domain:streamable.com
I would guess a lot of people predicted it. They were two big egos, which tend to not get along super well.
Edit: Here's my take from a few months ago. I over-indexed on Hanania's arguments and should have stuck with my gut that two egos that large couldn't get along for more than a few months. I was otherwise correct that Doge wouldn't be able to cut much as a % of government spending, and that it wouldn't be able to touch the bloated elder care subsidies the US has.
WhiningCoil
1d ago
Man... sometimes it feels like I hit bitcoin at just the right time. It was worth enough to make me take it seriously, it was after Mt Gox so lessons from that were in the zeitgeist, and I was zealous enough to never sell and keep DCAing for almost 10 years. Some people have done better buying it earlier and selling the tops and buying the bottoms. Some people have done a lot worse panic selling the bottoms. All in all I can't complain.
urquan
Blessings crown the head of the righteous, but violence overwhelms the mouth of the wicked.
1d ago
Someone here predicted that the Elon-Trump alliance would fracture. Was it 2rafa?
VoxelVexillologist
Multidimensional Radical Centrist
1d ago
I'm pretty sure that's a tankie slogan from those that see things like the concept of private property as too far right. Maybe also an element of out group/far group dynamics, or referencing Stalinist and Maoist purges of the inteligencia and such. I don't have any friends that attend such things (that I know of).
WhiningCoil
1d ago
I want so badly to believe in Intel, but it just keeps getting worse. Sorry you got burned.
I'm still happy as a clam with my 5800X3D and an RTX 4070S to go with it. But I'm throwing $50 a month into a "New Computer" fund whenever I decide it's finally time to upgrade. Who knows when that'll be. Since switching to Linux Mint things generally seem much snappier. I know it boots it like 10 seconds versus the 60+ Windows 10 takes these days. Really makes you think how much of that feeling of "Ugh, my computer has gotten slow" is just Windows cruft. Linux Mint feels as fast as the day I first built this thing (when it was a Ryzen 3700X and an RTX 2070S) and was blown away at how much faster a NVMe drive was to boot from.
Stupid planned obsolescence.
VoxelVexillologist
Multidimensional Radical Centrist
1d ago
Heh, I remember a page linked from HN of a similar vintage that was giving away what was at the time a couple fractions of a penny in Bitcoin (IIRC 0.01 or 0.001BTC when 1BTC was a couple pennies). At the time it didn't seem worth the effort, so I didn't create a wallet. If I had done so, it'd at least be worth my while these days.
TheAntipopulist
Formerly Ben___Garrison
1d ago
The Trump-Musk friendship had already crumbled, but now it seems like it's actively imploding.
Musk went nuclear against Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill", calling it a "disgusting abomination". In response, the White House is "very disappointed" in the criticism. In other words, they're probably saying "fuck you, Elon" behind closed doors. Trump had previously been anomalously deferential to Musk, but if you read between the lines you could see there was trouble in paradise. Musk feuded with other members of the administration and Trump didn't back him up. Musk was causing enough chaos that he was starting to be seen as a political liability, and so Musk was somewhat gently pushed out of his role. People like Hanania who claimed the bromance would last have been proven incorrect, at least on this point.
Trump's budget is broadly awful, exploding the deficit to pay for regressive tax cuts, so I hope it dies.
TheAntipopulist
Formerly Ben___Garrison
1d ago
I see it as quite analogous to the Trump-Russia investigation, i.e. there was plenty of smoke, and several people under the President were up to no good. However, there was no fire despite extensive searching by the opposition party. The connection incriminating the President himself was always missing.
Mantergeistmann
1d ago
One of the most fascinating protest signs that I ever saw simply said LIBERALS GET THE BULLET TOO in all-caps sharpie. To this day, I'm not even sure they were protesting.
I'm reminded of the BLM flag that was the snake with "YES WE WILL TREAD" or something similar. Like, they were protesting oppressive police by... wanting to oppress libertarians? Constitutionalists? The US Navy post-9/11? I mean, I assume they simply interpreted the entire flag as "Outgroup Flag" and didn't think about it, but still.
how do skeptics of "endogenous" transgender feelings explain historical cases?
Do you have someone in mind, here? Like, I vaguely recall an essay by Alex Byrne suggesting that the notion of "feeling" a certain gender seems incoherent, under the rubric of socially constructed gender. But that kind of thinking, with gender distinct from sex, is very mid-20th century (Simone de Beauvoir) on. Historical cases don't really deal in gender differences without also addressing sex and sexuality; individual cases differ, but the text confirms my expectation that a 1979 Playboy reader would naturally assume transsexuals to also be homosexuals. Why imitate the dress and behavior of a sexually available woman if you were not trying to attract sexual attention from men (or, perhaps homosexual women)? The endogenous feeling there would be homosexuality, of which transsexuality would be a symptom. Autogynephilia would also qualify as endogenous without being a gender feeling. Historical examples aren't hard to explain with just-so stories either way. Noticing, say, the boom in rapid onset gender dysphoria in adolescent girls is not the same thing as committing oneself to the position that transsexuality is strictly a social contagion. So it seems like you need to be more specific about which argument you think you're undermining, here.
she was born in 1939 and had transgender feelings as a child
I have never heard anyone make a claim like this in a way that seemed really believable to me--much like my expectation that people who claim to have seen miracles are more likely to be either foolish or lying, than to have actually seen miracles, no matter how honest they seem to be. I find it far easier to believe that "I had trans feelings as a kid" is a retrospective gloss, or even deliberate self deception, than that a child has specifically "transgender" feelings. Children often reject the gender roles imposed upon them, but part of the problem here is--how do you know you "feel like a girl" if you've never been one? Wanting to fill a cultural role assigned to the opposite sex is something many, maybe most people experience on occasion. Cranking that all the way to "no, I just am fe/male" simply elevates such feelings to the level of an insistent delusion. The addition of social "support" for that kind of thinking probably makes it easier to sell the obvious lie to oneself, or to sort of emotionally sanitize homosexual or autogynephilic drives.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but sexual psychology is really screwy. Humans have sex with animals. Humans have sex with trees. Jeff Bezos, a human billionaire, left his attractive and long-suffering wife for sex with a second-rate journalist made mostly of plastic. Why wouldn't there be people out there who get off on cross-dressing or whatever; that may be one of the least weird things humans have done, sexually. The trans advocacy community works really hard to insist that gender isn't a sex thing, but I think that is ultimately just empirically false. Your brain does not contain separate wiring for sex and gender. It's all one big, thoroughly interconnected mess. That is how "trans" cases can come to exist even in the absence of social contagion: the same way every other psychosexual phenomenon comes to exist! Through the interaction of reproductive drives (normal, pathological, or otherwise), personal circumstances, and cultural norms.
5434a
1d ago
Any number of real medical conditions don't prove that Munchausen Syndrome isn't also real.
There's always been a small number of LGB and what we nowadays call T. The social sanctions on these people used to be very strong. Despite those sanctions gay men, for example, would still go cruising public toilets looking for strangers to have sex with. They might get arrested, or they might get their teeth punched out, but that didn't stop them. I think we can credit them with sincerity. Likewise there were men who went into the theatre scene where many eccentricities were tolerated and entertained and given a route for expression, eccentricities like pretending you're a woman on stage and then not fully relinquishing the role off stage. Outside of the theatre scene such a man might push and test the boundaries by exhibiting feminine behaviours, but the explicit claim of wanting to be a (or indeed already "being" an as-yet-unrealised) woman would have been met with disapprobation.
Skip forward and we have seen practically every major avenue of cultural publishing pumping out the message that being trans is something to be proud of, that being anti-trans is something to be ashamed of, and that the diagnosis of trans amounts to whether you've ever felt like you're not totally 100% sure that you fulfill all the expectations of your normal gender role.
It's late here so in short: sometimes you get things despite the disincentives (I'm here posting an ant-trans message right now!), you can reasonably expect to get much more of something if you remove disincentives and increase the incentives, and if people perceive the incentives are strong enough they will adopt an insincere position to acquire an advantage.
JarJarJedi
1d ago
I wasn't trying to bring new evidence. If the mass of evidence already widely available on the topic did not convince you, it's the matter of choice, not the quality of evidence. It's like O.J Simpson looking for the "real killer", or Jussie Smollett still claiming MAGA thugs assaulted him. It's not about quantity or quality of evidence by this point. More evidence will inevitably appear, as it always does, but nothing prevents people who do not want to believe it from rejecting it too. Frankly, I do not see any way available for me - or anyone - to convince anybody who has decided on not being convinced. There must be a voluntary act of opening oneself to this possibility.
Gabby Giffords has never been President.
...
[emphasis added]
The only person to use the President in this conversation, so far, has been me: to highlight that Kamala Harris laughed at the idea of the Second Amendment meaning anything, and to point to Harry Reid burning Romney.
EDIT: To be clear, the Harris cackle.
WandererintheWilderness
1d ago
Gabby Giffords has never been President.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
1d ago
I’ve often thought that almost everything in politics over the last 25 years could be summarized as “the old neo-liberal, postwar consensus on major issues is completely outdated and we are despairing of finding something that would actually fix our problems.” Violence is the end of that road, and unless we find a solution to the very serious problems, we’ll be there very soon.
The career path as it once existed no longer works for most people. The college to living wage job pipeline is clogged and the expense of even making an attempt at going through that is prohibitively expensive. To try costs hundreds of thousands paid out of every paycheck.
Housing is in crisis to the point that most young adults have given up on ever having one. And with that and the rise of two income households, the possibility of having a baby is just too daunting. Especially when adding in the cost of living, child care, and so on.
AI is poised to take milllions of jobs within the decade. We haven’t even begun to talk about it, but I suspect that within a generation, technological unemployment will be a big problem.
No solutions have been provided for any of this. And in fact most political leaders have been ignoring those problems alongside lots of others for a long time.
solowingpixy
the resident car guy
1d ago
I have recommended that. The middle sister went and allegedly got the same initial reaction from her therapist that I got from mine (something along the lines of "How are you still alive?"). The little sister is more private and thus I have no idea.
gattsuru
1d ago
You're going to need to need to circumscribe that "try" a bit more.
naraburns
nihil supernum
1d ago
Nice.
(I built a mining rig in 2010 because I thought Bitcoin was philosophically interesting, then I never actually mined anything because it was beyond my technical abilities and I was busy with other philosophically interesting stuff. My only consolation is that there is no possible world where I both actually mined Bitcoin and held it beyond a total value of, say, $50,000, which would be a nice amount of money to have, but is not really a life-changing amount.)
gattsuru
1d ago
However, I think the point remains that less-lethal weapons address the problems you wrote about
No, I don't think they do. I linked the Dolloff case for a few different reasons, here, both that pepper spray did not work there, and that quite a lot of the left that even heard of this case thought it justified the shooting, including the prosecutor.
and that a firearm may have been a good defense weapon against this specific attacker is not a good reason to opt for firearms over less-lethal weapons.
Continuity of force has a lot of utility in self-defense considerations. When someone has pointed a flamethrower, or thrown a molotov at an elderly innocent and is carrying two more, these considerations become 'what part of my continuity of force is best or most ethical', not 'what part of my continuity of force did I not leave at hom- and I got beaten to death'.
How do you know?
... because I've written at length about a number of Molotov-launchers over the last five years, as well as followed both the court cases and a number of self-defense experts specifically highlighting the threat model they and similar groups represent.
... it's difficult to overstate a problem that is literally deathly serious.
Yes. Yes it is. I would prefer that to be a problem that the defender has to consider than the attacker or attackers gets to exploit.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1d ago
Hard to dispute. If God wanted, we could live in Winney the Pooh physics where nobody gets seriously hurt beyond saying 'oh bother'. An omnipotent can do anything.
Amadan
Enjoying my short-lived victory
1d ago
Read: “I made an alt so I can drop a pissy comment without repercussions”
Don't be pissy yourself.
Homies: Ride or Die and also my Tron lighting project have not had much progress this week. Instead I became consumed by
(rant follows)
a silicon degradation issue in my Intel i9-14900k.
I bought an i9-14900k about a year ago and it was fine for a few months. Then I started having random segfaults in browser processes and also when running compile jobs. I noticed that 95% of them were happening on core 4 so I disabled that and life was mostly okay again.
But not completely. Once in awhile I'd run make clean and then make and one random compilation unit would segfault. Re-running make would be fine. I tried either clang or gcc and the same thing kept happening. It would happen within like 2 seconds if I let all cores get used.
Weirdly, it wouldn't happen if I ran a more traditional CPU benchmark like stress-ng letting that run for hours and hours, and it wouldn't happen if I played an intensive FPS game since I guess those do all of their parallel tasks on the GPU. Apparently nothing stresses a CPU like big compilation jobs.
I tried dicking with BIOS settings for awhile before finally giving up and deciding to replace it with a Ryzen 9 7950x, which was supposed to be comparably powerful but doesn't have notorious silicon degradation issues like the Intel does.
Unfortunately this meant I needed to also get a new mainboard and upgrade the 128GB of RAM I have to DDR5. Also a new CPU cooler.
The Ryzen stack arrived and I rebuilt my PC with it (e.g. swapped the PSU and case and some NVMe drives) and I'm relieved to say it's been humming along beautifully.
Now I'm barking up Intel's tree to at least RMA the busted CPU so I can look to either build another PC with it (at this point I just need a PSU and case) and hand it down to my kid, or maybe I should try to sell it as a complete system and recover some of my losses. I expect if I try selling it all I'll about $800 on this experiment due to the mainboard and RAM and cooler being used.
Why didn't I just RMA the Intel CPU with the cross-shipping option where they send you the new CPU first and then you can return the broken one? Because I just was so done with Intel. I can understand a CPU not working from day one, but something about it degrading with time and this being such a widespread issue is really crazy-making.
Oh yeah while I was trying to make this decision yet another Intel CPU security issue was discovered https://comsec.ethz.ch/research/microarch/branch-privilege-injection/
Basically sealed it for me. How far Intel has fallen.
In the meantime I decided to switch my diff tool to difftastic, since it understands the ASTs of 30 different programming languages (thanks to tree-sitter) and it can show you AST related diffs that are better at displaying what meaningfully changed rather than mere line/word diffs. Should reap insane efficiency gains.
WandererintheWilderness
1d ago
If you mean to say that the Blue government have not passed a federal ban on all firearms
Yes, that is what I meant. The fact that they've only tried the thousand-papercuts tactic, instead of just going ahead and saying "no guns, ever", is exactly what the Constitution is buying you, and what you would lose if you tried to make it common knowledge that you can just ignore the Constitution.
He explicitly thinks English society is increasingly run by a cabal of vicious, anti-human elites and is therefore sinking back into barbarism.
When you write it out like that you make Chesterton sound positivly Trumpian.
That our institutions have been captured by a cabal of anti-human elites actively working to turn the US into a 3rd World country is arguably one of the core premises of the MAGA-right.
I was motivated by this comment, but I don't want to target a specific user with a question.
How confident are you that you're not falling into a typical mind trap? (Scott references phantom sensations and "body maps," and phantom limb syndrome researchers found ~60% of transmen reported experiencing phantom penis sensations, when surveyed. I can't comment on brain scan interpretations, but there's a fair amount of evidence there's something neurological going on.) I can't relate to the experience described, but I disagree that it's more worthy of disbelief than any other internal experience.
How was it empirically disproven?
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