domain:natesilver.net
HereAndGone
4d ago
Yes, there seems to be some confusion between was it in California or Canada where she allegedly worked. She may well have done so!
The middle-class thing intrigues me, because as "daughter of academics" she is indeed middle-class. But in American terms, that seems to be used to include "lower-middle class/upper working class" and when she was going on the campaign trail about being 'raised middle class' she was trying to appeal to The Ordinary American, somebody not in the same sector of society as "hob-nobbing with the wealthy and well-connected" as her career has brought her to be.
It's about status as much as economics, and while a divorced single mother may not have been swimming in money, being raised as the daughters of an academic who was that divorced single mother is not at all the same thing as being raised the daughters of the divorced single mother working as a waitress. Oakland, where she grew up (in part) is supposedly economically disadvantaged, so far as I can make out? But I imagine there's areas that are relatively better-off and relatively worse-off there as well.
HughCaulk
4d ago
Good point for sure re: far from the worst. At face value, I believe this story is totally overdone, paying 16 year olds for sex is bad, he deserved jail, but they did “consent” and it’s not like they were 10 or even 12. Majorly different classes to that sort of crime IMO.
BUT, I think there’s much deeper undercurrents here. Trumps base absolutely fucking hates that he’s “covering up” and trying to bury this story (or blame it on a dem hoax which just doesn’t make sense). He is the conspiracy candidate and he went hard on this in the campaign trail. It’s more about the fact that “releasing the Epstein tapes” means “exposing and prosecuting the Washington swamp” rather than anything specific to do with child porn/prostitution.
It also seems like Epstein had plausible connections to intelligence and Israeli intelligence specifically. Tucker Carlson is doing a huge expose on this today (yesterday?) and that’s a big deal. Tucker is the #2 pod behind Rogan AND he just spoke at the RNC like a few months ago??
While the actual facts of the story is kinda meh, this is going to be a massive problem for Trump. I wish the first major scandal was something else, like not stopping any of these wars he promised to, but ofc this is what catches on with normies & his base…
RoyGBivensAction
Zensunni Scientologist
4d ago
What's a deck you find compelling from an artwork perspective?
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
4d ago
Even a thousand Epsteins wouldn’t be as bad as, say, the Rotherham scandal
Epstein molested a few hundred girls. Rotherham was about 1400 victims, and the total across all known British Pakistani gangs is about 5000. So Rotherham is say 5x worse on scale, or 20x if you treat "Rotherham" as a synecdoche for the whole scandal. I can imagine it being 10x worse on severity, but not 100x worse, so I think 1000x is exaggerated. "It was just men paying underage chavettes for sex, nothing serious" is a pathetic excuse that would cover most (but clearly not all) of the UK grooming gang victims in the same way it does Epstein's.
The fact that nobody who mattered cold-shouldered Epstein before his first conviction, and almost nobody did so even after it, indicates that either Epstein was concealing the more egregious behaviour (i.e. he only pimped out the 17-year-olds) or that elites don't consider sexual exploitation of underage chavettes a big deal (which is worryingly plausible - unlike the sports coach cases, there is no way your daughter could have ended up a Rotherham or Epstein victim if you are a functional normie, let alone an actual elite).
This is property of all most classifications, even non-biological. If you could live for millions of years, you could observe speciation too, and at each point it might seem that differences are negligible (until they aren't).
Slicing race more finely, in terms of geographic origin (e.g. "ethnicity"), fixes some
No it doesn't. You can tell apart a Swede from an Yoruba instantly but telling apart a Dane from a Swede would be slightly better than random guess.
Austronesians discovered unpopulated Madagascar about 1.5 kyears ago, but solid majority of ancestry in today's population is African -- Austronesians couldn't resist malaria, but Africans could. Only some highlander populations in Madagscar have slim Asian majority. This is very much unlike European colonization of Americas, where Europeans were able to take over peoples who had high population agricultural societies -- because diseases were killing natives but had much less effect on Europeans.
and especially generalizes poorly to any given individual (especially recently mixed-race ones).
What does that mean? There is large and growing amount of mixed-raced people, but, say, most of population of China and India isn't product of recent hybridization. It's possible to DNA analyze any resident of China and India and determine if they have or do not have >5% DNA from Sub-Saharan Africans of Australoids.
I would agree that race has little meaning for f2 hybrids, but then if we compare Chinese-English f2 hybrids and Papuan-Yoruba f2 hybrids, they would be different in very systemic manner!
ABigGuy4U
4d ago
Basically the scenario outlined in Michel Houellebecq’s novel Submission where Europeans don’t put up any fight at all and basically consent to their own Islamization.
EverythingIsFine
Well, is eventually fine
4d ago
Oh please, why don't you try and apply some reading comprehension, eh?
The definition of race is relevant only because the original claim - "racism is the default state of humanity" invokes it indirectly (you can't have racism without race). The obvious implication is that by racism they meant our current definition, and as I demonstrated, the current definition doesn't apply to the past very well at all. Thus the claim is false.
If you want to be incredibly pedantic about race not existing, fine, let me rephrase: race is fundamentally incapable of being defined with any kind of real rigor. Happy?
We still have to recognize that (the modern idea of) race has more of the properties of a social construct than it does the properties of some innate, rigorous, underlying biological truth. Sure, fine, it exists on a continuum or something, but this is very much a "category made for man, not man for the categories" kind of situation. The fact most data collection about them is done via self-identification is more revealing that it would at first appear. The fact that even a single mixed-race child doesn't fit in either category is revealing. The fact that you somehow think that race can be determined with high accuracy based on physical features also belies how you've been psy-opped by modern society into putting great faith into something fundamentally illogical - it leads to the opinion that race is purely determined and exclusively defined in terms of how others see you. That's contradictory!
istinetz
4d ago
If a funny guy is with a beautiful girl, in a way he’s exchanged his jokes for her tits. But I find this far more pleasant and acceptable than if he had used actual dollars (if he’s a successful comedian and she doesn’t find him funny).
Money is the universal medium of value. Can't we say that I exchange my data science skills for her beauty?
Be polite, please.
Edit: now I see the other drama going on. To be clear, your opinion is perfectly defensible. Presenting it in a mocking, inflammatory way is the only problem.
ABigGuy4U
4d ago
The Warren Commission studiously avoided ever interviewing Jack Ruby because... BECAUSE THEY JUST DIDN’T NEED TO OK??
Throwaway05
4d ago
Replied elsewhere but in sum, the politics is spot on.
The actual events is umm more condensed (a single day isn't usually that interesting, but a whole month?). Obviously later season events are a bit different.
The competence level is higher than average, especially for the students but it is not out of the realm of possibility for a good group at a high end institution. Independence is a bit much though.
Some inaccuracies but kinda not a lot (and importantly on Meddit you'd see some arguing on "inaccuracies").
The most important part is the vibe and the personalities which....phew. Oh my god it is spot on.
At times really rewarding and people feel seen, at other times...tough.
We'd play a game where we try and see which doctor we most represent and most people have a strong connection to one of the archetypes.
RoyGBivensAction
Zensunni Scientologist
4d ago
Fun Friday music: OUT DEMONS OUT (weirdo hippie music by the Edgar Broughton Band covering The Fugs)
The Edgar Broughton Band was a British blues band who had an early entry to the mashup genre by combining Captain Beefheart's "Dropout Boogie" and the Shadows' "Apache" into "Apache Dropout." They recorded a live album at Abbey Studios in late 1969, but the only song released at the time was "Out Demons Out," which is a cover of The Fugs' "Exorcising the Demons Out Of the Pentagon." The rest of the live album isn't very good (it was released in full in 2004 and is available on YT), but "Out Demons Out" is a fun piece of schizo hippie weirdness.
self_made_human
Grippy socks, grippy box
4d ago
My novel is up to 248k words and change. That's almost the length of the original Game of Thrones, and half the length of the entire LOTR trilogy.
Huh. It's the first time I've checked, and I genuinely wasn't keeping track. I guess I shouldn't feel so bad about the inconsistent update cycle when there's around 20 hours of material to read, which I've definitely spent hundreds writing.
I certainly don't feel like I'm near a conclusion, the main reason I opted for a web serial format is that it frees me from worrying about word count, and I can give every chapter and concept room to breathe.
Throwaway05
4d ago
I am a doctor and an extremely anti-woke consumer of media (although if it's good...it's good).
The Pitt didn't bother me.
The reason is that most woke stuff kills verisimilitude (think fantasy filled with black people in clearly Northern Europe).
However in this case this stuff is adding verisimilitude because that's how the field is. Especially at a teaching hospital and especially the trainees are crazy far left (because it's part of the admission package and curriculum) or are just good at pretending so they don't get ostracized.
A small sample is the TV in the surgical lounge - we abuse trainees all the time (unfortunately), if you fuck up suturing? You will go home crying. Put a subjective finding in the objective section of your two minute patient presentation at 4am? Crying.
In this sort of environment the trainees still feel comfortable changing the TV from Fox (its always that) to MSNBC and then breaking it/hiding the remote/locking it/whatever.
Testing123
4d ago
You’re actually underselling the wokeness of the Pitt. Some mildly SPOILERY events:
-
A black woman comes into the hospital with extreme pain. A white doctor thinks she is faking the pain to get painkillers, but a non-white doctor comes in and declares that she has sickle cell anemia and really is in pain. -
Later on, a white main comes into the hospital with extreme pain. The white doctors believe him, but a non-white doctor correctly infers that he’s a drug addict. -
A white family has a kid with measles because they didn’t get him vaccinated. They then delay treatment almost to the point of the kid dying because the mother “does her own research” with blogs. -
A white man in the waiting room is repeatedly rude and causes escalating problems because he has to keep waiting to be seen by the doctors while more injured people get treatment before him. At one point, the white man complains about other people getting treatment with his tax dollars. Later, the white man punches a female administrator in the face and says something MAGA-y. -
A white woman in the waiting room initiates a fight with someone because the latter person is wearing a hospital mask. IIRC, the white woman even screams something about Fauci lying. -
An obese woman comes in with a vague problem. A doctor tells her to lose weight and the obese woman gets upset. Another doctor comes in, finds the real problem (which isn’t related to obesity) and scolds the first doctor for being fixated on the obesity. -
A very old black guy comes into the hospital and prompts a speech by the main white doctor about how a group of black doctors made some important medical discovery 50 years ago that is underappreciated today.
This is just off the top of my head, I’m sure I’m missing a bunch of these.
Chrisprattalpharaptr
Ave Imperaptor
4d ago
You would not be the first non-right wing extremist person to fail to engage with the direct 1:1 mirror rhetoric you would otherwise extol as just and noble. Where the forlorn elements of reality are laid bare.
No; your example has the valency inverted. The left-wing equivalent to 'Black people are an invasive species' is @AlexanderTurok writing that MAGA people are classless retards non-elite human capital who are too dumb to go to college or get a job or do anything beyond get fat on fast food and daytime television, regardless of what he claims his politics are.
And look at the amount of seething every time Mr. Turok writes a top-level post.
AnonymousActuary
4d ago
interesting - We've enjoyed our guardian bikes a decent amount - what's the pitch with priority and woom?
EDIT: lighter weight? More expensive so just generally better? Our 5 year old is struggling a bit on hills though is very good at pedaling. 3 year old still working on balance with pedals.
VoxelVexillologist
Multidimensional Radical Centrist
4d ago
I've seen a few YouTube folks commenting that the required budget to make a "real quality" film these days is surprisingly small. Technology has shrunk lots of things -- good cameras are affordable, decent CG and editing is doable on commodity machines, LED lighting is lighter and doesn't require huge generators and added cooling. Good screenwriting can't have changed in difficulty, can it?
But at the same time, it doesn't feel like we're in the promised golden age of DIY cinematic content. And there are plenty of folks making other sorts of videos, even really well produced ones. So I'm not quite sure what's missing.
self_made_human
Grippy socks, grippy box
4d ago
The subreddit is in a frozen state, with the only posts being Nara's links to our AAQC roundups. I wasn't keeping track of the subscriber count, so I don't know if 19k is a jump or just what we had when we turned off the lights.
Corvos
4d ago
This is basically what happened with anime, right? Loads of people have switched from American stuff to Japanese stuff. But for various reasons that hasn't been interpreted as competition or a cultural signal.
5434a
4d ago
Copy and paste the following to "Custom CSS" in your settings:
.active.arrow-up::before {
color: #bd2130;
}
.active.arrow-down::before {
color: #0062cc;
}
Does anyone know how to hide only my own comment score?
AnonymousActuary
4d ago
just noticed this too - went to check the subreddit and it has 19k readers?? Since when? Is it just a bot paradise haha
TheAntipopulist
Formerly Ben___Garrison
4d ago
Buddy. Pal. Lemme level with you here.
Please don't be patronizing like this.
you did ask for an explanation of why you get downvoted so much.
I never asked for this, I asked if he had an idea why his post wasn't downvoted. The two are not congruent. It seems like you wanted to use this as an excuse to go "Oh boy, let me tell you why your posts suck. Buddy. Pal."
But OK, I'll bite. Maybe I'll get something out of this. But to do this well, we really need examples. Could you link an example of one of my posts that you think most egregiously exemplifies the behavior you're talking about? I can put forward this discussion that I linked earlier in the thread, but I'm not sure if you think that qualifies.
SSCReader
4d ago
But this poor family made a terrible decision because they've been lied to about reality their entire lives. They thought they could take the fruit of generations of convicted felons, and rescue him from his genetic destiny, because they didn't believe it was real.
Again though this isn't the point because 1) You can't tell as an infant what his genetic destiny was or is or how impacted it was by malnutrition, or fetal alcohol syndrome, or a drug addicted mother, or lead or what have you. And how much of that can be overcome. No-one can. Because there are plenty of adopted kids from "bad" parents who do in fact go on to live good if not great lives. No-one can tell in advance. Again someone has to raise them because we are not going to kill them. and 2) Were they lied too? Are you sure the social workers and so on involved with the adoption did not say "hey you know this is going to be difficult? You know adopting someone from this background, they may well have unknown issues? They're likely underweight malnourished that is going to have potentially long term consequences, to health and behavior? and so on and so forth.? Because in my experience the main issue is that prospective adoptive parents don't take warnings seriously, not that they are not given them. 3) You are robbing these adoptive parents of their agency. You claim that they were lied to, that they didn't understand, but they're adults. They made a choice, a good moral choice, that sounds like it hurt them long term, I am sympathetic to that. I spent enough time working in social care to really understand that. The moral imperative of blank slatism did not rob them of anything. They chose of their own free will to take on a moral burden. They sound like good people. But moral burdens have costs. If doing the moral thing was easy, everyone would do it. If they think it is too much for them, and have to hand the child back, then I won't judge them for that, because at least they tried. But the child did not choose to be brought into their home. They chose it. It is their responsibility until that point. He is not in any way invasive. He's damaged by the sound of it. That isn't the same thing. And he may well be so damaged that he needs 24 hour care in a professional setting. That happens. Again believe me, I've seen horrible things, done by parents and by children. I'm not advocating that they must keep the child regardless of the harm he is doing to them.
Blank slatism is nothing to do with this, because you have no way of knowing whether the nurture or nature part was the issue. And you don't know in advance how he will turn out, regardless of his lineage. That's the issue with your position. You build off your assumption that this was predictable. But most adopted kids, even black ones, even damaged ones, do in fact go on to lead reasonable lives. Yes with more difficulties and more criminality statistically. But unless you are literally going to kill them as children, they MUST be raised somehow. And adoptive families seem to give the best possible outcomes of the options we have.
This isn't a situation where we either nurture the invasive species or burn it, like if we were dealing with plants. We either nurture it and hope it grows up to have some quality of life for itself and others around it, or we don't nurture it and it will be even more likely to have lesser quality of life and to contribute negatively.
Or to put it another way, even if blank slatism is 100% false. What else can be done? The child must be raised. It's either going to be (in your scenario), be by the original mother (presumably neglectful or abusive, hence the adoption), the state in a facility, or an adopted family. Which of these is MOST likely to lead to some kind of positive outcome for child and society do you think? How can we tell for sure which is best for any given child as an infant? Our current system is to try and get as many adopted or fostered as possible, as this seems to give the kids the best possible chance, and then if we can't, or if they turn out to be too much for the foster/adoptive family we raise them in a group home or similar. And if they are too much for that, then..well there just aren't great options. Institutionalized and drugged or put in juvie or the equivalent really.
What should have been done with the infant in your scenario do you think? What percentage chance of turning out reasonably does he need to have before an adoptive family should be given the option to try?
I do have sympathy for your mother in law as well. Most of my time was in adult social care, so I am intimately familiar with violent adult children and the various broken cycles of attachment and how reluctant/fearful parents can be sometimes to admit that the behavior of their offspring goes beyond just acting out and is actually dangerous criminality. Getting them into care and treatment can be difficult. And of course many parents don't want to call the cops because they (often rightly) think mental illness is not coped well with by the justice system. It's a horrible situation I am sure, and I am sorry your family is experiencing it. If you were in the UK, I would probably have professional contacts who might be able to help. As it is, I'll simply hope that your mother and father in law do realize the extent of the issues before something worse happens.
The paper owned by Rupert Murdoch, a known hive of TurboLibs.
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