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PaperclipPerfector  10mo ago (text post)   24129 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of June 10, 2024

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FDA vs Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine, the mifepristone case, was decided by SCOTUS. Full verdict here. The anti-abortion plaintiffs lose 9-0 on standing, with (quite properly for a case lost on standing) no discussion of the merits. Kav writes for the majority, with Thomas concurring on a technical point of standing law (on one of three theories of standing advanced by AHM the majority think they lose on the facts, but Thomas admits that this is correct under current precedent buy under a correct reading of the Constitution he thinks they lose on the law instead).

Quick thoughts:

  • The unanimous opinion treats this as an easy standing case. It is somewhat longer than an opinion needs to be in an easy standing case, which suggests that at least some of the justices wanted to benchslap Judge Kacsmaryk and the 5th Circuit panel.
  • Standing requirements make lawfare harder. If the right-wing Justices wanted to unleash a campaign of right-leaning lawfare then they could have decided this case differently, so it looks like the small-c conservative aversion to lawfare is holding up even with a right-wing Court.
  • Nevertheless, I suspect the pro-life movement can find a plaintiff with standing - perhaps a Catholic mail carrier who objects to delivering abortifacients could sue under the Comstock Act (which looks like the plaintiffs' best argument on the merits). But nothing is going to be decided before the election if a plaintiff wiht standing files a new suit.
  • The Project 2025 says that an incoming Republican administration should aggressively enforce the Comstock Act (which is prsumptively constitutional post-Dobbs) against pharmacies posting mifepristone to patients. This would render this litigation irrelevant.

The Project 2025 says that an incoming Republican administration should aggressively enforce the Comstock Act (which is prsumptively constitutional post-Dobbs) against pharmacies posting mifepristone to patients. This would render this litigation irrelevant.

Trump is at least aware enough to realize that hardcore prolife is very much a minority position in American politics. Some on the right seem to have run away with their own personal copium on this subject because polling shows most people don’t support unlimited abortion on demand until birth, but that doesn’t mean these pills used until the 10 week point are widely opposed at all.

The best thing the next GOP president can do on abortion is say it’s not federal business and let the states handle it. Getting trapped into promising federal / congressional restrictions would be a big mistake and highly unpopular.

I suspect Trump's personal opinion on abortion is very favorable; a guy who likes (or at least liked) to sleep around is going to want the backstop. Anyway, he's already said "it’s not federal business and let the states handle it".

Having all learned that Trump raw dogged a porn star and his joke about how his peronal Vietnam was dodging STDs, I'd be shocked if he wasn't responsible for at least one abortion.

You'd think they'd have spent the last 9 years hunting for the barest shred of evidence of this if there were any.
Even if Dems wouldn't touch it for fear of offending the sacred idol of abortion, some Lincoln Project group would do it (assuming they actually have independent oppo programs and aren't just puppets of a dem "non-profit.")

Like his business dealings, I'm continually surprised at how little dirt they've managed to pull up on him. In NYC real estate work I'd assumed he had at least a few skeletons in the closet/at the bottom of the harbor.

I don't know what to make of it. Maybe he literally only fucked porn stars so he could brag about it to other rich guys, and his body count isn't even very high?
I could honestly see that.

I'm continually surprised at how little dirt they've managed to pull up on him. In NYC real estate work I'd assumed he had at least a few skeletons in the closet/at the bottom of the harbor.

Most of the NYC real estate dirt existed for decades in the open because it was NY tabloid fodder, like destroying the Bonwit Teller statues, various lawsuits from tenants of the usual slumlord type, the rape allegation by an ex wife etc. Trump was famous enough that anything juicy was saleable already and so had mostly already been printed. The stuff that wasn’t was more minor, like Access Hollywood. He wouldn’t have had anyone killed, he dealt with the mafia through the unions like all NY real estate developers, and they handle their own business.

(assuming they actually have independent oppo programs and aren't just puppets of some dem "non-profit.")

While I doubt this, I also don't think the DNC would shy away from having their proxies couch anti-Trump arguments in anti-abortion language assuming they thought it would work. Maybe the porn stars were all on birth control(I'd assume that people who have sex for a living are).

That's a good point. Can't see Trump ever doing the old "baby I love you, but I need you to get this abortion because I can't leave my wife for you just yet. Come on, it's for us!"

More like "you and I both know it's 1-in-10 I'm the father, how's that paternity suit going to work out for you?"

Like his business dealings, I'm continually surprised at how little dirt they've managed to pull up on him. In NYC real estate work I'd assumed he had at least a few skeletons in the closet/at the bottom of the harbor.

I'd expect that there are more people out there under NDA's or he otherwise has some sort of kompromat on relevant associates. Also I think his reputation as 'Teflon Don' and not backing down in the face of dirt being used against him limits the perceived effectiveness of (and thus motivation for) those kind of attacks.

Agree, if Maples did come out and say she had one Trump would simply deny he had anything to do with it, say it was “a shame” and move on, it wouldn’t hurt him.

I'd suggest that second option: a) more talk than action when it comes to how much sex he's had, no surprise there; but also want to consider the related but separate reason b) the people with whom he does have sex have some mixture of strong NDAs, financial relationships, and aversion to publicity. For example his ex-wives were much more silent than you'd expect two ex-wives of a president to be (and Ivana passed away two years ago, before Dobbs). As a point of fact, Marla Maples has hinted at exactly what you'd expect: She has a strong NDA and a kid who is Trump's daughter.

In fact Marla Maples stated very clearly she personally was very pro-choice. I'd say strong odds she had an abortion but is not speaking about it for the aforementioned reasons.

Are you talking about McDougal?

I mean Stephanie A. Gregory Clifford known professionally as Stormy Daniels.

But if he no-condom fucks one woman he only met once before then I suspect did it with other women.

I don’t think it is clear he did that. Stormy Daniels radically changed her story. She isn’t trustworthy.

Point taken. But "my personal Vietnam was dodging STDs" Trump publicly presents himself as the sort of guy who does that. Which could also be a ruse.

We don't really know, but I rather suspect that Trump has made unwise sexual decisions. As plainly stated by himself and at least one sexual partner.

Oh agreed there. Just not convinced he had sex with stormy (whereas much clearer that he had sec with McDougal).

Clearly a jury who heard the facts more directly than you and I felt differently, and I'm inclined to trust them.

Woah buddy. Coming in shooting hot but not aware of the facts.

  1. The legal issue in the Trump trial did not turn on whether Trump did or didn’t have sex with Stormy. It was orthogonal.

  2. The jury made up of almost certainly Trump haters?

  3. Do you also believe OJ was innocent? Believe it or not sometimes Juries get things wrong. Here that was exacerbated by a very biased judge.

  4. Happy to elucidate the numerous legal problems with the conviction but seems like your mind is made up.

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A sentiment that never made sense to me. Aren't juries prevented from independent investigation, aren't allowed to directly interrogate anyone or anything, and commonly have arguments excluded from consideration, when a judge doesn't like them?

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