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dogfish
1d ago
Would Iran nuke America though? Thinking about it for more than 5 seconds, how can one honestly think they would? They act like people who care about continuing to exist (for example, their retaliations against US aggression, e.g. Soleimani's killing, are always highly calculated so as not to start a full-scale war with the US). And they must know that nuking America means they will cease to exist the same minute. So, I need more convincing that they are willing to commit civilizational suicide. Or is the idea that they're biding their time so they can reach the point where they can nuke one US city, and then having achieved that goal, they'll happily get vaporized? Somehow I doubt that.
Like the other person said:
Note that "marg bar _____", while literally translating as "death to _____", is often used as an idiomatic expression of general hostility; compare how N. W. A. were not expressing carnal desire for the local constabulary.
Iran's whole shtick since 1979 has been hyperbolic rhetoric and sabre-rattling. Doesn't mean they would commit country-level suicide.
SecureSignals
Training the Aryan LLM
1d ago
"The terrorist attack on Israel will encourage Israel to attack back!" is not prescience.
Not very many people predicted the extent of the destruction of Gaza, not to mention that escalation path that would ensue from that response. Many here were consistently underpredicting the Israeli response every step of the way.
4bpp
Now I am become a Helpful, Honest and Harmless Assistant, the destroyer of jobs
1d ago
I always thought of it as a corollary of motte-and-bailey (arranged something like that old "their barbarous wastes" two-castle picture) - [I get to keep] my bailey > my motte > the opponent[ gets to keep hi]s motte > the opponent's bailey.
SecureSignals
Training the Aryan LLM
1d ago
They are going to couch it mostly as voluntary emigration, but if you blockade a region and completely level the cities and make intolerable conditions, and then set up offices to facilitate "voluntary emigration" that is an expulsion as far as I'm concerned. The extent of the destruction of Gaza doesn't point in a different direction with respect to longer-term plans.
Hadad
1d ago
These predictions are pretty damn weak, man. Fuentes isn't making any good predictions. "The terrorist attack on Israel will encourage Israel to attack back!" is not prescience. Nor is proclaiming that this is what gives us license to attack Iran's nuclear facilities; we've been dealing with their attempts to go nuclear for years and years at this point.
Predicting retaliatory violence after an attack isn't foresight.
phailyoor
1d ago
"Nobody is expelling any Palestinians," Mr. Trump told reporters.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-gaza-war-not-expelling-palestinians-egypt-post-ceasefire-plan/
Gaza is completely destroyed, even if they wanted to keep the Gazans in Gaza it's hard to see how that would be possible at this point even with a good-faith effort.
If nobody will take them, then they will remain in Gaza. There's an entire wall around the place.
Hadad
1d ago
Being world hegemon requires a flourishing and agile MIC. I quite like America having the biggest stick. I much prefer it to someone else having it.
AvocadoPanic
1d ago
Yes, won't someone please think of the poor MIC.
Funding this death and destruction for the pecuniary benefit of the MIC, makes it worse not better.
Are you equally concerned for the bankers who may suffer without this largesse?
self_made_human
C'est la vie
1d ago
I have no answers to offer, but I can tell you that the Thai are just as obsessed with pickup trucks. Half the cars I saw on the road were one variant or another, and they rarely seemed to be used for their nominal purpose. Thankfully, much like the people, they were on average much smaller than American pickup trucks.
Hadad
1d ago
The Israelis TRIED the Ethnic Cleansing, by offering Gaza and the West Bank back to the Egyptians and Jordan in exchange for peace! The genius of the Egyptians and Jordanians is that they REJECTED the inclusion of Gaza and West Bank into their territories and made peace anyways!
That's not ethnic cleansing. Rest of your post is fine, not sure how viable a gelatinous cube is, but yes, the best outcome for all is the Middle East self-destructing completely.
Hadad
1d ago
I don't much believe in horseshoe theory, anyway. I think people are far too quick to say "oh, so you don't like the status quo? Then you're just like all these people who don't!"
There's actually a huge gulf between what the "horseshoe's ends" think, believe, and want, and tying them together is actively detrimental to understanding their motives.
Primaprimaprima
...something all admit only "TRUMP", and the Trump Administration, can do.
1d ago
a hateful, developmentally stunted man who picked his wounds in public
So you mean to say, he was an artist!
The greater works are always autobiographical to some degree. In minor works, the author's own individuated personality is not strong enough to shine through ("every great philosophy hitherto has been a confession on the part of its author" [emphasis mine]).
Sometimes you won't always like the autobiographical content that is thus exposed. It won't always be admirable, it won't always speak to your own experience, etc. But you can still choose to adopt a more detached viewpoint and find what can be appreciated in it as a phenomenon for its own sake.
Of course this is not a natural and spontaneous attitude, but one that must be cultivated through diligent practice. I try to make a habit of doing mental exercises like, I imagine someone I admire, either because of their work or on a personal level or whatever, and I imagine: what if I discovered something absolutely horrifying about them? What if their own values actually turned out to be antithetical to everything I value? What if they hated free expression, what if they supported wireheading, etc. Or maybe there's something far worse than any of that, something that my conscious mind won't even let me access. And in this hypothetical I try to remind myself that, in spite of all that, there still has to be some kernel there that made me admire them in the first place, so my goal at that point would be to achieve an understanding of the phenomenon that is the person as a whole, rather than get bent out of shape about the individual things that we disagreed on.
self_made_human
C'est la vie
1d ago
I was joking about paying for rent! He's a nice dude, he would never ask. I covered my stay by fighting to the front of the pub to pay for our (many) drinks.
Indians are usually far more adept at keeping track of the clan. I think I personally know just two of my third cousins, this one included. With my coaxing, he's up to four. But if I cared to ask my mom, I could probably find out about dozens of others. Even so, I'm sure some have fallen through the cracks, the average person would have ~192 third cousins, but that assumes each generation having 2-3 kids. At least until quite recently, our family had quite a few more. We guesstimated that there's 500 of them running around, with a sizeable number scattered across the globe. I think the only continents I don't have relatives in are South America and Antarctica.
But being pro-Palestine is quite strange, and understood as the domain of too-liberal for their own good ivory tower students. It might not come up, although there’s a good chance Trump would.
I was somewhat taken aback. I thought that the UK would be similar to the US in that regard. I'm not sure if my cousins are in a relative bubble of PMC left-leaning folk, or if it really is near universal. All of the media I've noticed here seems to be at least leaning Palestinian, but it had never come up as a topic of IRL conversation until almost a year in. I presume they wouldn't have asked if they didn't feel comfortable around me.
Hadad
1d ago
Yes, they are our enemy, and we are their enemy. The difference is we can destroy them, and they can get destroyed.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1d ago
Yeah the Iranians are a disaster shit show.
Much like the Russians pre-2022, I thought they were much more sophisticated than they actually were. Then things started exploding and they turned out to be yet another paper tiger.
Praying we get the same twist with China, very worried we will not
dogfish
1d ago
Proportionally more Germans and Japanese folks lost loved ones to Allied bombing and yet 20 years later both of them were singing god bless America.
The Germans and Japanese weren't displaced, had their lands settled and permanently occupied. Well ok, Germany lost ethnic German land, but they still have a sizeable country. But Germany and Japan were also aggressive expansionist empires, while the Palestinians, from their own perspective, were just minding their own business when a bunch of Jews moved in. That all probably makes a big difference.
Both the US and Israel have at this point made it clear the Gaza population is going to be deported and not allowed to return. It hasn't happened yet but both Trump and Israel have stated this position. Gaza is completely destroyed, even if they wanted to keep the Gazans in Gaza it's hard to see how that would be possible at this point even with a good-faith effort. But the overtures from both Trump and Israel is that the population is going to be deported; sorry, "allowed to leave."
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
1d ago
But the consequences of their choices is permanent conflict around them, and a world (which to an extent they depend on) that is steadily losing sympathy for their plight.
It seems Iran has lost international sympathy even faster; Putin shrugged and said there's a lot of Russian-speaking Israelis, and China isn't lifting a finger for them either. (To be fair, China said the UN Security Council should act against the US. Which is a joke seeing as the US has a veto). The consequences of their choices may be permanent conflict, but it does not appear -- aside from ceasing to exist -- that they have options which do not involve that.
Jiro
1d ago
Fuente's obsession with Israel appeared to result in what is perhaps the most accurate prediction of the series of events following Oct. 7th among anyone else.
They're still not accurate. You snuck in there "enables Israel to finally solve the Gaza Question with ethnic cleansing" as a "successful" prediction. It's actually a failed prediction.
"Knowingly" and "will give Israel an excuse to" are not successful predictions either, unless you can read minds.
dogfish
1d ago
Part of me wonders if everyone would have been better off if the Isreali's had just ripped the band aid off back in the day and just straight pushed them out/completed the ethnic cleansing. The displaced Palestinians would still be salty, but they'd be a few generations into moving on by now, and they'd probably get bombed way less.
I mean, obviously, if you don't finish the job, the remnants will continue to be a problem for you. But if the only way to ensure long-term peace for Israel was complete ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians, maybe the whole project should never have been attempted in the first place (especially over such dumb sentimental reasons as "our mythology says this is our homeland" and then hoping that the people already living there would be understanding).
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Of course this is going to end with Iran conducting a nuclear test. You know that, right? The ayatollah will take a break from tweeting out relationship advice and repeal the fatwa(or reinterpret it) and Iran will launch a volley of conventional missiles which get through and then conduct a nuclear test.
SubstantialFrivolity
I'm not even supposed to be here today
1d ago
Maybe. But I would say I think it's more important to get proper authorization from the people for use of force, than it is to keep military operations secret. The president already has way too much power, we don't need him getting us into wars without any check on his power.
VoxelVexillologist
Multidimensional Radical Centrist
1d ago
The external bed of a pickup truck is also easier to clean than the inside of a van, so you can haul dirty things that you might not want inside your van (cans of gas for your lawn implements, deer carcasses, brush) and hose it out when you're done.
The Israeli response has been quite measured -- Gaza still exists, and its population has even climbed, last I checked. They should go harder, but they seem unwilling.
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