I think I found this more interesting than the original biography review by Scott. There is a lot of distilled wisdom in these posts.
However, there is one area that always rubs me the wrong way. It is smart people who don't know dumb people talking about intelligence.
Where I am now in life I interact almost exclusively with smart people. Not just high IQ wiz kids with no experience. But people that have both the raw brain power, and the life experience to be sharp and wicked smaht. I'm in a rich neighborhood, and wealth has a noticeable correlation with IQ. I currently work for an institution that employs academics who must explain their work to the media (so they can't just sit in an ivory tower and write illegible crap). I use to work at a tech company that for quite a few years basically gave people an IQ test before they could join, and they were willing to fire people who didn't work out (the selection effects weren't perfect but they were certainly noticeable). My college friends were mostly from an "honors" section that got scholarships and accolades for academic achievements.
This was not always the case.
I went to highschool in a nice-ish area. The highschool was pretty decent for where I lived, but it still had noticeable rates of teenage pregnancy, drunk driving fatalities, minor gang fights (no more than temporary hospitalizations), about a fifth of the school below the poverty line, and a racial mix that actually came pretty close to matching America's general racial mix.
This highschool had dumb-dumbs. Probably something close to an average amount of dumb-dumbs. But at the time it was painful how many of them there were. I am smart for the general population, but a bit of a dumb-dumb when I get into smart people circles. 95th percentile on SATs. 1 in 20 seems only ok, but in a random class of ~30 kids I was likely to be the smartest or 2nd smartest. And its not the academic under performance that ever bothered me. I wasn't in any position to judge, I did well on standardized tests, but I was solidly a B student at best. Most of the material seemed dumb and stupid. We were all often doing equally bad at it. It was the everything else that bothered me about interacting with chronically stupid people.
I often heard people brag growing up that they were "street smart" while some academic achiever was "book-smart". This gave me the false impression that there were two kinds of people out there and there was just a trade off between the two. That was badly wrong. Some people are just dumb. They can fail to learn how to read, and fail at not walking into oncoming traffic, and fail at not picking a fight with a group of kids that will kick their ass. There are people that just seem to make repeatedly bad decisions in all areas of their life. I grew to hate these people, because loving and caring about them was too painful. To watch them make terrible decisions again and again, no matter how you advise them, no matter how much you try its like they seem determined to make their own lives a living hell by refusing to understand the world around them.
Bringing this back around to Elon Musk:
Yes he is smart. He is very smart. If he doesn't seem that smart compared to the people around you, then congratulations you live in a smart person bubble. I live in one too, its great! No one is ever making terrible decisions that might casually endanger me. No one is starting physical fights, because words hurt their brain too much. They know all the latest social norms, and when to violate the silly ones to make a joke. I can have deep conversations with them about nearly any topic, they might not know the details, but if I make it interesting they will pick it up and participate. The people around me know how to manage their money, so they aren't ever begging me for handouts, or trying to nickle and dime me on shared expenses.
The phrase "check your privilege" comes to mind, but the tone that people normally use feels very wrong. Just imagine me saying it in the same way a surfer says "kowabunga dude!" while offering a high five.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Obviously when people say this they mean “compared to the average surgeon / investment banker / senior official at the State Department / STEM academic at a decent university”, not “compared to Bob at the gas station” or even “Bill the police chief”. Musk is clearly into the 95th percentile, if not 98th or 99th percentile. Is he 99.9th percentile like Sergei and Larry, or 99.99th like Bill Gates? Probably not.
No, I've argued with average redditors who were very much convinced the online reasons Elon Musk is a billionaire while they're not billionaires is a combination of luck, inheritance, and willingness to be unethical on Musk's part.
Would you argue that those factors, combined, aren't at least 10x as important re: Musk being a billionaire as his IQ?
Inheritance is a relatively small factor. From Scott's original review,
So he certainly had more inheritance than a kid from the slums, but I'd say he's only about as privileged as the top 50-20% of Americans.
I don't think Musk is particularly more unethical than most people. He's not a shining beacon of morality, but he's not evil either, and most of his biggest moral issues are stuff like calling the diver who rescued kids a pedo, and that sort of unethicalness probably lost him money. He relatively quickly resorts to yelling at employees to put them under pressure to work harder, but I don't consider that super unethical or rare. When I think of someone getting rich from being unusually unethical, I think of stuff like dumping toxic waste in a river knowing it will destroy the environment and cause cancer, but doing it anyway because the fine for just doing it is cheaper than properly disposing of waste.
I can't say for sure how much of a role luck has played for him. But considering he's been a major participant in making 3 companies extremely successful(PayPal, Tesla, SpaceX) when most businesses outright fail, I really doubt luck by itself is the biggest factor. I'd agree with Scott's conclusion that Musk's drive plus his intelligence are the two biggest factors.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
Not disputing it- just genuinely curious why Gates is considered 99.99th percentile? I’ve never read much about him so I’ve only ever heard redditors say that Gates was more of a ruthless businessman than a genius computer scientist
It’s mainly the math 55 thing (widely considered the single toughest undergraduate course in America, maybe the world, which a handful of people pass a year) and that he published something interesting (not ground-shaking or transformative, but interesting and genuinely original) on sorting in undergrad. Something like half of math 55 grads become top physics or math professors at leading institutions. Many very smart people who have met Gates have said he’s one of the smartest if not the smartest person they’ve ever met. So he’s a cut above your usual (still very smart) Silicon Valley tycoon.
I don’t think Gates’ extreme smarts explain his immense business success, of course, that really is in large part down to his ruthlessness. Musk did a business and physics degree at Penn as a transfer student, Zuck went to Harvard but did merely good math classes (two steps down from math 55) and was in the middle of the pack in them. Bezos did very well in engineering at Princeton but wasn’t considered one of the very smartest students (although I think his intelligence is underrated). Gates seems a cut above the rest when it comes to tech tycoons. Ellison is an interesting question since he is apparently very smart, but even so I think it very unlikely he’s on Gates’ level.
Gates is legit smart. I am not sure why this is even debatable even if his politics suck
Yeah people have weird views here about smart people and politics, Einstein was a political moron but was still obviously extraordinarily intelligent.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
He took this course at Harvard. Supposedly the hardest math course in the country.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Math_55
So that means he already got thru the get into Harvard filter (which is probably 99% plus luck/connection) and then filtered into their hardest route.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
I made this exact argument in the other thread and got downvoted and dogpiled. maybe i should just use an alt account or pay someone to make the posts on my behalf . elon is smart, yeah, but is the smartest in the world? probably not. His IQ is probably one of the least interesting things about him.
You got "downvoted and dogpiled" because you made a lot of strong claims with all confidence and little to back it up.
What is with the quoting? That is exactly what happened. it would be a stronger claim to say elon is the smartest person in the world than not, no? to say he is the smartest necessitates a higher burden of proof.
Did anyone say that? I'm genuinely curious. Every discussion I've seen so far is just whether he is hella smart (99.99), very smart (99.9), or just smart (99).
99.9 percentile doesn't make you the smartest in the world. It makes you the smartest out of a 1000 people. 99.99 percentile makes you the smartest out of 10000 people. Which means in the us population of 335m people there are about 33500 smarter than them.
Put a number on it. How smart do you think Elon is, percentile wise. For all I know you are saying the same thing as everyone else, but just not stating your numbers so you are all talking past one another.
The people who say Elon is as smart or smarter than a Field's medalist or a Putnam winner. I argued that the latter is smarter, which does not seem that unreasonable on my part. We're talking the best of the best of a very g-loaded task, that being pure math. Sure , Elon could be as smart, but if i was going to wager, my $ would be on the medalist, based on math being g-loaded , the rarity of skill involved, competition, etc.
From what we know about him, probably 90% confident he is between 140-150.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
Those numbers all feel too small.
I would have phrased it like this:
Yes, and I think many of the people making the comparison live in a bubble with those people. So their idea of smart is so horribly skewed. If the range of your social circle is 98th percentile IQ up through 99.999th, then you are not going to be impressed by Musk even if he is objectively impressive. Any people in the jobs you mentioned probably have a social circle like that. I'd peg my personal social circle as 80th - 99.9th. With a few low outliers with lovely souls.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link