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domain:alexepstein.substack.com

Some items I'm looking at this week, as always provided on a best-effort basis.

Geopolitics

Americas

Drug cartel operatives from Mexico and Colombia joined the International Legion in Ukraine to gain experience with first person view drone usage.

Trump says Russia has '10 days from today' to end Ukraine war, or face penalties

Europe

UK threatens to recognize Palestine as a state

UK prisoners are bringing goods into jail via drone

Niger signs a nuclear cooperation deal with Russia

Chikungunya spreads from Indian Ocean islands

Spain and Greece are facing a health alert due to rising cases of Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF), an illness with a mortality rate of about 30%

Middle East

Gaza

Israeli military announces 'tactical pause' to Gaza attacks amid mounting global pressure

At least 46 Palestinians killed by Israeli fire in Gaza, officials say, as hunger crisis grinds on

Aid trucks resume flow from Egypt to Gaza via Rafah crossing for 3rd consecutive day

Trump's envoy meets Netanyahu for Gaza aid push

Testimony of a former employee of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation paints them as deliverately shooting into crowds.

Marjorie Taylor Greene labels Israel's actions as genocide

Egypt, UAE, Jordan airdrop aid over Gaza

Israeli army says 52 aid packages airdropped in Gaza

Famine threshold reached in Gaza

Yemen

Yemen's Houthis said on Sunday they would target any ships belonging to companies that do business with Israeli ports, regardless of their nationalities

Asia

Canada intends to recognise a Palestinian state in September

Taiwan is building up its drone capacity (but reporting doesn't point out how they will just be built by China)

Africa

Militant islamic groups have reportedly killed 155K people over the last decade

Cholera outbreaks in Africa

Attacks in Kordofan states (Sudan) cause hundreds of deaths, mass displacement and the collapse of essential services

Cholera Rampant Among Displaced and Refugees in Darfur and Eastern Chad

Bio

"Article looking at AI drug discovery. Much has been made about the potential for AI to produce pandemics, but they also make defense easier.

Tech and AI

Hierarchical reasoning might be a new architecture that does better.

New powerful open source models

I am not aware of anyone laboring under another definition, least of all JK Rowling, who as far as I know, has never claimed to not be "anti trans", but I admit I haven't done a comprehensive survey here.

At least initially*, she definitely did claim she was not "anti-trans." She repeatedly said she supported trans rights inasmuch as they had a right to be respected and live their lives as they wished and not be harassed or abused. She just didn't think trans women should be treated as actually biologically women, housed with women in women's prisons, young girls should not be encouraged to have mastectomies and put on T, etc.

Yes, that's "anti-trans" by the reductive trans activist perspective that anything less than unconditional validation is anti-trans, but it's not a reasonable definition to anyone else.

It's absolutely crazy-making to me, that people read everything she has written, in which she has laid out her beliefs with care and nuance, and what they come away with is "She's a hateful bigot who wants trans people put in camps."

(Part of the reason it is so crazy-making to me is that I basically share Rowling's views. And yes, there are spaces and social circles where I know I simply cannot say this if I want to maintain those relationships.)

* Admittedly, after years of being dogpiled in public, I think her rhetoric is a bit harsher and more mocking nowadays, but I think she'd still say she believes basically the same thing, that trans women have rights which should be supported, but that doesn't include the right to be treated as a biological woman.

It's negative political polarization applied to the culture war. Your most important sign of loyalty to the (Republican / Democratic) party is your steadfast hatred of the (Democratic / Republican) party; you're in good standing with the left because you hate Trump, or Trump is in good standing with you because he's doing something the left hates.

Translated to the culture war: What makes you a good feminist is to find something men like, and then do the opposite. So if men like good titty in their videogames, but want their actual girlfriend to have never been a prostitute, the feminist ideal is to be in favor of sex work but opposed to sexy space marines. Porn is acceptable because the actress's boyfriend(s) would prefer that she just be a hot barista instead. Attractive women in videogames are bad because not only do men enjoy it, the company profiting is probably made up of men, too.

Some time ago I posted that my field - a subfield of physics, with research largely funded by the U.S. Dept. of ______ - was on pins and needles due to a zany scheme by the Department to completely reorganize how research was done (and not, as people tend to assume, due to Elon Musk. Though probably helped along by the impulse to be ostentatiously but ineffectively budget-conscious.)

That scheme took time to be launched and has been in progress for long enough that prior grants are beginning to expire unreplaced, and as of today, that hits me.

If my group manages to survive, they want me back, which I'm glad to hear, but the rumors flying at this point are wild, supposing that nobody is going to be spared, but all eventually left to run dry 'til maybe the next calendar year. (Though Congress seems blissfully unaware of this, actually raising the funding of our field to record levels for next year. Disapproving huzzahs for fiscal irresponsibility, I guess.)

So I think it's unlikely I'll be able to return to my previous place, and also unlikely that I won't have to move for a new job. Which is kind of a shame - even though I've been living in an incorrigible single-party state, the place I've been living has been moderate enough, and I've grown to feel like it's home, especially due to my church. But oh well. I will go where I must go.

And in the event anybody knows anybody who could have use of an aerospace engineer/fluid physicist, I'll probably be available over the next few months.

I will steelman that. If "intentionally provocative" implies they were doing something illicit or unsavory, (i.e., "dogwhistling white supremacy") no, they weren't. However, the current environment, the year of our lord 2025, when woke is very much not dead, I would be astonished if the marketing team did not fully anticipate that having a hot blue-eyed blonde woman talking about her "good genes" and being unapologetically sexy (in the most traditional, "conventionally attractive" as they say, way) and white, would generate Discourse.

In other words, they knew a bunch of woke critics would flip their shit exactly as they are doing. Maybe they didn't bank on quite such a strong (and profitable!) reaction, but I'll bet they were totally pricing in attacks on the pretty white lady implying that it's good to be pretty, and probably some claims that they were pushing eugenics and Nazi imagery as well. So in that sense, that they were counting on (and possibly banking on) some unhinged reactions to generate a little controversy, yes, they were being intentionally provocative.

(And the best sexy ads are provocative. The famous Brooke Shields ad generated Discourse back in the day, not because she was hot and white, but because she was fifteen. They knew what they were doing then too.)

I mean, reactionary authoritarian governments are generally not interested in interrogating random poor people about their innermost beliefs. American Franco would be content if you just shut up.

Trump derangement syndrome

I don't think aesthetics need to be 'obviously superior' to be a threat, they just need to be socially accepted.

But besides that--yes. Aesthetics have a tremendous impact on many people's politics, so the stronger the alternatives to 'woke aesthetics', the stronger the alternatives to woke politics.

You can't do much about porn, it's too low status and ubiquitous. People already think it's low status so trying to make it more so is just a waste of energy . And you can't "improve" it because the rubber really meets the road there.

You absolutely can ban it and/or require ID to view it. A few states have already done this and I expect more to follow on.

In the US, black includes basically everyone who would be considered mixed in most other places.

Though I suspect there's really two econ majors, one that's kind of a business for poets version and one that's intended to prepare you for a rigorous econ PhD program.

Correct. IME at a state school you could get a B.S. or B.A. in Econ. The B.S. program was more rigorous while the B.A. in Econ program wasn't especially challenging in terms of math. Cal 1 was sufficient to pass the vast majority of those classes. On that note, I was a history double-major (originally intended for econ to be a minor but the difference between minor and major was something like 18 credit hours) and I was impressed by how easy the final paper was for an otherwise difficult (I was rusty on the math so I actually had to put some work into it.) class on international trade: four pages double-spaced. I wrote one of the more boring papers I ever put together and received an A+ on it.

Since we talk about tattoos here from time to time I thought it would be amusing to link to the story about this man who has face tattoos is unable to pass the photo verification checks.

https://needtoknow.co.uk/2025/07/30/britains-most-tattooed-man-claims-he-is-unable-to-watch-prn-as-new-age-check-system-mistakes-his-ink-for-a-mask/

queer barbershop

Surely not.

Ok, I'm curious, is a very plain woman preferable to a jawdropping stunning one?

Count me as another straight guy who sees Zendaya as pretty mid for a starlet.

She seems like a decent-sized Hollywood star but not particularly big, and in terms of her physical features, she's definitely very attractive, but not in a way that would stand out compared to other Hollywood actresses known for their beauty or some popular Instagram model.

Sweeney stands out because she is voluptuous instead of reserved, and has doe eyes instead of an intense, piercing gaze. That latter part is the more important bit. She's the rare Hollywood woman who men look at and assume she wouldn't be a massive bitch in the unlikely event that they ever managed to get her romantic attention.

but murdering the disabled for being a burden is a thing I associate with liberal democracies like Canada

It wouldn't be my disability that would get me executed; that would just get me cut off from the welfare teat and left to starve. No, I'd expect it to be my atheism that would do it.

Is that more or less ridiculous a take than the people who complained that Blazing Saddles was racist?

I'd say only slightly more. The people who complain about Blazing Saddles are generally the sort who can't grasp the use/mention distinction, and also often the sort to argue that certain very bad things should not be depicted in fiction even to condemn them, like the nerd forum (I can't remember which one) that was considering banning any and all mention or discussion of Chainsaw Man, because it depicts Makima's grooming of Denji, even if it also shows it as quite clearly a bad thing.

Meanwhile, the person complaining about the "Druish Princess" joke in Spaceballs also thought Brooks's Yiddish accent as Yogurt was Italian, because it's one of those "white ethnic" accents you hear in NYC, right? And "Brooks" isn't the most Jewish-sounding surname, is it? So expecting her to know he's Jewish — and thus the joke is "classic Jewish self-deprecating humor" instead of an "antisemitic microaggression" — is totally unreasonable, and you know what the only kind of non-Jew who bothers to learn and remember who is or isn't Jewish is….

(Now ask me about the "naked Orientalist racism" in Batman comics…)

Now I’m imagining a bison with a browser-grade neck. Cartoony animal.

Moderation queue.

I recognize that my perceptions might get a little skewed…

…What sort of noise? In my line of work, we’re hard limited by the thermal noise floor.

Anyway. My understanding of the patent system is that it’s enforced by lawsuits. Someone sets up a factory making your widget, you hear about it, you sue for infringement. The larger the operation, the more value in bringing a suit. As a result, the legal department of those large companies will seek out your license ahead of time. Especially if your company is on the prowl for violators.

I have zero idea how this works for software. Presumably all the same rules apply, but if a commercial product skimmed your paper and implemented it, how would you ever know? And yet people clearly do patent techniques, and if your technique is as applicable as it sounds, you might really get value from patenting.

So, uh, no idea. Sorry. Hit me up if you decide to share it though :)

Huh. I guess I'll put another marker toward that theory as a bi guy; Znedaya looks perfectly fine to me, where I'd expect Ferguson to be the one straight guys would put as 'only gay fashion dudes like'.

Only insofar as 'conservative' hides 'what men want', and only then insofar as 'what men want' is more acceptable than it was 5-10 years ago.

Tucker Carlson may have worn out his welcome with those things, but the explanation of the firing I trust most is the one Rod Dreher gave: that his Heritage Foundation keynote weirded out Rupert Murdoch by sounding much too religious. It seems like a stretch, I know, but if you watch the keynote I think it's easier to see.

In a completely non-racial way, Sydney Sweeney has great genes. In the same way that Saquon Barkley has great genes, that Barack Obama has great genes, that Fedor has great genes, that Lucy Liu has great genes. Great genetics aren't inherently a racial question.

But plenty of people will argue that, racial or not, it is a eugenic position, a Nazi position.

The main example that comes to my mind is a guy who used to comment over on Marginal Revolution under various handles (prior_approval, clockwork_prior, etc.). Any time Tyler Cowen would mention CRISPR or gene therapy, he'd show up to make snide comments calling Cowen a Nazi. He'd invoke his coming from Virginia — home of many of the first eugenics laws — and current residence in Germany — no need to elaborate — as to his personal authority on the matter of the inevitable horrors of any attempt at "genetic improvement", and frequently mention the Grundgesetz, and the guarantee of inviolable human dignity in its unalterable first Article, as to why "Nazis" like Cowen would be stopped, and eventually get what they deserve.

He'd only ever give fragments of an argument amidst the snide denunciations and grand invocations of the Grundgesetz, but if you read enough of his comments (as I did), his argument did come together. It mostly came down to a belief in "eugenics" being a singular entity which must be condemned or approved of as a whole, and there are no lines to be drawn within it (so you must either approve of "genetic improvement" — including the Holocaust — or reject it — including CRISPR-style gene therapies); and that whether or not someone is a "Nazi" comes down to their view on "the Nazi idea." Not a Nazi idea, the Nazi idea; the singular view from which all the other terrible elements follow.

And that idea? The very phrase used in the pun: "good genes." The Nazi idea is that of genetic superiority — that a person's genes can be "better" or "worse" than another's, which follows, logically, from the belief that a gene can be "good" or "bad." The inviolable human dignity guaranteed forever by the Grundgesetz requires the unwavering belief that everyone's genes are equal, and thus every gene is equal. No allele is ever "good" or "bad," ever "better" or "worse" than another.

And why would you ever go through the trouble and effort of modifying human genes, of replacing one allele with another, unless you think the new allele is somehow "better" than the old one? And if you believe that, you're a Nazi, and you'll be dealt with like every other Nazi.

Prior is my primary example because he's the one whose comments I read the most of, back when I read MR occasionally. But I've seen similar views (even less well-argued) from others whenever the topic of genetic modification — or genetic "quality" in general — comes up. Sydney Sweeney, Saquon Barkley, Barack Obama, Fedor, Lucy Liu; their genes are all no better than anyone else's — and anyone who disagrees is a Nazi eugenicist, who must be stopped before they inevitably cause another Holocaust.