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PaperclipPerfector  2mo ago (text post)   28375 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of February 19, 2024

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There have been two recent high profile shootings. On February 11th, J. Genesse Moreno opened fire at Joel Osteen's megachurch in Houston. On February 14th, nearly two dozen were injured at the Super Bowl victory parade in Kansas City. Even beyond the typical reaction to gun violence, both have culture war angles. But the details of the cases and the media coverage have been different.

Moreno was born in 1987 during the El Salvador civil war. A quarter of the Salvadoran population emigrated; half of them came to the US, where they were granted Temporary Protected Status (TPS) and allowed to work.

There's been a lot of interest in her name and sex. Why did she call herself Jeffrey? Was she transgender like the Nashville shooter? Men commit homicide at about seven times the rate as women, so we're surprised when we hear about the exceptions. She struggled with her mental health and there is some overlap between schizophrenia and gender dysphoria.

When there's significant culture war over an issue, it can be hard to decide what to trust. When the media reports there is "no evidence" that she's trans, what does that really mean? Here, the plain meaning is correct. Jeffrey is her birth name, which is unusual but not bizarre. The media repeatedly claims that she uses multiple aliases, but this seems to just be her name. Sometimes she goes by her middle name. She's consistently used female pronouns, maintained a feminine appearance, and one of her crimes was theft of women's cosmetics. I don't know old she was when she left El Salvador, but she was born in a country with ten times the homicide rate of the United States.

Her public arrest record starts when she turned 18 in 2005. She consistently pleaded guilty for reductions to misdemeanors. In 2005, she was sentenced to 20 days for failure to stop. In 2010, she was sentenced concurrently to 180 days for assault; 30 days for theft; and 75 days for evading arrest.

Conviction of two or more misdemeanors could result in the loss of TPS status and removal. However, she was able to stay in the USA, and may have later gained permanent residency from her marriage. In her 2022 plea she claimed to be a US citizen.

The vast majority of Salvadorans were Catholic, but at some point Morena converted to Islam. Despite the controversy of interfaith marriage, in 2015, while working at the Spaghetti Warehouse in Houston, she met her future husband: Enrique Carranza III. He was Jewish with a criminal history of attempted sexual assault on a child. His mother says this was a statutory rape case, and the girl was 14 (the registry says 12) with a fake driver's license indicating 17.

After their marriage in September 2015, Enrique reports she became abusive. She was on medication for schizophrenia and lupus, but stopped during her pregnancy and they became estranged. In November 2016, she gave birth three months prematurely. On her son Samuel's birth certificate, she reported the father as deceased. Perhaps due to postpartum psychosis, she was involuntarily hospitalized.

Enrique found out about the birth, but their relationship did not improve. He accused her of neglecting their child. They accused each other of making threats. Their marriage continued to deteriorate, and Enrique moved to Florida in 2021, where he failed to register as a sex-offender and is currently in prison. Moreno dismissed her lawyer, choosing to represent herself, but the divorce was eventually settled in 2022, with her retaining custody of their son.

In December 2023, she bought an AR-15 style rifle and put a Palestine decal on it. She had been making anti-semetic Telegram posts and fought with her neighbors.

On February 11th, she brought her son to the church. Under a trench coat, she had her AR-15; in a backpack a .22 caliber rifle. Brandishing the AR-15, she entered past an unarmed guard and fired in a hallway. Two off-duty police, working security at the church, fired multiple shots. Moreno died at the scene, falsely claiming she had a bomb. A man was hit in the hip, and is recovering. Her son was shot in the head, with uncertain and likely poor outcome. Because of the lack of confirmation that Moreno shot her son, I assume he was shot by the off-duty police.

There's calls to change Texas gun laws, such as adding a red flag law. People are mostly focusing on her mental health, but depending on how Rahimi goes, it may make more sense to focus on her conviction of a violent misdemeanor.

A few days later, after the victory parade in Kansas City, a group of teens got into an argument and started shooting in the general direction of each other. At least a dozen people were shot, including Elizabeth Galvan, who died. Channeling their football heroes, the crowd tackled a suspected shooter, and three were arrested: a man, who was released, and two juveniles who remain in custody.

Their names and pictures won't be released until they are charged with felonies, but many are invoking Coulter's Law to explain the delay. Governor Parson called them thugs; Mayor Lucas called this a racist dog whistle, confirming the race of the juveniles.

Mass shootings similar to this happen almost every day. You can look at the gun violence archive and see the repeated tragedy of young black men unable to resolve their disputes, reaching for their guns, and shooting without aiming. They don't make the news, and our picture of gun violence is distorted. As the Times reports:

The shooting was news around the world because of when and where it unfolded. But in many respects, the circumstances were all too familiar in a country where guns and gun violence are pervasive

“If this exact same thing happened in a gas station or in a neighborhood or in another community, no one would be talking about it,” said James Densley, a professor of criminal justice at Metro State University in Minnesota who studies youth violence.

Kansas City has been enduring a lot of that bloodshed. The city has one of the highest murder rates in the nation, and last year 182 people were killed, surpassing a high mark set in 2020. City officials say many of the killings were attributed to arguments, the same cause that investigators cited in the shooting at the Super Bowl parade.

Just want to say this is an excellent post.

Oddly enough, Moreno's arrest record lists her as white non-Hispanic.

Though not transgender, could she be trans-ethnic?

Some posters on 4chan had a bit of fun clicking through public arrest records and comparing the claimed race with the photo. Lots of obviously not white people get falsely recorded as white. But I don't know the proportion of these errors.

Lots of obviously not white people get falsely recorded as white.

There are like 30 million 'white hispanic' Americans, many of whom have some indigenous and/or black ancestry. Whiteness is high status in Latin America so it's not surprising that many Hispanics who obviously have significant pre-Columbian ancestry check the 'white' box and don't check the separate 'ethnic identification' box where you have to pick Hispanic.

Why not also claim blue eyes and blond hair?

The purpose of these descriptors is to assist others in identifying them. Not to enable them to feel high status.

Hopefully our coming ai overlord will classify people more reliably. Or failing that maybe color swatches, paint chips, or crayons.

It's conceivable she has Palestinian ancestry. Her ex-husband is also listed as non-hispanic white—so while this was an interfaith marriage, it wasn't interracial. Or maybe Texas is rife with data entry errors.

I've seen it argued on here that Hispanic immigrants have lower crime rates than white Americans. Seeing pictures like this really drives home how misleading those statistics are.

That was never the argument- Hispanic American crime rates are higher than white crime rates- it was that illegal immigrants commit fewer crimes on average. And that is, as far as anyone can tell, probably true despite some high profile exceptions.

Other than the identity theft, fraudulent documents, driving while uninsured / without a license, false declarations, and other crimes they commit to hide their undocumented status.

Maybe prosecuted for fewer crimes on average?

Genesse Moreno

For more culture war relevance, Moreno seems to have voted in the 2020 election.

https://twitter.com/o____principe/status/1757299884229582857

Consistent with her statement on her 2022 plea, it's possible she was naturalized: perhaps in 2018, after three years of not quite living in marital union. Her prior convictions would count against her, but there seems to be some discretion. Enrique's mother Walli talks about Moreno being deportable for not putting Enrique on Samuel's birth certificate, but I think she's talking about in 2017. Walli seems confused about legal matters.

There's calls to change Texas gun laws, such as adding a red flag law. People are mostly focusing on her mental health, but depending on how Rahimi goes, it may make more sense to focus on her conviction of a violent misdemeanor.

Lina Hidalgo calling for this will not get it done; if anything it makes it less likely. ‘Tightening the rules around violent crimes getting bargained down to misdemeanors for the nth time’ is a reasonable technocratic thing that Texas might do if it gets around to it, though, and it’s possible that would have stopped this crazy woman from attempting to shoot up a church.

‘Tightening the rules around violent crimes getting bargained down to misdemeanors for the nth time’ is a reasonable technocratic thing that Texas might do if it gets around to it

I'd put that in the "not likely anywhere at all". And Texas as a whole can't do much either. These are all local decisions made by prosecutors offices based around a bunch of overworked, understaffed, underpaid ASAs and ADAs doing triage on a messy docket. Dealing with violent criminals as violent criminals is much harder than dealing with them when they are doing other, easy to prove, bad things like shoplifting and being illegal immigrants. Thats why things like the no-pros on shoplifting has such outsized effects. That is a 2 hour bench trial and then with 3 strikes or similar laws you've got someone off the street for 90 days, then 180 then 365, etc. A felony trial is going to take 2 days minimum.

Their names and pictures won't be released until they are charged with felonies, but many are invoking Coulter's Law to explain the delay. Governor Parson called them thugs; Mayor Lucas called this a racist dog whistle, confirming the race of the juveniles.

Adding to Coulter's Law, Sailer's Law of Mass Shootings

If there are more wounded than killed, then the shooter is likely black.

If there are more killed than wounded, then the shooter is likely not black.

With 1 dead and 22 wounded, that's all I needed to hear.

Empirical Verification of Sailer’s Law - there is some truth to this "law" (the odds ratio is about 2.4:1) but thinking it is anywhere near conclusive evidence is crazy

there is some overlap between schizophrenia and gender dysphoria.

That study is ridiculous. It seems to have been written specifically to present the single undocumented case study involving the most perfect possible patient to demonstrate a link between schizophrenia and dysphoria, a guy who ramped up attempts to transition only during psychotic breaks. It defines dysphoria, but never defines psychosis. This might be cynical, but it looks to me like two doctors building careers for themselves as experts in psychotic dysphoria based on one guy whose schizophrenia cleared up after 5 visits.

Check it out, the the conclusion reads (emphasis mine):

This case presentation depicts a clear pattern of gender identity change from male to female coinciding solely with psychotic breaks of schizoaffective disorder, bipolar type. The authors postulate that gender dysphoria can co-occur with other psychiatric disorders or as a direct result of acute psychosis. It is important to note the distinction between “gender dysphoria” and “transgender/gender non-binary identity”. As stated above, gender dysphoria occurs when a discrepancy between one’s sex assigned at birth and one’s gender identity causes distress or impairment in function while transgender/gender non-binary identity is an umbrella term for people whose gender identity is different from the sex assigned to them at birth. It is important to note that one can occur without the other and not everyone with gender dysphoria symptoms would benefit from HRT, surgery, or other gender-affirming interventions. On the other hand, many transgender individuals and gender non-binary individuals who do not meet the criteria for gender dysphoria may benefit considerably from gender-affirming treatments. Additionally, the authors consider that it would be noteworthy to study gender variance during the various stages of schizoaffective disorder to better understand if gender dysphoria tends to occur more during periods of psychotic episodes versus mood episodes.

The authors emphasize the critical importance of distinguishing between the two presentations of gender dysphoria (co-occurring with psychiatric disorders or as a direct result of acute psychosis) to ensure an accurate diagnosis before proceeding with treatment for gender concerns. A thorough diagnostic evaluation, physical examination, and the collection of collateral information are all necessary steps in the proper diagnosis and the allocation of treatment planning. Additionally, the patient’s capacity to make decisions should be well-established before proceeding with any plans for treatment. Furthermore, emphasis should be placed on the consideration of each case on an individual basis with unique needs as the field of medicine moves briskly towards recognizing health equity at every level of medical attention

I don't know if it's an invention, but I wouldn't be surprised at all.

This isn't the only study on this topic. Clearly schizophrenia is not the main cause of gender dysphoria, and this may just be a case of everything is correlated.

One of my early hypotheses to explain the use of "male aliases" on her criminal record was that her psychotic episodes involved both crime and dysphoria. It turns out this was doubly incorrect: she didn't use male aliases, and didn't have dysphoria.

I am specifically bitching about that study, it looks like a scam. I'm not disputing the idea that there is a link between dysphoria and schizophrenia, and personally I think it's guaranteed to be stronger than "everything is correlated" (although that is a brilliant piece that everyone should read) because I don't think the scientific community puts in anywhere near enough effort to determine a physical and neurological difference between dysphoria and psychosis.

Which is not to say there is no difference, or that all gid sufferers are in the throes of psychosis, but that a diagnosis of gid precludes the possibility of psychosis on political grounds (namely the stigma attached to it) and the diagnosis is too often applied without any neurological tests whatsoever.

That first study you link here is much better (I don't have time to read the second right now.)

Carranza III. He was Jewish with a criminal history

He’s a dark skinned (so not biracial) black man with a Hispanic last name. I think it’s quite unlikely he was actually Jewish. It’s possible he was one of those Puerto Ricans or Dominicans who claim they’re actually Jewish to seem more interesting (surprisingly common, iirc AOC used to do this). Or he’s just a black Hebrew Israelite.

I stand proven wrong when his halachic conversion (or birth) is confirmed of course.

There's speculation that he's adopted. His mother, Walli Carranza, is a Rabbi.

The one possibility I neglected! Thanks for the link.

Given his mother’s appearance I would be surprised if a biracial son with even an extremely dark-skinned black man would look like Carranza, but it certainly can’t be ruled out completely.

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