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joined 2022 November 15 08:31:46 UTC

				

User ID: 1865

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0 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2022 November 15 08:31:46 UTC

					

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User ID: 1865

You're an Australian, correct?

Trump is the current favorite to win the next election @ $2.40 (Roughly 41.6%). You can bet 1000's of AUD currently on this not to happen at 58.4% (with a minor commission, taking you to about 56% implied) on the Betfair exchange. Tax-free winnings as an Australian hobbyist, too. As you think Trump is 85% to get jailed here, surely that makes your number of him winning the election a lot lower than 41.6%. Can even bet against him to win the Republican nomination at 81.3% with similar liquidity. No counterparty risk there.

I feel like the relentless optimization of sports has also contributed to this. Everybody's got media training out the ass, the majority of games have congealed around one or two correct ways to play a given position and exposure to Instagram etc. means that whilst the stars are more accessible than they've ever been there's just not that much of a cult of personality around them.

Or maybe I'm getting old.

I never heard of the Madagascar plan before but as an alt history that would be one of the more interesting things if it happened especially for the HBD crowd if 6 million Jews went there.

There were a few equivalent ones. Northern Australia was also mooted, and I'd love to see a counterfactual in which the Australian Indigenous had to fare with that particular settlement.

Poker's a tricky one. I agree the best player as in 'the most skilled person at Poker' is an online bot kind of a thing, but the stars of yesteryear still eke out a living even with fairly mid skills by modern pro standards by mastering the greatest skill of all, which is Table Selection.

Far easier to be a medium fish who's good at finding small ponds than to be the biggest shark there ever was.

There was sort of this weird rhetorical loop between 'The Voice is a symbolic powerless body with no legal force' and 'The Voice will action real meaningful change due to its power' in which the former is probably more accurate but it never got firmly nailed down.

Why don't we teach young women 'please never send mixed signals to men about your sexual interest as ambiguous coquettishness muddies the water around consent'? Why is it 'No means no and if you don't have a yes, it's a no' in the face of all observed human mating practices? All the responsibility for miscommunication around consent is placed onto the shoulders of men by the groups advocating 'education'.

A lot of female sexuality operates around plausible deniability and genuinely being a lot more 100-0 with potential romantic partners than the male mind can really conceive. I've got a lot of female friends, and the amount of times a prospective paramour has gone from 'I think he's my soulmate' to 'it icks me to even be somewhat near them, they are physically and spiritually repulsive' off a single tiny moment/misplay is way too high. Being a proactive communicator of sexual intent doesn't work when you're wired like that, as the light switch can flip at any moment

The thing that strikes me with the decolonization rhetoric is that so many people espousing it don't seem to recognize the position of intense historical privilege they live in. Yes, there's issues with 2023 society, but the vast majority of people with access to Twitter live in comfort unimaginable even 60 years ago.

The entire 'Indigenous Voice referendum' in Australia discussion has been providing so many examples of this, in which there's a ton of focus on 'English colonization bad' coupled with an unspoken assumption that the Indigenous would otherwise have been left completely unmolested by anybody else and somehow emerged as a Western Multicultural democracy via process of Wakandization by now. It makes a coherent argument difficult.

Staking is a pretty frequent phenomenon where people will essentially commit a bankroll to a great player in exchange for a cut of winnings, though even that circles back to 'the hourly is pretty terrible' since even if you're winning 2k an hour, if you've committed 90% of your profits to the person who's staked you you end up in the same hole.

Yeah. My interpretation was that he was diving/trying for some moderate rough play and landed the proverbial critical hit.

I don't think there was any intent of it ending as it did, but he also clearly made an abnormal movement for the sport

I'm fairly sure black women generally score the lowest for interracial appeal in dating app data, which might be part of it.

Then again there's generally strong correlations between being a black woman and a bunch of things the dating market isn't a fan of such as Obesity, dependents etc. which might mean that the antipathy towards Black Women is overstated on account of the correlated factors.

Like I found in my personal dating I tended to end up pursuing more Asian girls than anything else, but that was more due to a preference for 'My partner ideally has graduated university, isn't overweight, hasn't got somebody else's kids etcetera' than necessary a strong preference in isolation.

Yeah. Failure case in most Western democracies right now is not that earthshatteringly bad. It's definitely tight, but it's not like he'd be forced to go homeless 48 hours after declaring bankruptcy. Especially when he's got the contact network he ostensibly seems to have had, surely there'd be a 6-figure sinecure of some sort available somewhere as a consultant or middle manager that'd allow him to be atleast medium competitive.

I've heard the theory that due to it generally being more comfortable to be 'out' as a homosexual in more educated/affluent surrounds and in more successful demographics that there's an associated upward skew on homosexual average income, education and the rest.

If 90% of affluent gays feel comfortable coming out, whilst only 20% of lower-class gays feel comfortable, that can explain a ton of overperformance.

it doesn't offer you solutions to your problems

'Get jacked, get confident, get bitches' is more of a solution than anything being offered from the other side of the fence, though.

Is it One Size Fits All? No!

But atleast it's a suggestion compared to either 'Be Yourself' in a dating scene that is beyond warped or 'Long screed about how bad and evil men from before your time acted poorly etc etc etc'

Is this really a dunk? Both photos still substantially more attractive than the other woman, even if she's less presented in the one you've just linked.

I honestly feel a lot of the COVID hawks just assume the vaccine was a lot more effective than it actually is, and thus happily just kind of said 'Oh, vaccine's available, back to normal life' whilst simultaneously overrating the impact of COVID & the vaccine by a major factor.

Also I've got friends who are still habitual maskers, but the majority were germophobes & borderline OCD-types even before the pandemic who've now got license to indulge their pre-existing instincts and interests.

Also the amount of truly great Poker Players who died broke and/or are in large amounts of debt due to their general degeneracy is a pretty large number. Tom Dwan one of the best to ever do it, but in huge debt etcetera.

From a lot of random errant 'Me as a single late-twenty something talking to married forty-something coworkers' conversations, I feel like the longterm married/coupled POV can be dissatisfied with their sex lives on account of rather misunderstanding the current moment in singledom.

I've had way too many chats with schlubby 45 year old middle-managers who seem to be convinced that Tinder is a cornucopia of casual sex for everyman and/or that they'd be able to be a 'chad'. Admittedly I've also seen the same play out more than a few times with younger longterm committed friends who've tried opening relationships and/or breaking up with their SOs to sample the market and found themselves deep in the shit.

Fairly big difference between 'maybe relax the restrictions on building new dwellings a bit' and 'to reduce the housing shortage, we're moving three more people in with every domicile since 'cause'. I'd say your vibe is more against the latter.

Yeah. I've always found the movie Lagaan insane where they're holding up the existing monarchial despot as being oppressed by having a layer of British taxation on top of his feudalism. Like I understand in the movie the British are enforcing a brutal tax, but it's not like India having droughts and feudal taxation being harsh are some unique invention of the Anglo.

Filipinos are the second highest income group? That seems off.

I mean you can, but it tends to unravel pretty quickly if you ever get behind the 8-ball

I suppose there's an argument for that, but I just feel like 'life utility points' aren't super tied to money in the West right now beyond a certain minimum spec. You don't want to be broke-broke, I agree, but the qualitative difference between making $100k and making $300k is pretty low as somebody who's bounced around the spectrum. My net worth/earnings took a big hit a few years ago in '2021 fantasy bull market dollars' terms which probably is gonna take me another couple years to get back to, but my day-to-day existence is essentially the same. Admittedly I'm probably more frugal than a lot of guys like that, but having experienced a lot of 'rich person stuff' it's the difference between a 7.5/10 day and a 8/10 day.

I think it's trickier than that, though. I've got this fairly strong memory of a multiple choice verbal question along the lines of

'How does Alcohol impact driving skills

A) Strongly negatively B) Negatively C) Significantly Negatively D) Positively '

Where I'm sure they wanted the exact wording of the pamphlet in hindsight, but it's also somewhat absurd to mark any of A-C as incorrect.

Honestly surprised me that somebody with his interests actually did something in the real world, especially something so grandiosely self-destructive. Big From Software game enthusiast.

Are the people running factory machines inside of Ford and GM (or starbucks, or a hollywood writers room) really that highly skilled?

Switching costs are high, unions will generally make attempts to increase the difficulty of procuring 'scab'/temporary replacement labor and historically there was less ability to just move a factory international or procure international workers.

Do agree that the Writers' strike seems pretty fangless when it's not only a job with a fairly arbitrary marker of skill/ability to function, but it's also one that's an actual desired, targeted role for a lot of people without a real credentialist barrier to entry. Writer compensation should, logistically, have a pretty severe pareto principle.