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ulyssessword  7mo ago (text post)   2139 thread views

Canada Federal Election 2025

Today is the day!

Poll aggregator: https://338canada.com/

Live results: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/

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Polls closed in Newfoundland two hours ago, and it's not looking good for the pollsters. CBC has called two seats for the Conservatives and they're leading in a third, while three have been called for the Liberals and they're leading in a fourth. The prediction was 7-0 Liberal (two "toss up", five "Lib. Likely").

The Maritimes are closer to the prediction, with the Conservatives leading/called in 8 ridings vs. the prediction of 7.

I'm confused about how Canadian regions are divided. Which ridings are you counting? Central Newfoundland, Terra Nova, Avalon, Long Range, Labrador...what am I missing?

I'm confused about how Canadian regions are divided.

Join the club. There are multiple different systems used interchangeably. Some of the regions include:

  • the Maritimes: Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and PEI
  • Atlantic Canada: the Maritimes plus Newfoundland and Labrador
  • Quebec
  • Ontario
  • Central Canada: Quebec and Ontario
  • Western Canada: Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and sometimes BC
  • the Prairie Provinces: Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and usually Alberta
  • BC
  • the North: Yukon, NWT, and Nunavut.

Which ridings are you counting? Central Newfoundland, Terra Nova, Avalon, Long Range, Labrador...what am I missing?

You're missing Cape Spear and St John's East.

Better yet: Manitoba is only “Western Canada” if you’re in Toronto or farther east. Ask people from Manitoba where they are and they’ll tell you they’re in the centre of Canada and Western Canada is everything from Saskatchewan on, which is damn fucking right if you look at an actual map. And then tell people in Québec you’re from Manitoba or Saskatchewan and they’ll say “Oh, like you’re from the Midwest?” Which is some sort of frequent Mandela effect-type misapplication of a purely American term by people for whom it’s all just Anglophone flyover country anyways.

Nah, I'm from Saskatchewan, and Manitoba is one of us. We're both part of Western Canada, along with Alberta (but not BC).

they’ll tell you they’re in the centre of Canada and Western Canada is everything from Saskatchewan on, which is damn fucking right if you look at an actual map.

Now I want geographically-defined regions. Anything below the 49th parallel is the "Deep South", 49-55 is "South", 55-66.5 is "Central", and anything in the Arctic circle is "North", with 80+ degrees being the "Far North". BC and Alberta are "West", Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and western Ontario are "Central", while the rest of Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada is "East".

“Oh, like you’re from the Midwest?”

See also: 38 degrees in the Middle East

Roughly, Canadian regions are divided as follows:

  • Quebec (Lower Canada)
  • Toronto-Montreal (Upper Canada)
  • Maritimes (Atlantic Canada- they'll argue they have distinct identities, and they do, but they're too small to be relevant here)
  • West (Everything Else)

Take US politics, remove all the checks and balances that prevent SF/NYC/DC from turning the US into a one-party state, and you have Canadian politics. It's a very simple country to understand.

  • fake france
  • fake NY
  • fake midwest
  • fake seattle

If you're going to do it this way you need to include fake Texas.

Probably helpful to keep in mind that a big chunk of the population operates under an even simpler system: World Class City and Rest Of Canada.

And they know they're fake, and they're very, very self-conscious about being fake.

Personally I mentally separate the West and BC. When people talk about "the West" they are not talking about Coquitlam.

BC is split between "Left Coast" and "Western Canada", with the former having a higher population, but the latter covering more area.

If you want a breakdown of the situation in BC you have but to look at the election map- notice how, much like some states, the small city runs more or less roughshod over the rest of the province.

It didn’t necessarily used to be that way, but it is that way now, functionally permanently; turns out city vs. everyone else is a strong local maximum for the city.

The GVRD might as well be its own province at this point; it creates the same problems for the rest of BC that Ottawa does for all of Canada.

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