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There are a lot of links here, but at least the helicopter one seems to be a Russian psyop - Ukraine used helicopters close enough to the front for Russia to film, with footage released of their landing, this then became claims of helicopters lost in the comments with no footage, instead all I saw was grainy footage of FPV attacks on individual soldiers from another location? Have you got any footage of an actual blackhawk being downed or a clear continuity? Ukraine certainly loves to publish their helicopter kills.
Pokrovsk itself has been fought over for 1 year 3 months now - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pokrovsk_offensive (I hate Wikipedia too, but that start date seems pretty fair, surely?), and while pressure is mounting along the line there's hardly crazy breakthroughs considering Russia is still outside of Bakhmut (which was hoped to open up new offensive options), and the Donbass is ~10% Ukrainian? It seems like Ukraine is launching a limited counterattack, like with the 47th at Andriivka, where they use fresh elites to push up and hold a pocket open, and get the last men out before withdrawing - a pocket it should be stressed that is hardly Stalingrad.
I think it is still unclear how this will end as a war, Ukraine is under a lot of pressure but Russia is seriously underperforming and taking a lot of strategic hits with a base that might come apart over years more fighting (have you seen the refineries campaign? How many haven't been hit at this point?). However, you seem certain that this was all folly, and Ukraine will crumble with a situation worse than surrendering at letting Russia do what they will? This time next year, do you think there's going to be a lasting peace agreement? What broadly would be its terms - unconditional Russian wargoals from day 1?
Total collapse of the front and Russian annexation all the way to Lyviv. The 2014 fortifications are about to fall, after that it’s going to be very hard to prevent major collapses of the undermanned front line. Ukraine has no leverage left for a settlement. Insurgency is unlikely given the amount of casualties.
Once Severodonetsk/Popasna/Bakhmut/Avdiika/Chasiv Yar fall the kokhols will be shattered and they will fall back like the cornered rats they are. They totally won't fall back to the next defensive line that, undermanned and underprovisioned as they are, still managed to hold off the unsupported spears.
It'll work this time! This time the kokhols really are on the ropes and going to collapse! Once Kramatorsk falls then Russia will have finally achieved the territorial victory they achieved in 2014!
"And then the enemy will lose the will to fight" has got to be one of my favorite theories of victory.
It's such a refreshing evergreen classic, compared to the largely discarded 'Trump is going to force Ukraine to accept terms or else cut off all support,' theories, or the 'Ukrainian desertions will lead Russia's massive manpower to roll over the defenders like a tidal wave' predictions, or the 'Russia strike campaign will crush the Ukrainian power grid and leave them to freeze to death over the winter' variants.
Worked in Afghanistan.
A clan/warlord-militia-based army is rather different in this respect than an organized military, though one could argue that a clan/warlord-militia-based army did exist in the territory of Ukraine at one time (the Donbass "people's republics", before Russia put the chaos to an end)
I have a suspicion Nybbler was thinking of the US army ...
Yes, it's the United States which lost the will to fight in Afghanistan. Also the Afghan National Army but I'm not sure they had any to begin with.
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