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What does the anti-war side in the US want in the Iran conflict? I'm woefully ignorant on this point of view, so I'm wondering if I can get some steelmans here.
The special military operation has not necessarily turned in the US's favor. And I understand why a majority of people were against getting into this absolute mess in the first place. But now that this mess has happened, it doesn't seem so easy to just pack up and go home. Assuming that the US passed a war powers vote, or otherwise just decided just to drop everything and go home, what next? It's a total capitulation, and to me it seems braindead obvious that Iran isn't going to stop harassing and extorting nearby shipping. I mean, what have they got to lose, meanwhile the more they extort the more money they get. So it seems like the only way that the shipment of oil can return to a normal state is if Iran is backed into a corner and is forced to stop what they are doing.
So I don't really understand the point of view of the anti-war side, such as the Democrat establishment
If their vote actually succeeded wouldn't this be pretty much the worst possible outcome? Iran commits piracy and extortion and the rest of the word twiddles their thumbs and just lets Iran do it? I can see a few hypotheses, but none of them seem to be a principled anti-war stance:
I'm sure I'm missing something here. What are the strongest ideas that make the anti-war side's case in terms of what should be done about the situation?
The US can pack up and go home if they offer Iran genuine compensation. We can take off sanctions, pay back the damage we caused, give them loans, open up our markets to their saffron and other products, allow a certain number of scholarships for their students… there are hundreds of creative solutions we can devise that will convince them to open up the strait. The problem is, per Joe Kent, the Israelis needs to be “reigned in”. Right now, America can’t actually be trusted, because of the free reign that Israel has over Trump. So the compensation we provide has to involve genuine “costly signals” of our good faith. So the deal could include reducing the extent of our relationship with Israel, signing a real treaty with Iran, etc. Is any of this likely under Trump? No, I don’t think it’s likely at all, because of his pride. But getting the strait opened isn’t some Herculean task.
They are obtaining compensation and deterrence against a country that wants to destroy their civilization, kill all of their leaders, kill all their negotiators, kill all of their scientists, and thinks it’s okay to kill 100 students and then pretend it was Iran that did it. They are in a fight against a force that represents, like, a Disney villian rendition of pure evil as personified by Trump. At this point he is like the personification of greed, corruption, and the shadowy underworld (Epstein). And most of the world sees this, which is why they aren’t helping America but actually doing what they can to obstruct their efforts (closing down airspace etc)
Or we could nuke them. It is cheaper. I much prefer Iran to have 2 choices - submission or destruction and let them choose. Closing of the strait means Iran has to be broken to a state where they are incapable and not unwilling to do that.
I do not think nuking them will be cheaper than compensating them.
Wiping out Tehran will not significantly reduce Iranian capabilities to attack ships to in the strait. Rural Afghanistan could interdict passage on the strait if they had the coasts. So you would need to make a few hundred kilometers of coastline uninhabitable up to a few dozen kilometers inland. That does not sound cheap even in direct costs.
And the long term consequences would make W's adventures look like a walk in the park. Consider Denmark. As far as I know, they do not have nukes not because nukes are beyond their reach (their GDP is larger than Iran's), but because for them nukes would be a solution looking for a problem, so far. In a world where Trump has just glassed Iran, they would feel that they would get the same choice really soon. Countries are very willing to spend more than ten percent of their GDP on their own Trident program if they feel that the alternative is their capital getting nuked by Trump.
North Korea has some kinds of nukes and is the world's rank #139 by GDP. Within a decade, every country from Albania to Zambia might start nuclear tests. Or they form defensive pacts with saner countries against US attacks. Probably North Korea could make a killing just by selling their tech.
Yes it will. You can fly drones 24/7 over the areas that shoot anything that breaths and moves.
The nuking was in response to the equally absurd suggestion to bribe them. It is a stupid war, but once started Iran has to be broken. Personally I will start with attacking their oil wells. Once they start burning they will change their tune fast.
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You sure could nuke them. In fact, as a non-Iranian, I wouldn't mind seeing this. It is a very flashy way to admit (an unnecessary) conventional defeat and speed up nuclear proliferation and the collapse of your world-system.
The problem is that Trump, for all his faults, doesn't really want to nuke anyone. And even if he could credibly threaten to nuke – the current Iranian leader had barely survived an attack that had wiped out his family. He's well aware the US and Israel have the means to kill with impunity. Do you seriously think more naked intimidation will work? Do you have no theory of mind for men?
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Would you say the Russians were foolish to not start nuking the Ukrainians after they failed to achieve total victory in the first month?
Russia's stated goal is to conquer Ukraine, and nuking them would kind of be a detriment to that. The US is no worse off if the entire Iran is a uninhabitable radioactive wasteland and 100 million iranians are dead. But it's certainly troublesome for Russia if all the Ukrainians are dead.
Well, Putin could have nuked Kiev and announced that he would continue to nuke one city every 24 hours until unconditional surrender. The destruction might not have been so different from a few years of conventional warfare. He did not do so because otherwise every one of his neighbors would have started nuclear programs asap, and because it seems entirely possible that the Ukrainian army would have been willing to fight him in the ruins of their cities.
Likewise, for the US, the Iran problem would be over. Instead they would have the problem that every other country in the world (excepting Israel, perhaps) would consider them genocidal maniacs on a scale dwarfing Hitler, Stalin and Mao together. Every non-nuclear country would either try to get nukes or enter defensive alliances with saner countries.
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I think it's "reined it" correctly.
I think "reigned in" might have reached status of being a correct version of the phrase due to popular use, with an invented-etymological explanation being that it's like a king ordering someone to pull back. It's like how "could" now means the same thing as "couldn't" when part of the phrase "could care less," due to how people have been confusing the terms (or rather, it seems that people have made up the explanation that "could care less" is a reference to the fact that they care so little that it's less than anyone or anything - they "could care less [than some arbitrary X, and they do indeed do what they could]"). Or like how "literally" now means "emphatically" or "severely" in some contexts.
"'Good' could mean 'bad' actually," said Chad with a smirk, as he pulled a Coors from the cooler and cracked it open.
"Prescriptivists are too rigid in their etymology."
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Point taken, but the difference is that as opposed to 'could care less' and 'literally' the phrase 'to reign in' makes no grammatical sense.
On a related note, the case of lose vs loose is similar.
Anon, I...
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Edward the VIII abdicated to reign in his own family instead.
I like a grammatical challenge.
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That is correct. "Reined in" as one would control a horse.
I reign over my horse with its reins.
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Yes, which is the same reason why people usually mean 'free rein' when they speak of 'free reign'.
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Best to just go with "rained in".
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Joe Kent is listening to Candace Owens segments about how Charlie Kirk was murdered by Israel and Macron’s wife is a man.
Kirk was killed with an explosive, not a bullet, and the place where it was made was blown up within weeks, killing the witnesses who made it.
This is a strange reply to me so I politely assume you’re making some kind of joke or reference I’m not familiar with. But on the chance you’re not I want to say that this is not true.
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Correct me if I'm wrong but weren't they killing tens of thousands of their own civilians a couple months ago due to civil unrest? Epstein obsession is also kinda hysterical. I've got no problem with Epstein going to prison but he was a elite whoremonger he wasn't sacrificing people to Satan.
I'm reluctant to keep accepting this claim at face value. Not that I would bet against it, were it put up on Polymarket with a resolver that seemed authoritative enough, but there are at least two complications:
(1) the possibility that it is an outright lie or exaggeration, because the claims are ultimately sourced to bodies who have no particular commitment to speaking the truth to the general public (US or Israeli intelligence? Iranian opposition?)
(2) the possibility that it is technically true but missing some nuance that would significantly change the interpretation. During the height of the uprising being suppressed, I saw some videos circulating (of course themselves of questionable provenance) that purported to depict opposition-aligned fire teams using automatic weapons at least somewhat competently. If the reality of the uprising earlier this year is that the US and Israel had prepared and equipped a mass armed uprising, similar perhaps to the 2014 Donbass rebellion, which was soundly defeated because the government response was more competent than anticipated, does "killed tens of thousands of their own [citizens]" still have the same ring?
We don't normally talk about Ukraine in terms of "killed thousands of their own civilians" in that context (though, naturally, the Russians do). If the US had a Chinese-sponsored uprising that involved tens of thousands of people attempting to storm government buildings and engage in shootouts with authorities, would it being suppressed with a significant number of those involved winding up dead excuse the subsequent casualties of a reckless Chinese bombing campaign?
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