BANNED USER: terrible poster who never improves
sliders1234
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User ID: 685
Banned by: @Amadan
sliders1234
1yr ago
Well legal or illegal is really just breaking the rules of the current ruling class. Elections decide who is the current ruling class. Elections get to decide who wields power.
From that perspective I do think elections are > some court case. If he wins tbe election he literally because innocent because he’s now the one who decides if something is legal or illegal. That’s Democracy.
That seems very Danerys Targaryen of wanting to rule over the ashes. It’s not saving “Trump” it’s maintaining some part of America and Democracy.
You don’t think jailing a likely Presidential winner during an election is a constitutional crisis and an attempt to disenfranchise a significant part of the electorate?
sliders1234
1yr ago
Who would stop them? Biden/Blinken/top members of the Democrats. Tell them to pause or shut things down.
Why?
The system would be ungovernable if Trump is in jail and we have him as the GOP candidate. If he loses say with 48% of the vote then GOP has cause to break the entire system. The entire system works because of voluntary compliance. If you end that then nothing works and prosecuting Trump gives you justification. Secession becomes quite justifiable if they remove half the countries ability to participate in Democracy. It would be 1860 again. Would be equally as bad if Trump wins from prison (highly likely). Or you could see Desantis refuse extradition which he would be justified in doing.
I’d think the adults in the room like Blinken get this. And it’s a stunt. Because the alternative can’t happen.
sliders1234
1yr ago
You think the Dems will go that far versus just being an election stunt? Regardless of whether he was guilty or not it looks like a huge issue for Democracy if they put him in jail before the election.
I still work on a model that they want bad press. Winning an election thru the criminal justice system seems wrong and a threat to half the country trusting the system. I’m not sure we can come back from that which makes me think the power brokers would back off from going quite that far.
After the election there’s no reason to prosecute Trump.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Good post I like this model. Seems to catch a lot of what I wanted to say.
sliders1234
1yr ago
He can most likely release himself. I believe it has to do with The Federal government having supremacy on these matters. It would be a constitutional issue and open up a can of worms to keep him in prison. If that occurred then any rogue state could just imprison political enemies (basically what is happening here).
A felon sometimes can’t vote but they can hold office.
The betting sites do not seem to be factoring in current polling/general vibes i get. I’d say if we had a snap election in 2 weeks Trump would win big.
I’ve been extremely confused by betting markets. Either they think something will break for the Dems to get a coin flip (which Trump is less than a coin flip) or it seems like they are pricing in wide spread fraud. But I 100% agree with you noting the betting markets I’ve checked them lately and they don’t feel like they moved nearly enough.
Mean reversion probably will happen but Trump feels like a 90-95% win probability if we held elections now.
I agree with this. But there is a reason I posted here instead of twitter. Public stuff you have to say the right words versus getting to talk about something.
I agree with most of your thoughts.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Your not going bankrupt on a move from 370 to 92 which happened in last 5 years if you have any leverage.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Well he said levered. You blew out levered that shit last year at any leverage level.
Oil negative was fake. Chinese banks were long oil to a derivative contract on spot that day. We fucked them over. It only actually traded negative for a a few hours.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Well I made the comment on purpose. Because Jews really do pop up everywhere despite their small numbers. I do it because they are an important people who contribute to civilization.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I agree. There’s never a perfect case to make a point for discussion. His I failed and now I have to do X doesn’t seem big enough for the point I’m trying to make.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I apologize. Friday is a drink and post day. And my grammar is below average as is. I edited it.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Think I’ve seen far higher than that. Like 150 advertised. But that’s still falling a lot in status.
188k is a lot of money. He was twitter cool.
He did get a place on real deal third article from I can see. I did post here because it was blowing up on certain twitters (small businesses and real estate) and because I thought there were things not discussed here before. https://therealdeal.com/
And I’ve had some dark days so I do think talking about taking risks and failing have a lot of benefits.
One of my points was a widow can get charity easier than a failing business man.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Simple answer is IQ arb. Look into search funds which have gotten popular with mba types.
A lot of small businesses have a moat in the sense that as you go down the IQ scale they are not managed well but provide useful services. But there are many that have a ton of cash flow but are sub scale for pe. So your not competing with your other Harvard mba for the next platform grad but some guy with a ged.
sliders1234
1yr ago
A lot of people think buying a small business versus market exposure is far less risky. You control the cash flows.
I saw some things missed that I was looking for people to comment on.
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We have had a lot of post lately on the economy is fine. But the averages aren’t everyone. Real Estate people I could see how they are struggling now. It’s not 2008 but I saw this tweet from experience then https://twitter.com/gas_biz/status/1720481605112725782?s=46&t=aQ6ajj220jubjU7-o3SuWQ
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I do think men have a provider mentality. If you want to have a family and it fails at 40 your dating market prospects suck. I’ve seen it where the women divorces after that. What are your options then - start building again and then maybe close to 50 you can import a wife to have a family with.
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Americas wealth is built on this stuff. Everything he probably killed himself for are the fears that motivate people to do stuff and create wealth in capitalism.
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Something something about having a ton of twitter followers but not really having your busines/life going well. I know others who have a ton of followers but aren’t making money on what they say they are doing and I’m not talking those targeting lower income.
sliders1234
1yr ago
This was the point I was waiting for. Yes your family often leaves you when you fail. Seen it happen enough.
Sure for a functional adult you can go manage a Taco Bell and probably get 100k or more a year but your dating market prospects are awful.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I almost want to asks if your joking.
If you did any leverage on tech stocks especially the best performers this year then last year 2022 your bankrupt especially since you mention Facebook.
It traded $92 last November. Even unlevered your feeling poor. Any even modest leverage and your bankrupt on that move. Tech was absolutely trash in the markets a year ago.
I agree if you can get that job that something at one of the big techs offers a nice comfortable salary. But everyone else in capitalism always has a bit of failure risks which is my main point that the rich people have always faced a brutal failure at some point.
If your a high IQ guy taking risks the best advice is to find some doctor to marry with stability.
sliders1234
1yr ago
This is a fair critique and the issue with this particular case of me trying to use it to build up the issues I’m trying to discuss. He would seem to have reasonable exit opportunities that would be something like you don’t get to have your name on the wall anymore but now you need to work for Lennar as a project manager at a fairly good salary.
Cases do exists where the exit wouldn’t be as foreseeable like if your industry isn’t doing well and you were facing structural obsolescence.
This is a suicide posts about an entrepreneur who failed and is going thru certain twitter communities.
https://twitter.com/smb_attorney/status/1720486539325587858?s=46&t=aQ6ajj220jubjU7-o3SuWQ
https://twitter.com/moseskagan/status/1720231141826015303?s=46&t=aQ6ajj220jubjU7-o3SuWQ
https://twitter.com/moseskagan/status/1720232058109469137?s=46&t=aQ6ajj220jubjU7-o3SuWQ
A few thoughts.
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Yes business owners do kill themselves when their business fails. Capitalism does have brutal aspects.
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I laugh when the one guy posts go talk to a therapists here’s the suicide prevention helpline. When your business is failing your issues are not lefty mental health. Your dealing with a real issue of not being able to provide for your family and seeing all your dreams disappear. It’s one of the most emasculating things that can happen to someone especially someone who is use to being able to handle stuff
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He shouldn’t have killed himself. I’d assume he could have found some consulting or being an employee for a bit gig.
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Society has very little tolerance for failed men. After the fact everyone will say he showed some signs and should have helped out. When you are failing you have the stench of failure and people honestly try to run away from you.
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I know someone whose dad killed themselves so when there business failed. I always thought the lefts argument that rioting and looting isn’t damaging was false. Being able to provide for your family is life and it’s something men take very personality.
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Females somehow survive with nothing. Not sure how but realistically society is far kinder to widowed mothers.
sliders1234
1yr ago
How many Jews feel like this now? Glad you all are feeling how I’ve felt for a few years that your just an ethnic white now and hopefully we can ally. Eisman from the Big Short (funny how Jews pop up in any event) says all his family went to UPenn and UPenn is dead to them now.
I said a week or two ago if the Jews picked some random school like Eastern Kentucky it would be a top 5-10 school in a generation.
https://twitter.com/sfmcguire79/status/1720428030168895506?s=46&t=aQ6ajj220jubjU7-o3SuWQ
sliders1234
1yr ago
Simplistically I think it comes down to empathy versus brutal neoliberalism. There is always some interest group losing to market forces so they care about them and do something to help them but it then restricts supply.
Well lawfare exist, and with enough prosecutorial power you can find some regulation that’s broken to throw a guy in jail especially anyone whose had to make a lot of decisions. So in practice it just becomes an ability to put political opponents in jail.
Obama had Rezko. Clinton had perjury. Hillary had document management issues. Biden well has his whole crime family. Bush probably broke some war crimes if I look into it. They could all be imprisoned with control of the justice system.
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