domain:farhakhalidi.substack.com
RollingInMud
1d ago
Don't forget, that it's not about accessing the Persian gulf per se, it's about increased risk for the civilian maritime transportation which will drive up insurance costs, freight companies will start declining contracts etc. Just a threat of sinking any civilian vessel will affect those things.
self_made_human
C'est la vie
1d ago
I don't see why they wouldn't work, but you'd be stretching out the transplanted follicles to cover a lot more surface area.
I don't recall running into any studies, but I think it's just an observed fact that's not really in question. It would be good to know the numbers though!
oats_son
1d ago
Interesting, I thought hair transplants didn't really work once you're a norwood 7. It would probably cost an insane amount of money at that stage, at least.
I wonder what the statistics are on how averse women are to going for their less lucky counterparts while single.
mr_bailey
1d ago
Things could get weird. The US (and North America as a whole) are net oil producers these days. Shutting off the gulf is such a large shock to the system you could see some pretty significant price divergence and shortages between regions as infrastructure limits could prevent fully arbitraging the difference. You could also see political impediments to price balancing as well (wouldn't put it past Trump to ban oil exports to keep US prices in check even if it's a huge blow to our allies) and most Canadian crude has to transit the US to reach the world markets. You could even see divergence in the US where West Coast is more exposed then East coast due to Jone's Act restrictions making it difficult to move oil around the Rockies.
I'm old enough to remember the chest-thumping that happened when Trump dropped a MOAB on ISIS (we do love our acronyms, don't we folks?).
Also when he iced Soleimani.
And when they spent like a week celebrating that dog that helped kill an ISIS leader.
He damn well knows that inflicting a black eye on international opponents without getting your own people killed plays well.
Even OBAMA knew this, hence the fanfare around taking out Bin Laden.
And he's also making a number of his opponents run cover for Iran directly.
Lizzardspawn
1d ago
I know quite a few normie republicans in meatspace that are now sitting the midterms out and won't vote for him though, but that is just a single anecdote.
The midterms are far away. Prolonged involvement will tank trump. But a no-fly zone over iran that is manned by Israel, funded by Saudi Arabia and US just selling fuel and munitions and repairs to Israel probably won't.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
1d ago
I did remember it, but I was talking about post-2021. The claim a lot of people are making on this site which I disagree with is that there has been a recent increase in political violence.
veqq
1d ago
mass minority uprising against the Persians
Azeris staff most of the government, presidents, generals, ayatollahs etc. There is no racial animosity here.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
1d ago
They didn't have a grassroots Wahhabist movement because Wahhabism is Sunni and they're Shiite. They did have a popular Islamic revolution which resulted in the current regime.
remzem
1d ago
Maybe, it's hard to tell these days with online spaces often being echo-chambers. I know quite a few normie republicans in meatspace that are now sitting the midterms out and won't vote for him though, but that is just a single anecdote. The polling for involvement in Iran was incredibly bad, worse than Ukraine. It'll be difficult for the dems to capitalize on given their shift to liberal interventionism and continued support for the Ukraine war at least.
Lizzardspawn
1d ago
(Arguably, the US paid a tremendous indirect toll, as all the resources they earmarked for the Manhattan project would otherwise have gone into mundane military equipment which would have saved the lives of their soldiers
Like what really?
American industry provided almost two-thirds of all the Allied military equipment produced during the war: 297,000 aircraft, 193,000 artillery pieces, 86,000 tanks and two million army trucks. In four years, American industrial production, already the world's largest, doubled in size.
American soldiers stationed in the pacific used airplanes to churn ice cream (mount on the wing use some kind of RAM turbine to stir, fly high for one hour), and they converted the excess ships into ice cream supplies for the fleet.
remzem
1d ago
That's incredibly short term thinking. If you win a battle but lose the ability to fight the war it's a bad move strategically. Even if this strike wiped out all the mentioned bases it doesn't mean Iran will never be able to make a nuke ever again. Lose the midterms as is incredibly likely and he'll be even more impotent then he is now for any of his domestic policy. This does nothing to reverse Israel's already rapidly declining status in the west. It won't be long before people start questioning why we send them 4 billion a year, how it benefits us to have a rogue parasite state that manipulates our government into war.
faceh
1d ago
I've been a Panthers fan since literally day one. I grew up going to games at least, eh, once a month? 30 years of waiting, a few false hopes, and now we're cruising along as THE team to beat. Surreal. Last year felt like a dream I could wake up from any minute. This year finally makes it all feel real. Can't lie, I would like us to pull off the three-peat and then maybe ease off a bit to let some other teams (not from Canada) have a shot once again.
I'm not really a fan of the 'dirty play' side of things... but at the same time, hockey traditionally gets way more rough than virtually any other sport out there, so you have to let things play out a bit. One guy roughs up your guy, you rough him back. Your star player(s) are targets, so there is a strategic element of protecting them from aggression. As you noted, players get injuries that would get them pulled in most sports, but they slap some bandages on and get back to it.
The one thing I do wish were more honored was "Don't screw with the goalie." Personally I think they should increase the size of the crease by 50% and generally forbid players who don't have puck possession from entering. Or give the goalie a gun.
I would have gone over to the Parade today, but got stuff to do as an adult. Most of my family is out there, though. Its truly great how the league is generally not very stodgy about (non-illegal) player conduct during the off-season, and they let the cup (well, the copy of it that is designated for this purpose) just go with them to celebrate everything.
The sport has truly spoiled me, I can't really get into any other league. I like College Football for sheer chaos, but where else do you get THIS mix of constrained brutality, teamwork, camaraderie, international rivalry, generally gentlemanly behavior during the off-season, and sheer spectacle?
Greatest spectator sport imaginable. It is barely even close.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
1d ago
They can close it with their navy, which would have a lifetime measured in days if not hours I expect. They can fire on ships from shore, but any fixed installations won't last long so they'll be left basically being the Houthis of the Straits... except facing a lot more opposition. They could mine the straits, but minesweepers exist. And it's quite possible any minelaying will be met with active opposition. But if they really want to do it and are willing to take a lot of damage, they probably can -- it wasn't possible to remove the Houthi capability without invasion. So if Iran is determined I think they could make this end up with boots on the ground, which would definitely be a loss for the US, though a bigger one for them.
mr_bailey
1d ago
Mines, missiles, and drones? Civil ships are not exactly small targets and Iranian drones have seen some use in Ukraine. Could get ugly. It's likely the gulf states, East/South Asia and to a lesser degree Europe would be more affected then the US (who is, after all, a net oil exporter these days), so this hits US allies (and China, India etc.) much more then the US and Trump hasn't shown a high degree of concern about them...
RollingInMud
1d ago
Could that lead to something similar to 1973 oil crisis, which was yet another nail in the Nixon's coffin? Trump campaigning on reducing inflation and lowering gas prices, he balked at introducing the tariffs on the scale he planned, but here he might not have the leverage.
At the same time, it's a huge boon for Putin, just after his minister of economic development was talking at the Economic Forum in Saint Petersburg of the risk of recession...
Hadad
1d ago
Who exactly is 'they' here?
You don't need to know who is pushing something to notice it's being pushed. There are empirically false claims made about the Holocaust; some of them have even been publicly recognized as false (such as inflated estimates of camp populations). The problem is that all the most scandalous and lurid nonsense gets shared, and becomes common knowledge, even though it's totally bogus. There is a machine that vigorously defends the Holocaust -- both its truths and its myths.
And for the record, memory is notoriously fickle -- a child's even moreso. Trusting the field of history is fine, but you should probably not trust the survivor's testimony too much, especially this long after the events in question.
Lizzardspawn
1d ago
Total informational blackout, facial ID systems and military drones are going to make occupations much less painful.
And then I use some zero day because you vibe coded the software and your own network is busy killing you.
stuckinbathroom
1d ago
Naval mines are one obvious possibility. It’s even conceivable that the mines are already in place, awaiting remote activation—though if they were, I’m sure US/Israeli intelligence would be aware
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
1d ago
I’m rather impressed because of the political capital used. This isn’t the kind of decision one should make with an eye to what the people will think about it. If you need to prevent an enemy from getting too powerful to deal with, you need to act even if it is unpopular. An Islamist state with a history of supporting terrorism is not a state that should be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. It’s beyond crazy to me that everyone is worried about poll numbers here when the issue was Iran with access to a weapon that could kill millions.
stuckinbathroom
1d ago
Right. This is perhaps not the perfect example, but it would be something like "Does the Second Amendment guarantee the right to own grenades or fighter jets?" Originalism would try to focus on whether the founders would consider it one had it existed in said time (though it can be manipulated to cherry pick the founder you agree with). Textualism is "Death of the Author" and would say that if they meant for it to mean X they should have written it into the law. Living Constitution would say that the founders are dead and would choose the interpretation they believe is most beneficial in modern day.
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