domain:forecasting.substack.com
Iconochasm
2. Bootstrap the rest of the fucking omnipotence.
20hr ago
I like to think I might do that, but it's much more likely that I would autistically lock in and just deliver the right answer according to the rules of the game.
ControlsFreak
20hr ago
there is no market clearing price for first world citizens doing a variety of shitty jobs- you can reallocate the limited supply by offering more money, but you cannot get them fully staffed.
This is, frankly, absurd. It must misunderstand both components, supply and demand. How is this supposed to work? Does demand for such workers not slope downward? (I would think that as the price of such labor increases, the quantity demanded would go down, as the price of the ultimate products would have to go up, reducing the consumer demand, in turn.) Does supply for such workers not slope upward? How would this work? Are you somehow going to entice fewer workers to take those jobs by offering $X+1 instead of $X?
DiscourseMagnus
20hr ago
or telling your kids that Santa Claus is real is child abuse
"Child abuse" is poorly defined, but lying to your children is definitely bad, and I don't think this is nearly the trivial matter that people usually think of it as.
hydroacetylene
20hr ago
I'm not going to write paens to Hassan's treatment of his dog. But its littermates are probably underfed in a junkyard.
hydroacetylene
21hr ago
Dogs attacking their owner is not an unusual story. Now, you, motteizean, can find a lower-paid and much easier job working from home. Fake Amazon reviews or something. This dog does not have that option. I'm not crying for it; a personal protection dog(which is probably what that cross was made for) is probably a worse fate than that. But it is just factually untrue that it could have left and found a different gig.
Eupraxia
Of all words spoken, all things read / most true was that which went unsaid
21hr ago
It is a perfectly reasonable observation to make that the features the Japanese (really, almost everyone) generally regard as "cute" have little in common with darker-skinned phenotypes. Darker-skinned populations have Noticed this for a long time, alongside related phenomena concerning group status, and take quite major offense to it. Despite the promise of equality given by the dismantling of explicitly discriminatory systems, these humiliating phenomena remain. Hence, it is not enough to be merely not-racist; one must be actively anti-racist.
hydroacetylene
21hr ago
I would assume based on that cross it was backyard bred and would have been sold to someone to use for protection, which likely entails worse treatment than Hassan is giving.
I wouldn't, personally, use a dog as a living prop. But I don't think it's beyond the pale.
ulyssessword
21hr ago
I invite you to see the footage for yourself.
Link?
hydroacetylene
21hr ago
Guys get mad at eachother, fight it out, all is well (unless someone suffers a horrible permanent injury, which did happen).
Still happens, a lot. It's just a lower-class marker.
hydroacetylene
21hr ago
I mean, it clearly just means 'nobody with official sanction is allowed to countersignal LGBT'. That is what it means in practice.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
21hr ago
I can imagine a 24 hour fitness type situation is not great for this but all of the smaller gyms I went to that focused on some sport (i.e. wl or pl) obviously had a decent amount of community in them.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
21hr ago
I’m not convinced it needs to be literal fighting. As a species, we’re rapidly retreating from the real world into very different cyber-simulacra of various aspects of our former life. We probably do at least half of our human contact through screens. We play games rather than going outside for real activities. And I think the simulacra, while they give the a bit more of happy brain chemicals as the real thing, they’re not the same. An online friend is not a real friend. An online game is not the same as playing outdoors. Watching videos of places is not the same as visiting those places.
I think a lot of this stuff ends up being a hyperstimulous. They’re releasing more of those happy brain chemicals than the real life version because they’ve removed most of the slower more boring but actually meaningful bits of those things. Your online friends are always there, just whip out the phone and scroll. And they don’t make demands like an offline friend might, nor do they get in bad moods or get mad at you. An offline walk is mostly quiet maybe interesting flowers or birds or a deer or something. Walk around in a video game and you’ll have constant adventures. So the online world wins, and people don’t do as much offline.
I think just about any real world experience that comes along will help. The kids who seem the most mentally stable are athletes who are spending lots of time playing a sport with their actual body, seeing the gradual improvement as they practice and work out, growing into social relationships as they make real world friends on their team and gain tge confidence to talk to people outside of that group. Sports of any type but especially team sports is really good for kids and especially boys.
ulyssessword
21hr ago
I was going to comment the same thing.
There's a bit of a blurry line if a licensed therapist also offers unregulated life coaching services (as should be their right, but I don't know if professional licensing boards share my opinion), but at minimum they should have a different line item on their bills if they're flipflopping between professional and unconstrained services.
That categorization doesn't just affect the new law. It also affects insurance eligibility, protections on patient confidentiality, answers on various government forms, etc. ("Have you ever been treated by a medical practitioner for a mental health problem?" "No, but I did have a crisis of faith and talked to a priest over the course of several months. It's completely different.")
ThomasdelVasto
Κύριε, ποίησόν με ὄργανον τῆς ἀγάπης σου
21hr ago
Very much depends on the gym, your schedule, and person. Literally orders of magnitude worse for social connection than these other options I mentioned. I have lifted for years and have met, as in exchanged names with, 0 people.
Throwaway05
21hr ago
Hospitals are also extremely obsessed with not getting sued and with not accidentally doing something against policy - they'll eat the cost on a long stay instead of sending someone home to an unsafe discharge.
You'll see things like someone needing rehab, not being able to get placement because of whatever (like being illegal) and then just chilling in the hospital instead.
If someone lives up steps for instance they may not be able to go home.
07mk
21hr ago
The response to a dog yelping in pain is not to yell at it, especially if the pain was not anticipated to occur.
Agreed. Presuming that my 50%+ guess is incorrect and it is either a vibration collar or just a regular collar, his response to what appears to be a moment of distress by his dog is still absolutely horrid behavior. However, I wouldn't condemn him for just one clip of him losing his cool like that; even someone with stupid and vile opinions who has actively harmed US society like him deserves grace for one momentary lapse of that sort. Given how he likely has hundreds (thousands?) of hours of video of him and his dog, finding a single instance of something like this shouldn't be enough to condemn him as a piece of shit.
a shock collar is horrible, but so is what Hasan is claiming he actually did in the moment, and no one seems willing to comment on the behavior of the latter just because that type of abusive behavior is less bad than the shock collar.
I think you're mistaken. No one seems willing to comment on the behavior of the latter because the people who want to remain skeptical given the lack of damning evidence are mostly people who are motivated not to condemn Hasan for anything in the first place, no matter what he does; he could film himself ordering a shock collar from Amazon, unwrapping it, putting it on his dog, and zapping it indiscriminately, and a significant number of these people would figure out why the dog deserved it. And the people who would condemn him for the lesser type of abusive behavior are mostly people who are motivated to jump to conclusions to condemn Hasan with the flimsiest of evidence, so they've already decided that he's guilty of shocking his dog. The exceptions in either group are likely vanishingly small.
ethnic doesn't need to be foreign and foreign doesn't need to be illegals
the violence/crime stats for other demographics is so low compared to blacks, near the entire effect you're pointing out is explained by % black population down to the zipcode level
this outlier effect supplants any other effect because you've chosen a "top five" approach, but this argument doesn't work against the point of the post
places with high numbers of illegals are dirty, overcrowded, dysfunctional, and foreign, in addition to them having higher crime and being generally low-trust
that one "native" group also has this effect isn't mutually exclusive to illegals; the fact that Jackson, Mississippi is a dirty, dysfunctional, violent place while having few foreigners doesn't mean illegals don't have a similar effect on the places they concentrate which keeps regular functional Americans out
which reinforces the point I'm making; these cities being run poorly and protecting illegals (and black criminals) buttresses the political machines there because it keeps regular functional Americans out, even willing to commute multiple hours to live outside of these places
(Miami, San Jose, New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco)
On the other hand it sure doesn't look to me like foreigners turn cities into ethnic spoils engines
wait, are you implying cities like NYC and LA don't have ethnic spoils systems now or in the past (some of the ethnics being foreigners)?
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
21hr ago
tl;dr: Anti-ICE protestors look far more reprehensible and contemptible than the officers do.
I agree with this, particularly the ones in those videos. I just disagree that "better than the worst protestors" is the standard we should be aiming for.
The state of California from 1960 to now proves the theory. The coalition is high-low, government workers, gov bureaucrats and other ideologues against the middle. Whatever "in-group preferences" random illegals have towards other random illegals isn't the question, it's whether or not they form coalitions against the White middle which they do routinely across the US and inter coalition conflict is handled through ethnic spoils. Latinos were willing to be used by white progressive against the White middle and what they demanded was ethnic control and spoils and that's what they got.
That part might be true but this isn't actually helping the electoral chances of Democrats or blacks as a whole. If anything, emigration to red states because of the disorder weakens their voting power and the most famous and wealthy liberal cities being basket cases just undermines the very idea of government competence.
California is effectively a one-party state. California in 1960 was a firmly middle-class Republican stronghold. Emigration out of California to red states is mostly red tribe, further cementing control of the state for Democrats.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
21hr ago
I mean sure, but eventually you get the escalation you wanted and are now being blamed for a dead federal agent or worse member of the military. The ratchet cannot go on forever.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
21hr ago
and it is every red-blooded Americans moral duty to resist them.
Below is an aside to @Gillitrut 's comments. It looks like he/she/they (idk pronouns) have decided to flame out in this thread.
Regardless of what "it" is, a blanket statement asserting the "moral duty" to react in any way to whatever "it" is ... is something close to the antithesis of the Motte, I think. People get to voice whatever strongly held beliefs the have here without censure, which is a good thing. The requirement for that is to then explain why they have such a strongly held belief, or, perhaps, their assumed likely outcome should people not share their strongly held belief.
Stopping after asserting "it's a moral duty!" is one of the worst things a person can do to discourse or conversation. You're inviting people to disagree with just so you can then perform all of the complex dance steps of moral outrage, probably, mostly, in order to support your own feelings of moral superiority.
I am the Steven Segal of Traditional Catholicism a practicing Catholic and so a lot of my beliefs boil down to "because God said so." But even in those cases (check out some of my posts on porn from earlier today - and smash that like button) I try to, at the least, outline the doctrinal teachings / cathechesim standard response on why and how "God said so." I don't smash and run, I don't think anyone out to either .... for the reasons stated above :-).
Iconochasm
2. Bootstrap the rest of the fucking omnipotence.
21hr ago
I think the "chaotic" you slipped in with no justification there is doing basically all the work in holding up your position.
They're projecting themselves as competent, efficient, confident, inevitable, and actually having a great time doing it.
All of those things seem pretty fine for law enforcement.
Throwaway05
21hr ago
My biggest fear is that people will notice this. It will become a Thing...and more will do it.
It may be better that he wasn't found.
I have very nice neighbors who trained or tried to train a dog to stop barking inside with one. I live in a very normy, probably even slightly upper middle class, burb.
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