domain:natesilver.net
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
9m ago
In this edition of pissant goals I'm working towards, I'm taking my first step towards my long term plan of finishing a century ride on my bike. I haven't gone much farther than 20mi in a single ride before, so my plan is over the upcoming months to set goals of first a metric half century, then an imperial half century, then a metric century, then a full century.
This weekend I'm going to attempt a metric half, down at the Jersey shore. This was where I had previously done my eponymous five hour marathon to settle a bet, in the early or late off-season the shore is ideal for self-planned endurance events in that it is A) Empty, B) Pretty, C) mild weather-wise, D) Relevant flair there's a Wawa every so often that is open 24 hours a day I think there's seven on my intended 50km route, creating natural aid stations where I can get a drink or a Snickers or a band-aid rather than packing all that stuff in, E) It's easy to convince my wife to go there with me for a couple days, F) Navigation is easy as the barrier islands are very long and narrow with mostly grid-layouts, so as long as you know where the sun or the water is it's pretty much impossible to get lost, and finally for cycling it is F) flat. Worst case scenario and I crash or injure myself, I call my wife to come get me. Best case scenario, I call her to meet me at the end for our brunch reservation in Cape May.
It's funny, because I know that this is a truly irrelevant distance for anyone who is even a modestly serious cyclist, but it is also a reasonable challenge for me in that I haven't attempted a distance this long before. I'm excited to try something I've never done before, with what I find to be the right degree of planning and preparation, which is to say less than most people would recommend but enough that I think I can get it done safely. If I do ok on 35 miles, I might try to do a 50 mile next month, but after that I'll have to spend the winter working on getting faster. I've yet to really fail on endurance anywhere, but I struggle to keep any tempo over ~60 for very long, which limits my ability to climb and go very fast, and I think I'll need to sustain 18mph to credibly finish a century. Any slower than that and I don't think I'll be able to stay in the saddle long enough to finish. Then I'll target a metric century in early spring, and a full century in late spring, or if that doesn't work out this time next year. Or I might actually seek out a real event for a century ride.
I suppose I'll need a new username if I finish, but SevenHourCentury just doesn't sound right.
WandererintheWilderness
11m ago
I ask again: how do you justify this morally? Some might say that unpleasant circumstances when doing the right thing will give you a material disadvantage is when it is most important (and indeed admirable) to behave ethically.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
20m ago
An 8 hour feeding window is completely standard for IF and may even be superior from a lean mass gains perspective to a 4 hour window.
2rafa
35m ago
Every bubble has its boosters, and at a late stage they often resort to the ultimate and final bull cope:
“They won’t (and indeed can’t) allow it to crash”.
In each generation this has a different name, but in this cycle the most common is probably some variant of ‘the fed put’. Of course, if elected governments and their appointees were powerful enough to stave of a market crash, these things would never happen, given their typical electoral consequences.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
36m ago
Oh it's absolutely effective for calorie restriction without counting too much or overly punishing yourself in social situations ("I don't eat after 8pm" is an easier thing to explain than "I don't eat a long list of foods based on a logic you may or may not agree with").
I just find it amusing that "skip breakfast and avoid snacking late at night" is like grocery-store-checkout women's magazine tier advice, classic weightwatchers stuff. While "I do intermittent fasting on a strict schedule" is optimization bro Huberman-pilled advice.
2rafa
40m ago
it could well be similar to how the dot-com investments worked out. lots of duds and even scams but on average i think the return on investing during that era was good
The overall market (the S&P 500) didn’t reach its dotcom peak again until 2007 and then promptly crashed again, not reaching it again until the 2010s. The Nasdaq didn’t hit its 2000 peak until 2015. Looking at total returns paints a slightly rosier picture but it was still a long time.
Skeletor
40m ago
You appear to think of politics entirely on the basis of whether policies create material problems for you in your life (and, granted, in your daughter's). Don't you have a concept of politics as rooted in moral values unrelated to your own personal fate?
1990's colorblind liberalism is dead and it wasn't the right wingers who killed it. Since we now live in some kind of post-liberal racial spoils hellscape, I'll be voting for my own team, thanks.
wsgy
46m ago
Jew is a slur or the proper terminology depending on how much stank is put on it. So it's one of those things that's a lot easier to parse the meaning of when spoken, less so over text. I'm completely unsurprised young people who primarily communicate via text rather than speech would be uncomfortable with Jew as a term
Jazzhands
48m ago
This is your regular reminder that the current administration is still working to undo the thousands of bans that Youtube did at the Biden administration's behest. I assume the OP means "modern as in the past five minutes."
Bingbong
49m ago
Some of the point about the money with AI is that the current financial engineering means that a lot of money is coming onto existence on paper (especially in these circular 'Company A invests in Company B but Company B then immediately uses that money to buy compute from Company A, valued in accordance with the new benchmark' deals) and not really escaping the loop the same way. This is now, somewhat, obscuring a state of pretty clear stagnation and weakness in the broader economy.
Bingbong
52m ago
Also massive reams of labor is currently probably kinda pointless in the present metagame but kept around for a combination of ego-reasons and since people are sold fantasies about stuff like 'Marketing' and 'Human Resources' which are real phenomenon but likely hugely overallocated to in manhours (and I've worked marketing roles, the sort of insane digital marketing KPI hacking that goes on would make an Engineer vomit).
I don't think that AI will, in the medium-longterm replace these roles insomuch as prompt a reshuffle where a lot of more extraneous roles get rebranded or people just kinda slide around till they find new roles in wishywash nothingness that AI's less capable of servicing.
benmmurphy
54m ago
it could well be similar to how the dot-com investments worked out. lots of duds and even scams but on average i think the return on investing during that era was good and what it ended up producing was good. the problem is all of this is very risky and there is going to be a lot of failed investments in order to have some big payoffs. and of course the big players and everyone who thinks they have a chance is going to try and get the government to step in to subsidise their losses. but that doesn't mean the idea of AI is terrible or that we shouldn't be doing it.
orthoxerox
If you can read this, you're using a custom theme
57m ago
I've always thought the most common form of IF was 8 hours between the first and the last meal. 10am to 8pm is not really IF, but something like 11am to 7pm should qualify.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
1hr ago
While you’re welcome to argue that you think something is obvious, please refrain from consensus-building.
thejdizzler
1hr ago
I have! The problem is calibrating what is an appropriate time box for a task, especially in lab where I'm not sure how long for example, dissections might take.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
1hr ago
The test isn’t for denying wrongthink, but for “caring about anything like this from my own side.” More likely here than on the vast majority of forums. ArjinFerman and professorgerm both gave credible, level-headed examples of how they gave something genuine thought.
And I’m not interpreting mental rewards mechanisms. I’m arguing that we’ve gotten “the bottom falling out” on the object level, but not the meta level. People are rightfully upset about Kirk’s murder without coming to the same conclusions as Skeletor.
Tree
2hr ago
That whole line of argument is illegitimate, and like, so 2020. I’m not sacrificing a single joke for your ideological witchhunts. Hilarity aside, such jokes protect and normalize rape and nazi apologia? Good! I want all opinions protected, and every citizen participating in the political process.
I don’t want to blame the entire state of the world on your line of argument, but it did single-handedly make it more polarized and censorious, and what is even less forgiveable, mirthless.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
2hr ago
It's Computer-Mediated-Communication, which lacks several important features of in-person communication, like tone, body language, and synchronous feedback. Most importantly it is easy to reproduce/leak by malicious actors.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
2hr ago
Yes, in person.
nomenym
2hr ago
This is friends engaging in taboo banter. Saying taboo things is part of the friendship bonding process, because it's a demonstration of trust.
nomenym
2hr ago
The Nazis weren't wrong about everything, but the things they were right about were not uniquely or especially Nazi. That said, an alarmingly large number of people seem to have confused being an inverted Nazi* with being a good person, because Hitler is the secular devil.
*May not correspond to actual historical Nazis.
Ironically, the usage of watermelon by the pro Palestinian crowd is fitting because they seem to be influenced into sympathy for them through a misguided perception of the Muslims being the "brown", non-white party in the conflict, despite them being more of less ethnically identical to most Jews.
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