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PaperclipPerfector  17hr ago (text post)   705 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for May 10, 2026

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Why do people care so much about the hantavirus outbreak? The ship is still all over the news and social media. The WHO director-general went to the ship personally, which further indicates that this is a really important matter. It is constantly being compared to covid. Officials keep telling people to calm down, but the way this is covered, the warnings have the opposite effect. The public response seems frantic and only serves to create more uncertainty.

And yet, it just doesn't seem that serious. Sure it can be deadly if you are infected. But from what I understand, Hantavirus mostly spreads to humans through ingestion or inhalation of fluids from rodents. There seems to be no evidence that human to human infection is something the virus is really capable of, and even if this is a strain that mutated to do that, it also doesn't spread through the air.

The most likely scenario in my mind is that hygiene issues on the ship led to a rodent infestation which infected the passengers, and that there is basically no chance that this spreads to the rest of society. It seems about as serious as a hotel giving its residents food poisoning. Terrible for those involved, but irrelevant to the broader world.

But the constant coverage makes me wonder if I am missing something important. Or is this really just a case of the media selling news by appealing to pandemic trauma?

I'd chalk it down to post-COVID hypersensitivity. It's not like those years have faded from popular memory or discourse, and another scary-sounding viral outbreak can be reasonably expected to get many people going.

I'm not worrying about it. Less because I've done the kind of review that @Throwaway05 might have done (I know very little about HV beyond the high mortality rate and proven H2H and zoonotic transmission), and more because I'm tired boss.

Living through one global pandemic and then the overzealous measures around it was enough for me. Even if there's a new outbreak, until it gets much, much worse than Covid ever did, I'll still have to come into work. Perks of being an essential worker.

If we've got neo-Ebola-plus-plus, then I might seriously consider taking a career break and sitting indoors. Like, >2% CFRs for my reference class is my standard for "oh dear", and if it crosses 10%, I'm handing in my badge and going to the Winchester to wait for it blow over.

Otherwise, I'll start caring when we're talking >10k people infected, in multiple countries, in the span of a month or two. Caring isn't the same as doing anything in particular, that's just my personal threshold for sitting up and taking proper notice.

From my understanding (which is not based off of exhaustive review) the outbreak is effectively over (come laugh at me later if it is not).

People are sensitive because of the great trauma which....sure.

I can't imagine how much of a freakout the 2014 Ebola outbreak would have caused these days.

The Coming Plague, well before 2014 (early 90s?) certainly made it sound feasible. That was an interesting book. The girl I was seeing at the time (then yet-to-be-a-med-student, now a fairly reputable doctor) used to go on and on about it. I think pandemics or their possibility are what got her into medicine, though apparently she's not now an epidemiologist. Edit: Nevermind

I know panican is kinda a joke term, but it does describe real people, and they're very overrepresented in the media.

Even the NYT is telling people not to worry unless they were aboard the Hondius, flew with someone who was aboard the Hondius, or live among rodents.

This is the same stuff people were saying about Covid well into March 2020

That only reinforces my point - that people don't much care about this.

or live among rodents

Bay Area LessWrongians most affected.

Stop, you're making me want another cat.

Media looking for something to sell is absolutely part of it, the bigger part is a poor information environment -

  1. Hantavirus is very bad.
  2. Yes H2H transmission appears present.
  3. No this is not actually novel for Hantavirus.
  4. Other aspects of the disease makes it a poor pandemic agent.

On Meddit everyone seems aware of all the pieces and therefore concern is low, however elsewhere (including here) people seem to be missing or misunderstanding one or more of these pieces.

That can easily breed fear. For instance some people in gen pop think this is a possible pandemic. No not really. Some people here think this could plausibly be a bioweapon no not really.

But if you are concerned about either of those things panic and discussion seem reasonable enough.

On Meddit everyone seems aware of all the pieces

FWIW, that has been the approach of the Finnish media. "This is very unusual and a deadly outbreak but there is no reason for concern as human to human transmission is very inefficient and thus risk of any sort of pandemic is very low".

Basically the same as if there was an Ebola outbreak on a cruise ship. That'd be newsworthy and reason for cautioning travelers who may have interacted with people from that ship but otherwise just "stuff happens abroad, evening news as usual".

There seems to be no evidence that human to human infection is something the virus is really capable of, and even if this is a strain that mutated to do that, it also doesn't spread through the air.

Scientists are pretty sure the Andes strain is capable of human to human transmission. It's not particularly transmissible though since it requires either transfer of bodily fluids or exposure to respiratory droplets. A cruise ship with lots of people in close, prolonged contact is probably the worst case for transmission which would explain the mini cluster of cases.

Last I had heard, they thought the patient zero was a Dutch birdwatcher who visited a rodent-infested landfill with his wife.

This probably won't blow up into a global pandemic, but it's novel, scary (50% fatality rate), and like you said, people still have COVID trauma. Maybe the coverage is a bit overblown but I don't think it has been too egregious. Eg. Some of the cruise ship passengers exposed hopped on airplanes immediately after disembarking, which is another great enclosed space for human to human transmission... It's possible we might see cases pop up elsewhere if any of those passengers were infectious at the time.

Are you American? I've personally seen very little about it. Iran seems to largely be sucking the air out of the room, news-wise.

Why do people care so much about the hantavirus outbreak?

They do?

I’ve seen more denials here on The Motte than I have seen any actual caring about the outbreak in the news or other forums. Obviously an outbreak of such virus on a cruise ship is newsworthy so there have been a few articles in local papers about it and one about two locals who were exposed on an airplane but that’s it. No alarmism whatsoever because hantaviruses just don’t transmit between humans well (or at all depending on the specific virus).

I think there is more demand for alarmism (that can then be used to point how ”the establishment” is overreacting) here on The Motte than there is any actual alarmism in the news or from officials.

Our feeds must be very different. I have seen zero discussion about the virus on The Motte, but stories keep popping up in my news feed while I have seen various subreddits bringg it up over the last few days, including today. And of course, the WHO currently has multiple articles about the virus on their front page. This seems like a lot, but it could of course just be the algorithms screwing with me.

Our feeds must be very different.

Probably, as I have zero interest in American media or general purpose forums, what with living in Finland and all that. It is possible that the American media is sensationalist but The Motte is an international forum so a generic "why do people care" is going to be taken as "why do people everywhere (in the west at least) care" to which the answer is "actually they mostly don't seem to care".

This is the latest news here about the virus (article is in Finnish and text copy pasted here in case paywall goes up - you'll need to use google translate or something). It seems to have a very "This is very interesting but it doesn't have any effect on us" sort of approach to me.

Top story on the BBC today, as well. I also don't know why. But I stopped trying to fathom the news cycle years ago.

I also don't know why.

Imagine there was an Ebola outbreak on a cruise ship. That would obviously also be story even though there is no risk of global pandemic or spread in western countries.

A deadly virus (in the very literal sense) outbreak in such situation is always newsworthy even though there is little risk of it spreading further.

It's not just you. It's the top story on APnews this morning. It's been one of the top stories on there for the past week.

And one of the stories this morning is alarmism about the CDC not getting involved, which is a nice 2-for-1 of virus and Trump alarmism.

If it really is just alarmism, it just seems so irresponsible to me. I understand that the incentive of a capitalist society is to profit at any cost. But I also believe that journalists have a duty to accurately inform the population and not poke at their anxieties for no good reason. If they go too far into sensationalism and making baseless claim, they lose their purpose and reason for existing. The value they provide to society will degrade until it is completely gone.

You're not wrong, but I will admit slight surprise that anyone is only now, in this particular news cycle, realizing this. I've had nearly a verbatim thought for, oh, twenty years or so now.

My take matches yours, except I'm not really curious about it anymore. The only risk would be if this virus had been modified to spread easily by aerosol. Widespread AI usage makes this somewhat more likely to happen in the coming years and decades. Some cunt with a serious grudge against society, or simply sociopathic curiosity, could weaponize a deadly virus such as this hantavirus and make it way more contagious. Or some jackasses in a Wuhan-esque lab could be tinkering with GoF with a supposed view to creating vaccines - or simply bio weapons - and humans being humans they'll be lax with security at some point and leak it.

But so far I see no reason to expect that's what's happened this time. I would lean towards the media selling news explanation.

Bird flu has been close to causing a human pandemic for years already. One unlucky mutation is all it will take. Yet the media attention has been small all along. Go figure.

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