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I had to make an account to respond to you because I’ve seen your comments the past week. You do realize that this war is incredibly unpopular right? This war guarantees a Democratic wipeout unless in the next week or so Iran collapses and we avoid the economic fallout. So then we probably get an impeachment and the lamest of lame duck presidencies. So this way is a disaster for Trump, MAGA and the Republicans even if we’re winning the war. Plus Trump campaigned on no new wars and America First so he basically now has betrayed his biggest supporters.
Also, what would it take for you to admit this war was a mistake? If we don’t get regime change, they keep their proxies, and they keep their nuclear program, what was the point of this war? What did we win? They now have more leverage than before because they can tank the world economy any time they want.
Last I checked, the Iran war is slightly more popular than the democrats. Granted, by a few percent, but still. And at this stage of the late republic it's anything could happen to begin with; that just makes it harder to tease out.
Given recent electoral results and the midterm chances on the prediction markets, there's good reason to believe a lot of Dem hate is from otherwise Dem supporting groups feeling angry or down about them losing 2026. It's not a great comparison then unless the argument is "well same thing, people are only upset about Iran cause we're not doing well" which uh yeah, we aren't. We're clearly failing at our stated goals while wrecking the world economy. It could be a fair argument but it requires conceding that the war is going poorly.
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If this war doesn’t end soon and prices/inflation keep going up, that will change very quickly.
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Based
I don’t care. My theory is operating at a much higher level than the midterms. We’re talking about global power and America controlling the world’s key infrastructure and nuclear weapons and Donald Trump’s heroic memory in the body politic. I don’t care if Charlemagne loses the midterms or Martin Luther gets impeached.
I don’t think Trump cares either. At least, among his many priorities, solving Iran and the Middle East comes before we pivot to the midterms. Ideally this is wrapped up by then. If not it’s still worth doing.
When did Trump betray me? I’m in favor of all of this. The Iran War is part of America First because it is building a generational victory where America is undisputed hegemon of the world.
I understand that many of Trump’s supporters are dismayed or skeptical. Most of my friends are. I’ve called them all panicans, to their faces.
The proxies we destroyed? The nuke program we destroyed?
Well no, it turns out they can’t. But we can.
Why won't you answer this simple question?
It has now been 29 days since you said that the war will basically be wrapped up in three weeks.
Is it even possible for you to admit that the war was a mistake, or do you believe that everything "achieved" so far has already made it worth it regardless of how it ends? If so, you should just say so, so that we can all update accordingly.
In the post you linked I said five weeks, and it’s been six, so can I say “same difference potato potato” or do I need to explain what someone really means when they say “just a second”?
Because you seemingly phrased this question such that I’m actually irrational and refusing to recognize the truth (“that the war was a mistake”) as though my zealotry is blinding my eyes. Next I can say “nothing can ever convince me” and you can all roll your eyes and write me off? Is it possible for you to admit that the war is going well?
Is this the case, then?
Sure. For example:
Those are the kind of things that would make me say the war was a success. Now it's your turn!
Considering that the war is going well something pretty dramatic would have to change for it to become a failure. But for the sake of argument let's see...
I find it a little amusing that most of these would constitute things being worse than the status quo ante. It seems that if tomorrow Donald announces that the war is over and everyone goes home and we end up where we were before all this mess except Iran spent some missiles and replaced the Ayatollah you'd consider this a smashing success.
Yeah if this war ends and Iran doesn't control the strait and has no military or nuclear weapons that is a victory. By definition.
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You asked for things which would be a failure. Why is it amusing that failure is worse than the status quo ante?
Because prosecuting a war at some cost of blood and treasure only to end up with the status quo ante is a failure.
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I'm going to assume you have the theory of mind to understand how Trump betrayed many of his supporters by claiming he was anti war in the middle east and then going into the middle east, even if you are personally pro war so what is the point of this?
And it's not like they're just no name people, some of the top conservative influencers like Tucker Carlson or Candace Owens or Alex Jones have been targeted and effectively kicked out of MAGA for wanting Trump to do what he said and get out of the middle east.
So I understand the objection here and I want to be careful to answer it without coming off as zealous or irrational -- however, I also want to avoid "speaking past the sale" by accepting the premise that Trump has betrayed his supporters. I don't feel betrayed at all, and I know lots of friends who are fine with everything Trump has done. I also know lots of friends with concerns or objections although the modal response is more "dismay" than "betrayal".
And I understand that people like Tucker and Candace appear to outsiders like the biggest MAGA supporters of all now feeling betrayed -- but I have to tell you I hate these grifters and believe they've done immeasurable damage to conservatism in general and most Trump supporters have no deep well of love for any of these people. (I've hated Tucker for years, you might look through the archives and find me saying nice things about Alex Jones, but in general these people make it harder for us (us here, you and I) to understand each other.)
Trump is right about MAGA, it is all basically about Donald Trump. MAGA recognizes for better and worse that Trump created this political moment, even if not all of it poured out of his head fully-formed like Athena and he was taking advantage of currents that existed dormant in the population. However, basically, there is no vehicle but Trump right now. All these people who thought they could take advantage of Trump to sell their brands and then get off at their stop are confused. There was not actually a massive wave of support for Candace Owens or Tucker Carlson as such, there was a massive wave of support for these people as they were explainers of and conduits to Trump. This is also what happened to Marjorie Taylor Greene, who thought that she had some kind of independent political base she could use to play spoiler and extract concessions. (Oops.) Now that they've all turned on Trump, they've had to build out the new political vessel they call "America First". I believe Fuentes was the first to treat this as a distinct political category, so not everyone is using it to avoid the association, although it's comic anyways because it still comes from something Trump said first. So although it's a little more complicated maybe you see what I mean. The entire rising right wing is downstream of Donald Trump and now all these grifters want to excommunicate him from the church he created. MAGA sedevacantism?
Anyways I am describing the fact of loyalty to Trump and trying to describe what makes somebody like Tucker different from regular people who voted for Trump. (Tucker is especially bad because his texts from 2020 show that he claimed to have hated Trump all along and was hoping for him to lose.) But now I want to discuss the motivations of regular Trump voters briefly.
Within Trumpworld I think there is a lot of variance on how to interpret Iran.
It's true that Trump promised no new forever wars and peace. It's also true that Trump promised that Iran would never be allowed to have nuclear weapons. And he frequently threatens to bomb his enemies and use force when necessary. In a way this is like wanting to have your cake and eat it too. I think there's also a sense that because of Trump's unique focus on diplomacy and deals, it could have been possible for us to have our cake and eat it too. Guess not.
I know a lot of people who thought Trump would not start this war and are genuinely surprised. I also know a lot of people who thought this was contained within Trump's threats to bomb the mullahs, and are basically assuaged that nothing remarkable has happened. What's keeping a lid on everything for now is the idea that this war is supposed to be temporary and contained. We haven't committed to ten years of running Iran and so far America has basically won uninterrupted. Most of my friends who are against the war are hoping that this quietly goes away within a few months and we can focus on the midterms and everything will work out more or less ok. They don't really see this as a great betrayal so much as a great mistake that will detract from what they really care about (immigration and the economy).
For my part -- and I know that my perspective is unusual and therefore not representative but I will go on anyways: -- for my part I am in favor of war because I believe it increases Donald Trump's power to remake America in our image. I want Trump as Lincoln, Trump as FDR. I would basically be in favor of World War III. And I know what that entails and how things could go sideways and I believe that Trump is probably trying to achieve the same global reordering without getting as dramatic as that. But I don't feel betrayed by war in Iran because the simple act of going to war itself was never what I saw as the problem with Afghanistan or Iraq. To my mind the problems were that those wars were not really in America's interests, and that they were then badly-managed and ultimately lost. I don't think the same is true with Iran, I think restructuring the Middle East by dealing with the core problem of Iran is precisely in America's best interests. And I think, ultimately, when this war is done the long-distant future will understand this as one of the most important things Donald Trump ever did.
The current status quo, with Iran's leadership decimated but the IRGC retaining the ability to threaten shipping (ship insurance rates) is not a victory in Iran for Trump. He gambled on a quick decapitation strike, and when that failed to get the IRGC to surrender, Trump is unwilling or politically unable to escalate to ground troops to secure a full victory. It seems impossible for Trump to be viewed as Lincoln or FDR if he only stops at half-measures without the full restructuring of the middle east. In fact, stopping halfway probably going to result in a democrat wave election as they blame him for a failed war.
This seems to me to be doing a lot of mind-reading not in evidence. We don't actually know what risk assessments Trump had in mind before beginning the war and we don't know whether the American military leadership is even dissatisfied or not. (Likewise, we don't know the full range of options available to Trump and can't really judge his actions half-measures: before committing to ground troops there's always Bridge and Power Plant Day?)
What we do know is that American decapitated the Iranian military, there's a lot of confusion as to who's in charge of Iran, and Trump is pursuing negotiations instead of bombing for now. This all suggests that Trump is fine with the pace of progress because he's not in a special rush to change the status quo.
A month ago many posters were predicting total American catastrophe because Iran could threaten the Straits of Hormuz and shut down the global economy. That prediction hasn't held up very well. It has not successfully predicted an American rush to capitulate and given the Iranians terms. It has not successfully predicted America exiting the war. Likewise, the idea that the next Iranian leader would be some incalcitrant hardliner who would refuse American terms even harder doesn't seem born out. And as the Strait shutdown continues global economic apocalypse has mostly not ensued. Prices are up and maybe that matters in other countries. But in America everybody is already talking about the next Current Thing; last week it was the assassination attempt at the White House Correspondents Dinner and redistricting.
I guess we'll wait and see.
Americans have the attention span of a goldfish, so everything can indeed be forgotten by the voters this November. Gas prices hurt the democrats in 2022, but Trump's popularity has proved resilient against what would traditionally crucify a sitting president. Guess we'll see in a few more months.
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They still have their proxies and nuclear material though? Where are you getting that information? Also, Trump doesn’t think the way you think he does. There’s no long term plan he just goes by instinct. That kind of thinking got him into this mess and he’s desperately trying to get himself out of it. The economic knock on effects haven’t even been felt yet.
My prediction is this will probably put into a recession and do long term harm to American’s standing in the world. The stock market will tank this week. I hope I’m wrong but I don’t see any way out of this unless Trump surrenders or Iran’s government falls.
This will be the thing that finally ends the MAGA movement. It’s that big of a mistake.
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