to vet and police who they can go out with (since they will have to defend any breach of their honour), and placing responsibilities on both husband and wife in a marriage to put out and provide sex to their spouse. The responsibility for maintaining a pro-social scenario was not placed only on one party.
Note I don't consider this to be the Handmaid's Tale either. I very much agree with you that that's basically feminist oppression porn and an unhinged caricature of traditional sexual mores which borders on the fantastical. I think all of these traditional strictures are just a consequence of accepting that entire framework of looking at things, and I don't like how we've basically adopted a chimera of sexual liberalism and traditionalism, having accepted only the parts of both worldviews that benefit women while discarding all the bits that may inconvenience them. Within this current context, I won't accept any more sexual strictures being placed on men; the system is already engineered to give women maximal choice while displacing maximal accountability onto men. If we're advocating a traditional society, the obligations of women that made it make sense need to be enforced. We need to pick a lane and stick with it, instead of relying on women's tears to help us shape our approach to everything regardless of how conflicted and schizophrenic things get.
SSCReader
22hr ago
In the cupboard as opposed to out on the counter. Popularized by Derry Girls where a Catholic girls school and a Protestant Boys school are attempting to find commonalities.
self_made_human
Sajjano durjano bhūyāt, durjano badhyatāṃ sadā, baddho'nyān nibandhāyet
22hr ago
From morbid curiosity, I browse /r/redscarepodcast on a regular basis. Very interesting specimens on that sub.
That means I know as much about Cumtown as a well-adjusted person can through sheer cultural osmosis. I don't really do podcasts in general.
TwiceHuman
22hr ago
I think the only challenge with building a community around this is that you have too much nuance to fit into simple boxes, and people basically always put others into simple boxes. You're just assigned to whatever cluster you seem to be the closest to, even if your internal processes are entirely different.
A better solution would be for people to treat other people as more complex beings in general, rather than just slapping labels on them based on limited information.
That said, I do believe that all the important bits aren't in the facts but in how they're interpreted. In this case:
that they are something forever and always
This is just the tendency for people to model others, and a sort of laziness which makes them not want to update their beliefs about others. Perhaps they even get uncomfortable when people are more fluid than fixed, simply because we don't like changing out minds. You might be gay, you might not be gay, only you really know. Your experiences could be sexuality, they could also be fetishism, and they could be something else entirely. Theory has to fit reality, but reality has no need to conform to theory. There's zero needs to label yourself in any way, or even to be consistent. What I think you dislike is the fact that other people will judge you and put you in boxes which you do not fit into.
Edit: I relied as if your comment was a top-level post. I don't know if this makes any meaningful difference or not
HeimrArnadalr
English Supremacist
22hr ago
Without checking where someone keeps their toaster
Where do protestants keep their toasters?
Terracotta
22hr ago
So effectively you're using ChatGPT as... an ad blocker for spammy sites?
That's a pretty interesting development in the eternal war of consumer versus enshittification. It'll become still more so when all the wiki content is itself LLM-authored and the LLMs pivot to putting secret ad space in their system prompts, like Google's sponsored results.
quiet_NaN
22hr ago
Travelling to Switzerland to get MAID will impose much lower externalities on society than most other suicide methods.
Leaving aside obviously bad suicide methods like trains, you will in any case place your corpse in the way of people who did not sign up for this. EMTs. Loved ones. Police who break your front door after the neighbors complain about the smell. Random members of the public.
I have it on good authority that there are also other Swiss jobs than suicide assistant. They know what they signed up for, you pay them for handling your corpse and all the paperwork.
Terracotta
22hr ago
It still leaves unanswered questions, though, because however cursed bars and the internet may be, it's not like they actively interfere with developing relationships by more normal means (do they?).
Nobody needs another rape-culture/ perving-at-work debate, so let's set aside the decline in school and workplace relationships, but that chart also shows an approximately 35% drop in the proportion of people who met through friends and a 50% drop in the proportion who met through family. Say in 1995, Ann's cousin might have set her up with his cute pre-vetted army buddy Jim, or Cathy might have invited her friend Dave to a board game night with one of the single girls from her softball league. Well, cousins, army buddies, softball leagues, personally compatible humans still exist, so what's happening to interfere with those connections now? Do Ann and the army buddy still meet, but now he thinks she's too fat or she thinks he's too short compared with the hotties they shop online? Do Dave and the softball friend still do board games, but now they're under-socialized and both kind of self-absorbed, so neither of them makes a move while still feeling offended at the other sex's lack of interest? Or what?
TwiceHuman
22hr ago
I agree with this first claim, but I imagine that the "suicidal and paralyzed from the neck down" crowd is pretty small. My arguments so far have not accounted for that one situation, but I think a good rule is "Follow their instructions, even if they request something which will kill them". You cannot really implement this legally, so this should be one of those things which are technically illegal but which everyone pretends that they don't see when they happen.
There is an assumption that they also have the right to hire others to secure their rights.
This is basically the right to give away some of your agency, which could lead to consequences which harm your rights. Tricky situation, but I don't think it's bad from this direction. Having the right to ask somebody to end your life isn't the issue - the issue is that, if we make institutions which can legally end your life, then your environment could systemically pressure you to make this decision.
To give an example, you're not forced to marry anyone. Being able to marry is a freedom you have. But there may be economic benefits to marriage, and this is where the problem starts. Do you know why I'm not an organ donor? It's because it seem that some doctors don't really do their best to save you if you're an organ donor and they're short on whatever organs you have. I haven't looked into it much, but it's not hard to imagine how this incentive might come into being.
There is little society can do to deter them
This is how it should be. For instance, I could grab a hammer right now, run out of my apartment, and start bashing random people with it. I won't make this choice, but you cannot deprive me of the ability to make it without depriving me of my fundamental human freedom (the ability to use tools, the ability to open my front door, the ability to move my body, and the ability to interact with other people). My neighbour has the same freedom. This is exactly how it should be, every alternative is worse.
I'm alright with temporarily putting suicidal people under watch, since they might be acting on impulse. But if they continue being suicidal for longer periods of time, it becomes apparent that it's their genuine will.
I would prefer legalized but regulated suicides
Here's what will happen: Millions of old people will be considered a drain on society and made to kill themselves. There's a million paths leading to this, and number 13215 is "Accidentally give older people medicine which has the side-effect of increased risk of suicide". An AI will A/B test medicine, and then look at the results. Would you look at that, medicine X leads to greener numbers: Lower costs, and less complaints about pains. The reason you don't see: The lower costs are due to less old people remaining alive, and the lowered complaints are because those who suffered the most have died. Another possibility is that they're given medicine which is stronger but accelerates their death, this also leads to less pain, and thus less complains, and it also makes other numbers on the spreadsheet look green in that more deaths mean lower costs. Did you know that "we don't know" how most modern algorithms actually work? It's just a blackbox with an input and output. Well, that's why we won't see that we're just killing old people faster, all our metrics will show "improvements".
In a sense, yes. But also as a quick aggregator and guided tour for low stakes info absorption. Whether that's recreational or professional:
Recreational example: Is mewtwo the most powerful pokemon?
What I am seeking: an answer to this question, and some quick context history, light reading.
How much I care: not much, passing interest as my kids have an episode on
What's wrong with a google search?: I can't necessarily find the answer on a wiki, and if I have a specific follow-on, I can't expect to just scroll down and find it. I have to wade through stuff I don't care about. I could search for a reddit thread, but will more likely have to scroll through unnecessary nerd-debates, not authoritative or exactly what I'm asking.
Work example: I'm emailing to a customer and need to react to an unfamiliar competitor
What I am seeking: high level point of view that I can build talking points around
How much I care: It's important to be directionally right, but I don't need ot be an expert
What's wrong with a google search?: The competitor website takes exploring and is not oriented toward me learning the relevant competitive highlights that I need in the context this question has come to me in.
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