domain:web.law.duke.edu
hydroacetylene
2d ago
Sure, but there’s plenty of states getting redder at the same time. Off the top of my head, it’s not implausible to add Rhode Island as a New England state in reach for the GOP in a good year, and Minnesota is a when not an if. If republicans really do work their way to single party dominance I’d expect Virginia to get much redder quickly, too. And if current trends continue in the Hispanic population NM is likely to be competitive for republicans again soon.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
The chance of that is pretty low- not least because mainstream Christianity has gotten much better at appealing to young men, but also the religious right is just used to being a junior coalition partner.
sockpuppet2
2d ago
Not really. Massachusetts v. EPA's what everyone points to requiring courts give 'special solicitude' to state challenges of federal policy, but that's literally only been used for that one case at SCOTUS, with every following case leaving states high and dry.
I'll have to read that article - thanks.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
The democrats do have a very unpopular wedge issue their party could easily fracture over- trannies. There’s a faction die hard opposed to any semblance of moderation that makes life hell for any democrats who say things like, you know what, schools shouldn’t keep this from parents.
sockpuppet2
2d ago
by nature people love rightful royal power
What makes you think this? What proportion of people?
He has the head of the longshoreman’s union and the head of NATO writing effusive love letters that wouldn’t be out of place addressed to a Chinese emperor.
Do you think they think Trump has the Mandate of Heaven?
sockpuppet2
2d ago
The Oct. 7 attack is going to be the tripwire that enables Israel to finally solve the Gaza Question with ethnic cleansing.
Has it? Was Israel unable to, before? Are 18+ months later, is Gaza being ethnically cleansed?
Israel is going to conduct a "brutal campaign against Gaza" which they "know Iran has to respond to."
In doing so, their retaliation against Gaza will knowingly provoke a retaliation from Iranian-backed militias against Israel.
How is this different than the pre-October 7 Iran-backed terror attacks?
This will give Israel an excuse to widen the conflict and "to do what they always wanted to do, which is bomb Iran's nuclear program".
Was the stated motivation state-sponsored terrorism, or progress towards nuclear weapons?
This will initiate war between Iran and Israel, and Israel will draw the United States into the war with Iran- Israel brings in the United States to "put Iran in check."
Bombing initiating war isn't much of a prediction, so let's focus on the US - was the US drawn-in by Israel or self-motivated and seizing an opportunity?
This will culminate in an end to the regime in Syria and an end to the regime in Iran.
When did the bombing occur, and when did the regime in Syria end?
This is the big play Israel is making.
Are we going back to the theory that Israel deliberately let the October 7 attack happen, to use it as justification for war in Gaza?
sockpuppet2
2d ago
The culture of "MAGA personalities" and its intersection with dating/family formation dynamics that are a frequent topic of discussion in The Motte.
Nope, you and Caplan are both just wrong about what the "reasonable hawk" looks like. You are the ones missing a mood, namely "competing when the stakes really, really matter". Actively hemming and hawing over the acceptable costs of a desired, good outcome is retarded and maladaptive. The overwhelming majority of human beings, even highly intelligent ones, are not psychologically capable of the the level of sociopathic, rationalist autism required to attempt his "reasonable hawk" nonsense - and even one of those 0.0001% decouplers would rapidly find themselves dehumanizing the enemy because it's just wildly more efficient in terms of mental load.
Worrying about the feelings of a lethal, intractable enemy is the sort of luxury you spare for things you outclass on the same level that we outclass wolves and bears. And even then, the people who actually live in areas with wolves and bears are less sympathetic about it than urban fools.
anti_dan
2d ago
That can amend the Presidential computation, but it doesn't change the Senate, and in the House there still will be like a floor of 195ish.
MonkeyWithAMachinegun
Dancing to Tom Paine's Bones
2d ago
If you like that, then you will love Wickard v. Filburn,
I purchased this mousepad my 1L year.
I think the examples from Caplan are more like
"Ok I can just consider that it's the morals that we disagree with, that they are just people who I find to be monsterous in ethics but just assuming "disagreement = evil" is bad, so I should look at the logic I expect from aligned morals making that argument and see if people are doing that"
Unfortunately the actual examples Caplan gives in his piece are unconvincing and suggest a lack of moral imagination on Caplan's own part. Other people don't appear to feel what Caplan thinks they should feel, so he concludes they're insincere. But maybe Caplan is just wrong about they ought to feel. Maybe he's assuming that they accept facts and moral principles that Caplan himself accepts, and if he looked closer he would realise that they don't.
Well that's the question. "Do people disagree because of a different logic or evidence base, or do they disagree because they genuinely just do not care about or actively want to harm other people, which I think is a Monster behavior"
He looks at it and says "huh, this isn't what I would expect if they weren't monsters, this is behavior I expect if they were. Oh god, these people seem like Monsters"
sun_the_second
2d ago
If "sinful" just means "harmful" then say harmful.
magicalkittycat
2d ago
Bad analogy.
Caplan points out that they aren't somber about civilian deaths, but instead often cheer it on/laugh about it.
An explanation why that happens isn't a dispute if it is happening.
ABigGuy4U
2d ago
Harris still cackled her way to 75 million votes.
There’s another upcoming structural wrinkle, and that’s the 2030 census and accompanying electoral college redistribution. Blue strongholds like California are set to lose electoral votes, and several increasingly red states like Arizona and Florida will be gaining them.
erwgv3g34
2d ago
Okay, that helps, thanks. But it's still asking everyone to disable a warning in their account settings, versus asking the one user who is using this feature to stop. Plus all the people who are not logged in or have accounts. Plus it messes up archiving.
Because America is gradually turning into Europe. All the land is fenced off and owned, there is no social mobility or opportunity for economic advancement, social class is passed generationally and rigorously guarded with shibboleths and rituals that go far beyond the money in your bank account, what you are allowed to do is constantly policed and often varies based on your class, top-down authority is lauded and self sufficiency and personal autonomy are frowned upon, all the lower classes hate each other because of 1000 year old ethnic grievances, people have effectively zero control over what their government does. What exactly does a having a king change at this point?
TitaniumButterfly
2d ago
Yeah, sorry, on my phone so I can't really give this the nuance it deserves.
We should distinguish between three different items here:
- Taking God's name in vain
- Swearing oaths
- Using impolite language ('swear words')
The first and second require way more foundation than I can lay right now. The third I just answered elsewhere in this thread, probably pretty close to this post.
TitaniumButterfly
2d ago
People have been asking about my political ideology and this pretty much sums it up: the first-world is better than the third-world. It's a good thing that we're not burning witches anymore. But you all are so concerned with "third-world immigrants" you can't see the third-worlding occurring right in front of your faces.
I never understood how you could be so good at caricaturing this obnoxious persona until I saw the page where you explicitly catalogue your history of trolling people on reddit.
This is tiresome and it'll be a nice day when the mods finally get around to banning you.
sansampersamp
2d ago
The DNC pursuing a perception of being a 'neutral leadership institution' is frequently at ends with its actual institutional purpose: getting democrats elected.
AlexanderTurok
Alt-MSNBC
2d ago
Solid statistical evidence is a pretty recent invention, and its accessibility to the public even more recent. In the meantime humans live human lives and require human guidance.
People have been asking about my political ideology and this pretty much sums it up: the first-world is better than the third-world. It's a good thing that we're not burning witches anymore. But you all are so concerned with "third-world immigrants" you can't see the third-worlding occurring right in front of your faces.
ToaKraka
Dislikes you
2d ago
it's really annoying
I see that you forgot to disable the warning for 18+ content in your account settings.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
2d ago
The alternative is you giving swords to their kid secretly, me telling my nieces and nephews that God doesn't exist and is made up, and so on and so forth.
I think some level of stating your opinion is a normal part of social relationships. I dont know if /u/Iconochasm's situation is like that, but handing the kid a foam sword there when youre talking with them, or saying you dont believe in god when it comes up, seems pretty reasonable. Dont do it in secret, dont make a plan for converting them, but expecting your kid to have zero exposure to the beliefs of a dinner guest seems pretty crazy to me. Yes, it will be a point of friction, of course it will be, but some level of friction is also a normal part of social relationships - interpreting any amount as a sign youre doing something wrong is a symptom of nerddom.
ToaKraka
Dislikes you
2d ago
I was raised evangelical and converted to Orthodoxy and have never heard it suggested that swearing is somehow implicitly sinful.
Wikipedia cites Exodus 20:7 and Deuteronomy 5:11:
Thou shalt not take the name of the Lord thy God in vain; for the Lord will not hold him guiltless that taketh his name in vain.
Which has largely shown the decline bottoming out in recent years?
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