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naraburns  nihil supernum  7mo ago (text post)   28919 thread views

Israel-Gaza Megathread #1

This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.

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Israel announces ‘total’ blockade on Gaza

Israel has announced a “total” blockade of Gaza, including a ban on food and water, after Hamas carried out the biggest attack on the country in decades.

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said on Monday authorities would cut electricity and block the entry of food and fuel as part of “a complete siege” on Hamas-run Gaza.

This seems like there's going to be mountains of deaths, what will the actual effect be?

Probably mountains of deaths, but they won’t be clearly distinguishable from the civilian casualties of the ground invasion.

what will the actual effect be?

I expect it is mostly a "softening up tactic" before a major ground incursion. If Israel actually kept a full blockade for weeks if not months - and we're assuming effectively enforced (a big if) - then it would be committing a textbook definition of a warcrime. That would essentially guarantee it would lose in the court of public opinion. Like it or not, winning the propaganda war is just as important as the real war. Public sympathy would dry up real quick if tens of thousands were to be dying on live TV. Disproportionately matters.

This seems like there's going to be mountains of deaths

Not unless Egypt also blocks the entry of food, which seems unlikely.

IIRC Egypt doesn't allow goods through their entry point into Gaza, only people. All goods must go through Israel's entry points.

Egypt has gone back and forth on that in the past. It is neither in Egypt's interests nor in Israel's interests to have people starving to death in the Gaza Strip.

It won't last. Israel does not want mountains of people dying of thirst on newspaper front pages, it makes them look callous. They will turn the water back on in a few days and the food maybe a few weeks after that, possibly in exchange for hostages. Any gap will be bridged by humanitarian aid coming in through Egypt.

Genius move to cut them off though. Few people will have appreciated that Gaza received water etc from Israel in the first place. Really makes it look like a 'biting the hand that feeds you' type of situation.

The mere fact that there is a blockade doesn't tell anyone that Israel had been giving Gaza anything.

It definitely won't last, but I do wonder what would happen if it did and they went full siege mode. At what point do they start offering up the heads of the Hamas leaders? Do they ever?

Probably eventually, but the optics and footage online would make it impossible. Even total carpet bombing would be preferable from a PR perspective.

If the gap is bridged through Egypt, why not go on indefinitely though? Given that one reason how the attack went so well is probably the intel from the increased movement & employment that Israel had allowed, it does seem reasonable for Israel to just say cut -all- the movement between Gaza & Israel, but let arab countries support Gaza through Egypt if they so wish.

One thing they could do is bisect Gaza in the rural zone so that the region bordering the densely populated parts of Israel is cut off from the Egyptian supply.

Whether the southern part is supplied or not doesn't matter that much.

I'm pretty sure it will just be interpreted as "here's yet more proof that Israel is a colonialist/apartheid state, they don't even allow the Palestinians to control their own basic human needs like food and water!"

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