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PaperclipPerfector  2d ago (text post)   7297 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 30, 2026

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I think when the neocons wanted war with Iran, it certainly wasn't this kind of war.

I struggle to see what other kind of war could have been envisioned. Admittedly I'm not military myself, but I certainly hang out with a goodly number of current and former military personnel in various online and IRL spaces from several different branches -- they uniformly say that this is more or less a textbook example of the "American way of war." With focus on as-precise-as-technologically-possible aerial and missile strikes on political and military targets, down to the targeting of specific individuals, supported where possible by Special Forces/CIA paramilitary "dirty tricks" I don't see how this is functionally different from, e.g., the way we went into Afghanistan. The bombardment of Tehran, Isfahan, and IRGC infrastructure looks a lot like 2003 "Shock and Awe" in Iraq.

What, do you think Paul Wolfowitz was jonesing for the 82nd Airborne and 1st Infantry Division to be rolling from Turkey towards Tabriz?

The kind of war that I imagine guys like Kagan want is an extended low to medium intensity conflict like Afghanistan or Iraq circa 2010 that gives them a chance to posture and justify their salaries while funneling money to their friends and sponsors in the contracting world.

This war, at least so far, is not that.

What, do you think Paul Wolfowitz was jonesing for the 82nd Airborne and 1st Infantry Division to be rolling from Turkey towards Tabriz?

Yes, actually.

The big difference is the lack of buildup. There was no effort to sell the war to the public or to the international community. Trump relied on the element of surprise, the Sucker Punch Doctrine.

The result is low support. Even the Republican numbers are hovering in the 80s, where they were in Lizardman Constant territory at this point in the Iraq war. The USA had the Coalition of the Willing, with Britain Australia Poland etc deploying troops in Iraq. In Iran we have...Israel? I mean kinda but Israeli forces don't appear to be under direct command of a US general, where in Iraq all coalition forces were under a US commander (Spartan style).

Now obviously the bright side was the element of surprise, and for whatever reason we can't expect the Israelis to operate under a US command structure...but there are big differences in how the story will be seen.

The big difference is the lack of buildup. There was no effort to sell the war to the public or to the international community.

There was no way Donald Trump could do so. The "public" (meaning the mainstream media) and the "international community" (meaning Euro liberals) could not be convinced by Donald Trump. So he quite rationally did not waste any effort on this unachievable goal. He does seem to have brought the Gulf states into the fold (with the help of a feckless IRGC, granted).

Well, Trump didn't even bother trying to convince a domestic audience. Compact has a good overview of the collapse in basic propaganda efforts: https://youtube.com/watch?v=-GEcO360z1g&t=1484s

As I was saying to @hanikrummihundursvin up thread, to me this issue illustrates just how "siloed" the liberal media bubble has become from more conservative and internationalist ones.

Liberals feel like this came out of nowhere and as a result their first impulse blame the perfidious Jew. Meanwhile everyone else has been speculating about if/when the US would do something about Iran's repeated threats to global shipping, and the answer to those questions turned out to be "Yes" and "March 2026".

The neocon dream was a quick, decisive war to topple the IRI and replace it with a pro-American democracy. The specifics of how that was going to happen were probably pretty hazy and involved both underestimating Iran and overestimating the US, but I really doubt they envisioned an intense-yet-noncommittal air war with no meaningful ground element. As I will never shut up about: this war looks like a failed attempt at gunboat diplomacy with seemingly no plan if Iran didn't immediately cave.

The bombardment of Tehran, Isfahan, and IRGC infrastructure looks a lot like 2003 "Shock and Awe" in Iraq.

Not really. The point of "Shock and Awe"-style tactics is to disrupt enemy command and control so your ground forces can overwhelm theirs with limited organized resistance. There was no ground component to Operation Epic Fury.

This is honestly the problem I have with a lot of Trump 2.0. In broad strokes, a lot of the things the administration are doing could be sensible policies if done well, but instead Trump 2.0 seems intent on doing things in the most foolish and ill-considered way possible.

One of the examples that just gets me is the Harvard situation. Telling Harvard to not be racist was totally reasonable (especially since there was already Supreme Court precedence that what Harvard was doing was not legal), but following that up with, "Oh, and you've got to hire who we tell you to, and give us control of your admissions process so you admit more conservative students" was cuckoo bananas. The Trump administration somehow managed to make Harvard look sympathetic in all of that, and that was no easy feat.

but following that up with, "Oh, and you've got to hire who we tell you to, and give us control of your admissions process so you admit more conservative students" was cuckoo bananas.

How? Academics throughout the country openly admit they discriminate not political/idealogical grounds. What exactly is wrong with telling them to knock it off, if they want to keep getting federal goodies?

I would be okay with us passing a law that prevented discrimination on the basis of political ideology (some jurisdictions in the US already have such laws.) I might even be convinced that individual states passing laws to ensure more viewpoint diversity in state colleges could be a good thing.

But a single individual unilaterally twisting an existing law in order to interfere with hiring and firing decisions of a university in a way that interferes with the basic educational mission of that university is a bridge too far for me. I think universities need to change, but it should be done through gradual reforms or a new march through the institutions, not imposed all at once in a top down way for a variety of reasons.

Wasn't the dear colleagues letter exactly that?

I too would prefer congress establish those limits, but I believe the only way to get there is to have someone make so many intolerable policies following that, that the side that started this with that letter is sickened enough to not want to touch that rail again.

What's wrong with that? Having more conservative intellectuals at the highest level is, if anything, good for national stability- democracies with weak conservative wings deteriorate very fast, much faster than overwhelmingly conservative democracies(Japan etc).

But a single individual unilaterally twisting an existing law in order to interfere with hiring and firing decisions of a university in a way that interferes with the basic educational mission of that university is a bridge too far for me

Is it? Isn't there some conservative college, who's name escapes me, that makes a point of not accepting any federal help so they aren't on the hook for Title IX, and all the other federal fuckery, and the Dems are still always looking for ways to force them to run it their way? Why is it so beyond the pale to put conditions on a university that does get federal money, then?

You're thinking of Hillsdale College.

That's the one! Was at the tip of my tongue, thanks!

Isn't there some conservative college, who's name escapes me, that makes a point of not accepting any federal help so they aren't on the hook for Title IX, and all the other federal fuckery, and the Dems are still always looking for ways to force them to run it their way?

There was, Bob Jones University. They lost not just Federal funds but their tax-exempt status, and then knelt at the altar of equality.

Meanwhile, the University of California and others have explicit political tests for their faculty (in some cases also being fig-leaves for RACIAL tests), and that's fine. It's all who/whom and all very tiresome, and if Trump refuses to let them continue doing that he's not breaking any precedent except in aiming that power at the left for a change.

Why is it so beyond the pale to put conditions on a university that does get federal money, then?

I'm happy for federal money to come with strings attached. But within our system, I would prefer if the strings came from Congress and not from a unilateral action from the president.

It was wrong when Obama tried to do it with the Dear Colleague letter, and it is wrong when Trump tries to do it with the Harvard letter.

In many ways, I would prefer the federal government to stop funding universities altogether, so they couldn't use the withdrawal of funds as a threat against them. But in the context where the funding exists, I do think it should be handled in a way consistent with the principles of our constitutional republic as far as possible.

It was wrong when Obama tried to do it with the Dear Colleague letter, and it is wrong when Trump tried to do it with the Harvard letter.

The problem is that Obama didn't just try, he actually did it, so it's just a normal part of business now, even if you or I are against it in principle.

No offense, but this seems completely unworkable to me. The universities are already simply ignoring existing laws when it suits them, they'll just ignore those, too. They might at most need to find a paper-thin excuse that will allow already sympathetic judges/lawyers to sign it off, but I'm not sure even that is necessary.

A new march is impossible, since the old one was only possible thanks to the conservative old guard allowing it. Which is also the reason they lost to the trumpist new right.

I was going to say the same. That’s a more common thing than most people think.

What kind of war did they want instead

The kind of war where they bomb everyone else, but nobody gets to bomb them.

A quagmire where we set up a long-term occupation force only to reluctantly surrender 20 years later?

The ones where they reap all the benefit.

That remains yet to be seen; this thing is still barely a month old.

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