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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   3365 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for February 12, 2023

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Can the Chiefs come back down 14? Or is the Eagles?

To those that didn't watch- the Kansas City Chiefs did in fact come back from being down 14 points to beat the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl- the championship game of the NFL. This means they are the best team in the sport of American gridiron football.

Fans of the sport will argue about two particular calls that the referees made that seem to have strongly changed the game.

I am more interested in the gameclock management that the Chiefs used in the final 2 minutes of the game while things were still tied. It was a very undramatic way of winning at the very end- while quite close to being able to get a touchdown, the Chiefs decided to burn almost all of the time up by kneeling the ball 3 times, then kicking the field goal. There were 11 seconds remaining, and receiving the ball took 3 seconds. This left 8 seconds for Jalen Hurts of the Eagles to throw a single "Hail Mary"- extremely long and accurate pass, which didn't happen.

I wonder if this kind of clock management is defecting in a game theory sense. The Chiefs won the biggest game, but it was in a manner that probably damages interest in the sport and will increase general usage of the tactic.

I could just be salty because I like both Jalen (I'm an Alabama fan) and Mahomes (I have won the past 2 seasons of fantasy football with him as my keeper) and wanted a more dramatic fun end for either.

EDIT: Also the question probably should have been fun thread, but it makes sense you'd put it in daily thread when people might have actually answered before the answer was known.

I think it becomes the optimal strategy the more the rules favor the receiver and the passing game. The best way to stop an offense for teams whose defense is anything short of the Legion of Boom is to deny their offense any time with the ball after you pull ahead. I don't think the NFL is willing to shift rules to favor defenses yet. Games like the 2009 AFC championship where defenses dominate don't usually post the best ratings.

I don’t watch American football. I di watch rugby though, and „soccer“. I would expect any team I support to engage in time management. That said, a drop goal would have been more exciting

Is that not already a common tactic?

I’ve been to a lot of games that ended with running down the clock. Mostly in college football, which is generally more chaotic than pro. It’s usually done to defend a lead, rather than technically before getting one, just because teams aren’t usually down by 0-2 points in the last minutes.

And going for a field goal over an unsure TD is definitely normal.

Point is, if the practice is already common, it’s not going to change perceptions of the sport.

Point is, if the practice is already common, it’s not going to change perceptions of the sport.

I agree with this. When @DoctorMonarch was describing what happened I was thinking "this is just normal clock management in the NFL, I don't think there's anything to really write home about here". I can agree that it makes the game less exciting to watch to some extent, but for better or for worse it's accepted as standard practice.

I'm not a diehard NFL fan, I've seen a lot of games end with winding down the clock but it's the first time I remember seeing someone intentionally dive in front of the open end-zone to avoid a touchdown.

It’s become pretty common practice but it requires a smart head coach and a disciplined player. There are many examples where the player was told to go down before the end zone but instinct took him in.

Ohhhhhhh. I missed that detail (and didn't watch the game cause no Packers = I sleep). I thought that the issue was with running out the clock and then kicking a field goal, not that someone intentionally avoided scoring to run the clock out more. I agree that's pretty suspect - I would guess that if it becomes common the league will crack down on it.

As someone who watches a lot of cfb and almost no nfl, kneeling to run down the clock before a field goal instead of running the ball for more yards, better position, slow plays, and low fumble odds isn’t very common at all. I want to say it doesn’t even happen except once to stop the clock, and that’s usually a spike. Maybe it’s a difference in the rules and how nfl’s late game clock works.

Overall, game clock management is a huge part of the sport. I’d rather my team run the clock down before attempting a pat-level field goal than go for a td with too much time left ala Georgia in the championship this year. I will admit, that did make for a more exciting ending. Doesn’t mean Stenson Bennett didn’t know he goofed up.

I don't think defection is a meaningful concept in a scenario premised on pure competition where leveraging every (legal) advantage to the hilt is the expected behavior. If KC scores to maximize entertainment value their fans would be furious and Andy Reid's game management would be roasted in the media. Usage of that tactic was already expected, in 2011 (I think) the giants tried to do a similar maneuver but their running back couldn't stop in time and awkwardly fell over into the end zone instead of at the 1.

The only optimal unsportsmanlike tactic that is still stigmatized in football is that lineman are expected to not really try in kneel down situations. Greg Schiano got everybody mad at him a few years back because he coached his player's to go all out even in kneel down scenarios because there was a tiny chance the QB might fumble the snap and they could get it. He is part of the larger trend of College Coaches failing in the NFL because 20 year olds on a scholarship will do whatever you tell them but 30 year old lineman being paid millions don't want to take unnecessary injury risks on the miniscule chance the QB fumbles.

The game was pretty clearly over once the Chiefs got that automatic first down from the defensive holding while the eagles had no time outs.

I'm more surprised that the near historic front 4 of the Eagles were unable to significantly pressure Mahomes, seems pretty odd.

Resident Eagles fan: I'm profoundly NOT salty about that game. It was very much a good Super Bowl, the Eagles proved they are the second best team in the league, and Hurts proved he's a real QB at that level playing Mahomes to a 4th quarter field goal. No one can walk out of this game saying the Eagles were frauds, which concerned me way more than them losing in the Super Bowl.

At the end of the day, the Eagles win if it weren't for that Fumble Recovery TD given up to the Chiefs. The tendency is to focus on the mistakes in the 4th quarter, but any 3 expected points swing from any play is equally culpable.

The thing about the NFL and "defecting" against making it an entertaining game is that the NFL has the power to change the rules. It's likely that the Hurts QB Push is going to be made illegal next year, for example, because it's such a wild cheat code for the Eagles all season. At most you can defect for one season, and if it becomes an issue the collective will act to limit it. It wouldn't be hard for the NFL to institute a penalty for, eg, "Non Competitive Play" where Pacheco would have been required to run into the endzone on that play or something like that.

It's likely that the Hurts QB Push is going to be made illegal next year, for example, because it's such a wild cheat code for the Eagles all season.

CFB pleb here. What’s wrong with the QB push? Is this different from a sneak? Getting rid of that in cfb would seem wild to me. So many 4th and goals would turn into kicks without it.

The Eagles, through a mix of having essentially the pro-bowl offensive line, a QB who squats 600lbs and will do anything to win, and tremendous full team buy-in, call a QB sneak and get 2-3 guys behind Hurts who push him into the line scrum style. Hurts is the ball carrier, but in a very real sense he just curls up and becomes the ball, with 2-3 guys behind and 2-3 guys in front doing the actual moving.

It amounted to a cheat code for a lot of the season to get 1-2 yards automatically. Where that might get banned:

  1. Physical toll, or a public perception of the physical toll. It's actually relatively unlikely to result in injury, it is the big open field hits that do the worst damage, but it looks brutal and the NFL might not like that. QBs who aren't physical specimens might or might not use the NFLPA to bring this up.

  2. Changing strategy. The Eagles had a LOT of boring wins, part of which was that they could run the ball for 3 yards on 1st-3rd downs, and then push on 4th. I think 4 down football makes the game more exciting personally, but I could see teams complaining that it allowed the Eagles to just sit on 7-14 point leads and smother the game rather than play aggressively or give the ball back to the other team.

  3. Aesthetics. Some NFL magnates might not like how it looks. Just flat out think it is ugly, unentertaining, bad for the TV brand.

Its a maul rather than a scrum, probably (maul has a player with the ball being shoved forward by his pack, scrum has the ball at the feet of the players while the packs try to push each other back). I think the current rules for mauls are once forward momentum is arrested you have 5 seconds to make another push or work the ball free or they call the ball dead.

A ruck would be interesting in American Football (player goes to ground, ball behind him and your forwards push over the top, basically), and maybe legal? You can choose to fumble the ball gently behind you while your offensive line push over and you recover the controlled fumble from behind them? You'd have to drop the ball before you went down, unlike in rugby where you can place it behind you, generally.

Changing strategy. The Eagles had a LOT of boring wins, part of which was that they could run the ball for 3 yards on 1st-3rd downs, and then push on 4th. I think 4 down football makes the game more exciting personally, but I could see teams complaining that it allowed the Eagles to just sit on 7-14 point leads and smother the game rather than play aggressively or give the ball back to the other team.

One could argue that this is just because 4 downs make football boring...

No one can walk out of this game saying the Eagles were frauds, which concerned me way more than them losing in the Super Bowl.

Going a step further, I watched this game through the eyes of a Bills fan and texted friends that the silver lining is that this Eagles team would have absolutely annihilated the Bills if they'd made it there.

It's likely that the Hurts QB Push is going to be made illegal next year, for example, because it's such a wild cheat code for the Eagles all season.

This, on the other hand, Bills fans watch and say, "why the fuck are we not doing that with our giant quarterback?".

It wouldn't be hard for the NFL to institute a penalty for, eg, "Non Competitive Play" where Pacheco would have been required to run into the endzone on that play or something like that.

You could potentially come up with a ruleset that would stop the clock when a player gave himself up. You'd have to tune it to situation to avoid it being used for advantageous clock-stopping, but that seems potentially feasible. This wouldn't be entirely novel, we already have the opposite of it at the boundary - if an offensive player goes out of bounds backwards, the clock doesn't stop, you have to be advancing the ball to get the clock stoppage.

I don't think this is likely to be considered though, the only commentary I ever see on a play like the Pacheco play is everyone in the room agreeing that it's a smart play. It doesn't feel like an unfair exploit, it's just less exciting than the alternative.

You could potentially come up with a ruleset that would stop the clock when a player gave himself up. You'd have to tune it to situation to avoid it being used for advantageous clock-stopping, but that seems potentially feasible. This wouldn't be entirely novel, we already have the opposite of it at the boundary - if an offensive player goes out of bounds backwards, the clock doesn't stop, you have to be advancing the ball to get the clock stoppage.

In all sports, I'm in favor of more aggressive and crazy rules to eliminate situations where the game becomes completely different during the last 2-5 minutes. For example, I think in Basketball during the last 4-5 minutes the rule should be that every penalty committed by the losing team drops 25 seconds off the clock. Because I hate watching the Hack-a-thons at the end of playoff games, I'd rather just watch Basketball.

I don't know how you make penalties sufficient to prevent time wasting plays at the end of an nfl game, but there's got to be a way.

The Elam Ending is just an objectively better way to end basketball games than the current rules. There's nothing worse than watching refs stare at a replay screen in between marches to the free throw line.

At one point the Arena League had a rule where the clock would stop in the last minute if the ball didn't cross the line of scrimmage, to eliminate end game kneel downs.

"For most of the league's history, any play that did not advance the ball across the line of scrimmage also stopped the clock; this prevented teams from kneeling to run out the clock. (This rule was repealed in 2018.) It also rewards defensive play, as a tackle for loss automatically stops the clock."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-minute_warning

Obviously wouldn't have affected the play last night as the runner was past the line of scrimmage (but I guess would have affected Mahomes subsequent kneel downs).

Yeah, that at least forces a QB sneak and creates a non-trivial turnover risk. I can't really think of any serious downside to that rule, there isn't an obvious exploit that could be done with it (intentionally stopping the clock that way is no different than spiking it).

I don't think the push from behind will get banned until someone gets injured doing it. Just seems too easy for someone to get their leg tangled up and pushed forward the wrong way. Also it basically forces the defense to try to leap the pile. The whole thing adds a lot of injury risks and the NFL is trying to reduce that.

I don't think leaping the pile is the way to stop that play.

Chris Jones did that last night, had Hurt behind the line of scrimmage, then got pushed over the first down.

You don't have any power once you've left your feet.

I think you need to meet force with force, I would line your two biggest defensive tackle over the ball, then your next two biggest tackles behind them to push on their back. And try to get your 4 biggest guys trying to push the center back into Hurts' lap. (I would put an Offensive Lineman out there if I thought they were 1 of my top 4 force generators)

Maybe put 2 more guys behind them, but at some point you have to guard against them pitching the ball wide.

To beat it you need similar coordination, talent, and full team buy in. It wasn't just about being big and strong, the whole Eagles team really bought into it. Kelce and Hurts were the offensive team leaders, and they were always putting it all out there on every sneak.

Otoh, letting Pacheco (or whoever the RB was) waltz into the EZ unmolested is also a non competitive play done solely for preserving time. So what’s good for the goose is good for the gander. I like the clock management — it goes ti strategy even if it saps some drama.

I do dislike the Hurts play. There was one or two plays where Hurts was stuffed, and then pushed forward. If while stationery Hurts fumbled, the refs would undoubtedly say forward progress stopped. Yet they will give Hurts the additional yard if pushed from behind after being stuffed.

Also, the NFL should simplify that a catch is when you have two feet and possession. This element of time is awfully qualitative.

The most fascinating difference between European Football and NFL play is the difference in approach to rules. FIFA approaches all rules as vague visual guidelines, the ball is out of bounds when you can see it is out of bounds so they throw it in and keep playing, a foul is when he, ya know, fouls the other guy, the clock just kinda runs for 90 minutes and they throw on a little extra at the end. The NFL approaches rules with Talmudic discernment. What really constitutes a catch? The clock stops at the precise moment when a pass is incomplete or a player goes out of bounds, we will take a 45 second timeout to determine the incorrect presence or absence of 2 seconds from gameplay. How many pass-interference calls can occur between Angels playing a game on the head of a pin?

Also, the NFL should simplify that a catch is when you have two feet and possession.

In my dream world, the rule would basically amount to, "would everyone agree that it was a catch in a backyard football game?". This would be a much more liberal interpretation of whether a ball is fully possessed - I think a player can legitimately possess the ball even if it shifts a quarter inch in his hands as he gathers it.

Apparently they can.

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