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I've previously posted on the Motte about the state-funded Swedish Investigative Committee For a Future with Children (Swed. Utredningen för en framtid med barn) with instructions to look into the recent decline in fertility. Recently the Committee released its second report more closely detailing the root cause of the decline – which women are not having children anymore? As before here's a link in case you know the Swedish or want to use an AI to give you the uptake. https://framtidmedbarn.se/rapport/nr-2-fran-hoga-till-sjunkande-fruktsamhetstal-hur-ser-situationen-i-sverige-ut/
The focus of this report is a lot narrower than the previous one which means there are fewer fun takeaways. Two facts stand out. There's been a lot of speculation about coupling not working, people delaying childrearing so they are unable to get that third child, et cetera, but the report doesn't bear any of these concerns out. Men and women are still moving in together, but the major driver of the decline is that there's a growing cohort in which the couple never decides to have kids. A lot of DINK-couple (Double Income, No Kids) are no longer as eager to become DICKs (Double Income, Couple o' Kids) as they used to be. This fact is concerning because I have a suspicion it has a strong potential to rapidly initiate a self-replicating demographic spiral. DINKs have more resources compared to DICKs, and if more people choose to stay DINKs then life for DICKs will probably become even harder, which in turn will lead to even fewer DICKs. I think the carrot for DICKs probably won't be enough here: society probably also needs to put a dent in the wallet of the DINKs, maybe throught some tax scheme, to encourage more childrearing.
Beyond that the report also has a few tidbits of interest here and there. The common narrative of a foreign underclass quickly and decisively outbreeding the native population isn't quite on the mark for example, as the report points out that second-generation immigrants tend to have about as many children as natives (first-generation is another story, and a large part of the very justifiable demographic anxiety in Europe). On the other hand that also means immigration cannot possibly solve the issue long term or even medium term; while many children of immigrants often learn Swedish quite poorly, commit more crimes than average and remain largely unintegrated for vast periods of time, they at least seem to take our individualistic childless culture to heart.
This is less meaty than the previous post on the subject, but I think that's enough to bring some fodder for discussion. What do you think should be done to support our DICKs? Should DINKs be made to pay to make their lives easier? Is the reports take naive on the questions of immigration and demography?
At least around me, there are four broad classes of people who don't have kids. Some people are in more than one group.
I think all four of those cases have different solutions, and to be honest, I don't know if I know what those solutions are.
For the first case, I think several Eastern European countries have tried fairly generous tax credits to have children. I'm sure there are people here who are far more interested in this topic than I am, but if memory serves, it didn't do too much to move the needle. I vaguely recall it causing people who had two kids to consider a third, but it didn't make people who had zero kids more likely to have one.
For the second case, it's going to take a lot of work. There are a lot of variations on this - I simply used AGC as a simple example that I see a lot. Trump and the fact that every C-level executive in the country seems to be all but publicly pleasuring themselves over the idea of an impending jobpocalypse ushering in a new era of feudalism fit as well. Fundamentally, it's a problem of hope. There are an increasing number of people who have essentially zero hope that tomorrow is going to be better than today. I'm not sure how you fix that when a lot of powerful people seem to have a vested interest in keeping people scared and hopeless.
The third option is difficult. As somebody in this bucket, I hope to adopt one day. Accessible CRISPR or cheap genetic screening would also be nice.
I have no idea about the fourth option.
Option 5: I can’t find a partner so I can’t have kids. Many such cases.
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I think what you’re talking about touches on a bigger problem I’ve noticed culturally, and even within myself: People don’t want to do things unless they’re ideal.
Most media and entertainment you can consume nowadays is exceptionally optimized. Not to say it’s good - but it’s optimized to be approachable and easy to consume. I often think of video games, porn, YouTube/netflix, and the like. These are digital items, so you might think it can’t possibly apply to things that are limited to real life, but it’s really insidious because of two reasons:
For 1, I cannot understate how insidious this optimized mindset is. I see it in others and in myself. I remember I used to fuck with config files and nested dependencies to make and install game mods, and otherwise set up my system how I wanted. Now, the idea of downloading a mod without an installer/loader is exhausting to me, and generally I just don’t (I also have less free time in general nowadays, but even when I had limited free time as a younger man I was willing to get my digital hands dirty). Installing mods for a supported game has never been easier, so why not just do that instead of fucking with files for an unsupported one to get a mod working?
Websites used to have nested menus and lots of options. Studies have shown that simply increasing the clicks needed to access an option by one dramatically decreases usage of that option. Understandably they’ve worked to minimize this effect, but now we’re very used to sites with exceptionally slick UI, or worse, a mobile design where you scroll endlessly. Pretty much every app that can use this format does because it will be outcompeted and die (see: Instagram and YouTube adding reels and shorts in response to TikTok). Movies are the same. Sure, you could go to an unsearchable or otherwise seedy website and stream/torrent it (after installing and activating your VPN) and waiting for it to download… or you could go to a very slick Netflix/Hulu/HBO site and credit card a few bucks away.
None of these on their own are harmful. They’re understandable and even economically beneficial. But the fact is that everything you do is exceptionally easy.
Now factor in 2. Your food can be delivered with a couple taps on your phone. Sure, you could call and pick up the food for cheaper, but this is easier. You can invest in the latest meme stock, or find an app for a well regarded investment bank (depending on your financial literacy). Sure, you could do research and build a good portfolio, but this is easier. You can scroll your phone endlessly and watch some slop while you eat. You could find some activity or go somewhere nice, but this is easier.
It has never been easier to be fed something that seems good enough, and the mental load is exceptionally low for all of it.
I think this has far reaching implications for a lot of life, but keeping it relevant to kids: I’ve noticed in everyone (again, myself included) that decisions that fall off this tap-to-slop pipeline are incredibly more difficult than they used to be; or rather, should be. Buying a car? I have to cross reference information on models and years and be ready to stand firm against a seller (be it private or a dealership) who is incentivized to bilk as much cash out of me as possible. Job applications? I need to craft my resume and be ready to answer questions that cast doubt on my abilities. Buying a house? I need to look into dozens of factors both in the market and the specific locations and houses I’m looking at.
You will notice that these examples have services that sell themselves on helping you out. Previously, we had family, friends, and other networking to fill in, but we are getting noticeably more atomized. These services likely won’t give you the optimal solution, but they are optimized to give you a solution within the safe and curated app based world we’re all trapped in.
Kids have no such guarantees. Not even a service or app. Everything is something you need to judge for yourself, and put in serious legwork to not only do at all, but do well enough to end up not neglecting or otherwise failing your child.
Oh, and all those services and apps that conveniently bilk money from you and effortlessly fill your time are now an extravagance you can’t afford. You are not only embarking on a path that requires serious thought and effort, you have to explicitly give up the entire ecosystem that society has cultivated around you.
When the world is built of sure things, kids are a very unsure thing, and that makes them novel and scary in a way no other generation has experienced.
This is the crux of it. You can talk about cultural meddling, you can talk about financial insecurity, and those are problems for sure. But to me the biggest cause is the silent problem in the way people live their lives every day. There are obviously degrees to this but except for the most unplugged of us, this way is not conducive to risk taking. Being comfortable is simply too easy.
As for me, I have a young child. What’s funny to me is I haven’t given up all that much. I still order out, I still watch movies and TV, I still play some games, I still have some hobbies that I get to. Sure, there are limitations, but life goes on. I credit this to two things: 1) I’m a bit of a Luddite and eschewed paid services and apps for convenience purposes. What few services I paid for I terminated when my kid was born. 2) I always wanted kids, and I realized a few years back that the purpose it gives me outweighs any insecurity in my life. Without both of these factors, it would have been much harder to justify it.
I’m reminded of the meme of clippy looking at you with the prompt “It looks like you’re waiting for ideal circumstances to make a change. Might I remind you that ideal circumstances cannot and will not exist?”
The only options are “I’m aware” and “Wow, rude”. I think society is solidly set in the second prompt, and having the proper response is very difficult when life is fed to you every day. Sure, it’s a cheap and unfulfilling one, but this is easier.
Counterpoint.
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Money seems to work in the States but at levels the government can’t fund. >750k a year seems to have a big boost in fertility. Blue cities it seems impossible to have kids below this. 50% tax rate + expensive real estate + blue states have a bad reputation on public schools.
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I think you made the simple mistake of taking those arguments seriously.
I was about to post a version of this.
This is just online dorks. They only vaguely mean it.
Also, such people are probably just selfish and don't care for any suggestions that would upend their existing lifestyle.
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From what I've learned, it makes people have their next children quicker, but doesn't make them have more of them. Basically, it makes people switch from "we want two kids, but we can't really afford two pregnancies in a row, we need a few years of double income to rebuild our savings" to "okay, we can try for the second one".
Which is not to say it isn't helpful. Moving births earlier still improves a country's demographic situation, because children born earlier will come to childbearing age earlier.
For a toy example, imagine two countries with a completed fertility rate (CFR) of exactly two, but one country has the children at ages 18 and 20, and the other has them at 38 and 40. Two parents who live to 80 in country one will have 16 great great grandchildren, while their equivalents in country two will only have four grandchildren.
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I think "I don't like children." is covering a lot of ground between "I dislike being around children generally" and "I yearn to be a parent but am anxious about whether I'd be bad at it and ruin their childhoods so I won't risk it" (with mid-range options being things like "I like children fine, but there's so much more to life and they're such a time-sink - I'd rather be an uncle!").
I yearn to be a parent feels to me like it fits in the lack of hope box, rather than the don't want to box.
I'll admit that the categories are imperfect, but I think they roughly capture what I've seen. For every one aspiring fun uncles, there are at least five people who disdainfully talk about "breeders".
I don't have any statistics to prove you wrong, but this doesn't describe my experience at all. Even if you back off from "sneer at breeders" to just "actively dislike kids", my perception is that this group is still vastly outnumbered by people whose objection falls into the "too much effort" bucket.
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Perhaps, but the way you'd phrased it seemed to be focused on people who are doomers about the world as a whole, whereas I'm talking about people with self-confidence issues/therapy-culture-induced paranoia about their personal ability to do right by a child.
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I never really believe that money is the factor. Take for example if someone walked up to me and asked me "Hey Daguerrean, why don't you buy a new car?" I suppose I would answer that money was the reason. But let's say they then asked me, "So what car would you want to buy?" Suppose I answered and on-the-spot that person cut me a check for X dollars, X being exactly the price of the car I named. So am I going to go out and buy that car? Of course not! Obviously not! Only if buying a new car is top on my list of priorities of "What I would do if I had X dollars", which presumably it isn't. Maybe I would get some repair done on my house or landscaping. Maybe I would save the X dollars because "Having 10X dollars saved" is a higher priority for me than "Having the new car". In reality, even if the car costs X and money is the reason I don't buy the car, you might have to give me 20*X dollars before I actually go out and buy that new car today. I'm not lying that cost is the reason I don't buy the new car, if the car cost $1 or I had unlimited money I would go buy it today. But it's obviously not the whole story, and a check for $X won't make me buy it.And if buying the car actually were the top of my list of financial priorities I would already have bought it as I routinely make and spend $X.
I think children work the same. I don't think people are lying, and if they had unlimited time and money they probably would have children, but I don't think we can just assume money will fix it. Even if we calculated the cost of raising a child for the first 4 years of life and gave that check to every newly married couple, I imagine the effect would be minimal. It is about the priority of having children. If having children is low priority behind vacations to Europe, new cars, bigger houses, luxury goods and cosmetic surgery then the quantity of money it would take to get them to have children would be absolutely massive. You'd have to pay for the cosmetic surgeries before the dollars had anything to do with children.
I think "money" is misunderstood as a rationale, or possibly underspecified.
There are the kind of financial worries that center around immediate funding issues like paying for diapers while still making rent, etc. and those, as you say, are probably not all that influential.
But "money" also covers a more generalized financial anxiety that comes from not seeing a clear path to prosperity for your child without enormously expensive investments in things like private schools, impressive extracurriculars and service trips, tutoring to make top SATs, etc. The Millennials were the generation who saw their prosperous helicopter parents spend the most on ensuring their path to a good job, and today the path to ensuring your child a solid professional-class career is if anything far more opaque, risky and potentially expensive. Those are worries that could absolutely make a young couple think "Hmm, we should maybe hold off and save for a few more years."
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It's almost certainly true that the marginal dollar of aid wouldn't go directly to having a child. But why do you think it's going to luxury consumption? How many of their higher priorities are boring, responsible things like house repairs? How many are outright virtuous? There's some number of couples out there who are prioritizing their sick or aging parents over having their own kids.
Sure, sneer at the avocado toast. That doesn't apply to everyone.
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Not necessarily. If our only option was to cut people a fully fungible check then sure that wouldn't work. But we could either have accounts that you have to spend on child associated costs, like a healthcare spending account, or more straightforwardly and better give them money if and only if they have a kid. That'd be equivalent to making the car cost $0.
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There's definitely a chance that what they say is not what they believe, but I can only report on what they say. It would be interesting to come up with some kind of questioning line that could tease out any discrepancies between their word and their secret heart.
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