BANNED USER: terrible poster who never improves
sliders1234
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User ID: 685
Banned by: @Amadan
sliders1234
1yr ago
Sure but then obviously you would need an India style class system where some people by birth would be restricted in their career options. This is contra to all of American history.
sliders1234
1yr ago
IMO I mostly think the elites have done a good job for US workers. They work fewer hours than their parents and their homes have 10x the stuff.
In my opinion the actual erosion isn’t with economics it’s all the social policy that is hurting them the most. The working class was a lot better when they had more religiousity governing their behavior and not the elites culture of today. The tran stuff just confuses them. For every 1 in a couple thousand kids with actual biological transexualism there are hundred if not more working class kids confused who just work better with simpler sexual culture and traditions. Most would be better if the rule was just have sex with the person whose about your intelligence and attractiveness within a 10 min.walk and marry them for 70 years.
sliders1234
1yr ago
The puppet master thesis is the “just the right time, place, and manner” is a US election. And this was all about winning an election than any real concern about black people. If Floyd had everything else happen to him and it was 2018 or 2021 he would just be another dead black man.
You don’t need to be a politician at 22 to be a politician at 60. They can go on the safer career paths (honestly prefer politicians with outside politics experience).
Truth is in a meritocracy especially with intelligence being highly hereditary you would expect the longer that meritocracy exists that elites would largely come from some form of elites (in Americas case it’s going to be dominated by the PMC or top 20%). The only way you get elites from the lower class with intelligence being hereditary is when you have another blocking force like in immigrant communities that are working class initially before those immigrant communities sort themselves on intelligence. And the occasional smart kids whose family was poor because of alcoholism (my dad died of liver cancer so I sort of fit this).
sliders1234
1yr ago
If coal miners became politicians today it would mean our entire meritocracy and educational system has failed.
I think it’s reasonable to say the leaders of our complex society should be IQ 130 and probably around a 1500 SAT score. The entire filter for our system would be failing if that kid isn’t getting selected into a top 25 university today.
It’s also been said of unions that the leaders no longer come from the workers but from outside of it. Back in the day poor immigrant kids who were smart might not have been caught up into our systems filters for leadership and would have taken the mill job. Their intelligence would have led them to leadership. But now they are filtered out earlier.
It just feels like going backwards and a thing for poor countries to not identify their most talented individuals early. Do we want 1500 SAT kids working at Wal-Mart for 20 years so they can be good working class people?
sliders1234
1yr ago
Doesn’t Ron Desantis disprove your rule that non-elites can’t achieve high office or even Joe Biden?
Desantis has like 400k networth now. Yes he has has the elite degrees. This just says the filter for entering the elites may be earlier. He no doubt got great SAT scores early then got into elite schools. Paid for it looks like from ROTC money.
The thing with the filter being earlier it could mean one of two things.
- It’s just earlier and you need to be taking the steps for that path early.
- The filter isn’t high school academic achievements, but the people with ambition to be an elite already have that ambition young so they get themselves on that track early.
Joe Biden doesn’t seem to have money or elite academics early.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Agents always seem to have weird incentives. Reputation of course matters more than anything for more business.
The converse to a % would be an hourly wage for giving advice and finishing processes (like a Lawyer) but that system would encourage buyers agents to not close deals and instead have deals fail but keep the billable hours up.
Reputation to get more clients is the only thing that works to align client/agent incentives since every incentive system I see for agents in one-off deals would have misaligned incentives.
If I had to steelman buyers agents it’s probably something like they need to exists and most buyers have a need for the specific service to varying extents. The exact compensation structure is hard to perfectly align incentives.
Even if I am buying the simplest of real estate purchases say a condo in a 300 unit property and looking at a few similar sized buildings it would still take me hundreds of hours to figure out costs/benefit trade offs while a buyers agent who specializes in large condo buildings in a neighborhood should have built up a strong feel for relative value in those buildings. Maybe it takes 200 hours to gain pricing knowledge of condos in a neighborhood but if they have 20 clients/year for multiple years they spread that fundamental research time down to sub <10 hrs per client.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Agree I guess it’s similar to a market economy where you have coordination but no one understands but a small piece of how things happen.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I don’t want to touch a lot of these because they are political narratives. Personally, I think for example Trump did the best job of anyone and you highlight two of them Operation Warpspeed and the PPP loans/economic program. The first was the most important thing for saving lives and the second was a primary reason America bounced back so quickly.
On the puppet master thing it’s because they feel coordinated. America has black criminals dying from law enforcement all the time for doing black criminal stuff. In Floyd’s case it’s using counterfeit money to by fentanyl of which put himself 80-90% of the way to his death. It makes no sense to me he wasn’t just labeled an OD. Black guy dies of fentanyl OD normally wouldn’t even make a local newspaper. Instead we had spontaneous riots in every major city and a lot of small towns. It only happens in an election year. And the timing of the riots just feels like someone is organizing. It’s like a war day Ukraine where there are battles at 20 different areas of the front where it’s obvious someone made a decision to time them together.
The same thing with the legal cases for Trump it feels like someone tried to stack them for constant news coverage and with many timed to land with key events during the peak of the election. If he had one case coinciding with the election it would seem like one person doing their things but when you have multiple it feels like someone is giving Lieutenant's battle plans.
In your case you identified Karl Rove as doing politics. In this case there is no one.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Yes I think the missing crisis is that the powers that be in the left blew their load on trials. It still seems like it’s a big deal that the primary opposition Presidential candidate nearly had his property seized by the state and has criminal charges all over the place. It just doesn’t seem like it’s having the desired effect.
The thing I don’t get is it feels like someone is pulling the strings for summer of Floyd, launching dozens of cases against Trump, etc and designing these election strategies but I do not know who is the puppet master.
Fwiw Democrat political strategies seem to be failures. 2020 is likely a landslide in my opinion without summer of Floyd; it would have been 2008 with Trump taking the L for COVID happening in his watch just like 2008 was a blowout with the GOP losing because of the financial crisis. Court cases also seem to have boosted Trump. The only good thing I can say from the court cases is it seemed to elevate Trump before Desantis could get in a fight.
sliders1234
1yr ago
One of them was small business owner in his ‘70s he told his buyers agent he would pay him $10k. So he was technically still represented but he bought a penthouse that had sat on the market between 3 and 4 for low 2’s so a full commission was much more. So he’s still letting the seller get an extra 60-70k. I don’t think most deals need a full 2.5-3%. First time home buyers need some more help and special situations can justify more.
sliders1234
1yr ago
$5k? I thought those were in the $1k range for appraisals. Unless we are talking something in the mid-7 figures.
I like the comment of a buyers agent telling the customer they were free. I’ve had that happen though for a rental.
Buyers agents especially value can be all over the map. I bought raw space one time and going thru that process needed more help. Buying a standard 2 bed condo you should not need as much help. There is fat in the system if the two agents are being paid the same.
IMO do think this subject is top-level worthy as it opens the door to all kinds of new business models and the economic logic behind them. I know people looking at offering cheap buyers agents but trying to internalize all the other fees. Mortgage brokers also have a 1-3% commission so one avenue is those guys get their real estate license and provide low touch services.
Personally I feel like I would prefer it became more like an accountant and numbers focused versus a good-looking sales people job.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I have been waiting for a post on the NAR settlement and it has never come. The NAR was forced to pay out a large settlement due to lawsuits and change how buyers agents are compensated.
The standard way homes are bought and sold in a market is at a 5 or 6% commission which is then split 50-50 between the buyers and sellers agents. I believe the big change now is on the mls websites buyers commissions were expected to be listed. You are no longer required to lists and discriminate buyers concessions and some technical details I am not 100% certain on. But barriers to trade and non-standard arrangements will be easier.
I have had friends buy properties before un represented but it is frowned upon. In those cases they would make their offer and basically say I have no agent so reduce your price 3% and rework your sellers contract so your sellers agent gets 3% like he would if I had an agent. The old system made this harder since most people just like to follow the way. Which I believe led a lot of people to just hirer a buyers agent probably a friend and let them get paid.
Culture war isn’t our general culture war but you can find plenty on twitter saying things like “turn out everyone hated us” realistically though we just didn’t like real estate transactions costing us 6% (plus more in many areas with transfer taxes).
There are a lot of interesting economics to discuss on this issue. Another area is a lot of realtors don’t transact all that much. A couple deals a year. My guess is this deal makes it much harder for the casual real estate agent if commissions fall. You won’t be able to buy/sell for your friends network. Another issue with being oversupplied with realtors is many spend more time finding clients than working with clients. Trades in general with commodity products but high margins for various reasons would tend to a model of a high amount of resources being spent on client acquisition.
Another area if the new world in real estate occurs is the housing market would change significantly if commission fall meaningfully. Lower transaction costs means people can move more frequently. If your home costs $1 million and $60k commissions are happening then you are paying that $60k somehow even if it’s indirectly. It would also seem to help flips significantly. If real estate transaction were saying $0 then I would think nearly every property would be a flip as some people would have true expertise in rehabbing/remodeling. Our current 6-10% transaction costs makes it very expensive for a 6 month guy to do it. They can only step in for properties heavily degraded where no true owner (with no expertise) would be interested. This is one reason I thought the various ibuyer companies would fail because adding more fees makes it uneconomical.
sliders1234
1yr ago
It probably is. The difference here is it would be people deciding to do it to themselves. It’s the Gattaca endgame
sliders1234
1yr ago
I thought you were going to advocate for UBI instead of school spending so that poor people get a better life instead of highly funded education etc that does nothing for them.
I find your talk about genetic engineering for intelligence to be basically a form of genocide. Genetic engineering like this wouldn’t be much different than sterilizing them and giving them a smarter baby. Their child I assume would still look like them but their child’s mind would be completely different than themselves. Granted survival of the fittest is basically natures way of genociding the less fit.
In a lot of ways I feel like being mentally different from ones children would far less be like them than if they were physically different. If you changed my child’s dna so they were physically Lebron James but everything that goes into the mind was me then I think I would connect with them more than if they looked like me but were mentally different. They would have some different experiences. Like I had 2 years where I was bullied heavily and I am going to guess that wouldn’t happen to them. Or getting cut from the basketball team.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I think you are overthinking it. A lot of it just feels like cars versus no cars to me. When I am in a city anything 10 min away is a walk but everything suburban is a drive.
I also think the food industry has optimized for taste and gotten really good at it and these things are readily available everywhere and an easy pleasure in rural areas.
I don’t think Wall-Street hirers those guys anymore. Maybe a Bill Gross or Gundlach but to be honest those guys spend probably more time think about small market structure edge to squeeze an extra 20 bps versus absolutely hammering the economic outlook right and getting 10 year up or down right.
The big macro funds are going to be thinking about a lot of other things too than getting the macro call right. The guys in those shops getting the economy right just isn’t that important when your levered and have risks limits on everything. Pays much better just figuring out a sentiment shift or a trigger for a price (like at etf entrance or some quant allocation that will happen).
Any macro interview is going to start with returns and Sharpe ratio stuff not whether your calls are right. Getting calls right is just too volatile.
One example I would use is when oil when -50 (and an extreme example) it only traded negative for like 90 minutes and the entire next day was positive entire day. Even if you knew the price next day and traded that you wouldn’t make money because is in between for those 90 minutes a nice security guard came to your desks and escorted you out. What happened is some Chinese banks were long some derivatives linked to that days oil close and blasted it negative (probably illegally) causing billions of losses on those banks. But if you had mapped out all the fundamentals and macro and absolutely nailed the value of a barrel of oil you would in fact not be rich.
The only place I think kind of sometimes takes a big macro swing (usually on bearish side) is Bridgewater but they overall haven’t had great performance but somehow are a marketing powerhouse.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Why does this remind me of a completely other unrelated bill during 9/11 that allows for student loan forgiveness basically referring to 9/11 related stuff but 20+ years later was used for student loan forgiveness on things not like 9/11.
I don’t even want to blame congress for this because I think writing laws is hard when you want them to do one thing specifically but have some flexibility so congress doesn’t need to write a new law every time $5k is spent.
Thing is I wasn’t that surprised they went down the Nazi path. Slightly surprised they ended up doing “he’s doing another 1/6 but this time we won’t know when in scare quotes”. In some ways he hasn’t been defamed and it says more about the writers because I already sort of assume they thing their is no difference between a masculine white male former marine and literally Hitler foot soldier planing 1/6 (which is more like 9/11 in their view). 1/6 is a bit of a larp from everybody both those who did it and those talking about it after.
I wander if after 9/11 in 2002 if every brown person literally had OBL on speed dial. Or if the other back then was represented less cartoonishly.
The hard thing which you are describing for a defamation case is how do you draw a legal definition for “substantially the same”. This episode fulfills that for me but I have no idea how you define. It’s a bit like the old definition of porn “I know it when I see it”.
sliders1234
1yr ago
They may have done crazier.
I did pick $500k because that is about the amount I would be fine with if I let CNN agree to call me a Nazi for a day. Not a runaway jury verdict and keeps the genre viable.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I’m upset not because I don’t view him as a criminal. But because I identify with him as literally me. If they made a fictional account of me a bland white male that I too would be depicted as a Nazi. I won’t deny what caught my eye. Atleast for me I actually do believe in HBD and sort of liked 1/6 and my online writings could show that so I guess it would be more exaggeration and a small basis in truth.
sliders1234
1yr ago
In addition to what was already said.
Elon Musks losts $50 billion to Delaware Chauncery ruling from a judge appointed by a Democrat. And he’s the worst behaving censor in charge of a social media company. And of course Donald Trump got $500 million in charged from a NYC court.
These are indirect and perhaps non-traceable but there are examples of punishment for not staying in the good graces of the political power.
This is somewhat like the “where is the fraud” in the 2020 election. And just citing the obvious expansion of mail-in voting.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Obvious counter he’s not a politician or celebrity.
I would assume they have lawyers and wouldn’t cross a line making them liable. But I think most people here would agree with my assumption the real Daniel Perry suffered reputational damage.
A NY jury this probably goes no where but a Texas jury a novel legal theory might work.
I got no disagreement that most deals can probably work on a bare bones style agent.
I was more steel-manning why they should exists versus why they should exists at a 3% commission.
A very small percentage of buyers agents likely do deserve 3%. There are unique projects that require far more expertise. If some platform rolled up buyers agents, paid them a salary, and charged 1% buyers fees I feel like that business model can work. To date that model has not work perhaps due to restrictions etc from the old ways.
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