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Frankly I don't believe the unemployment rate actually reflects the labor pool in the U.S. A ton of people in the U.S. are not working, or are on disability or some other program that hides their labor.

Prime age (25-54) LFPR is close to an all-time high as well. Overall LFPR is down somewhat from its peak in the early 2000s, but that is overwhelmingly driven by longer education (i.e. far more people going to college) and a generally aging population.

If you constrain the labor supply in one domain while leaving it free in others, it will tend to enable rent-seeking from raise wages for people working in that domain.

Now, this is a universally true statement that would leave all of society dramatically poorer if applied generally and also negatively impacts the workers being excluded. However, if you're narrowly focused on raising the wages of seasonal farm workers without regard for agricultural productivity or the welfare of people who would have done seasonal farm work it makes a degree of sense.

It's the batshit Islamists who have the populace behind them, even if the elites are more moderate.

Jordan and the UAE are monarchies (like the Saudis), so they don't necessarily align to the preferences of the people. I expect Bosnia and Indonesia just haven't reached bottom yet.

Which psychological effect? Psychogenic symptoms and psychogenic relief are two very different claims. What would it take to change your mind?

  1. Unless the probability of you being within sight of a driver is practically zero, you should use your turn signal. And you should try to maintain the habit, anyway.

  2. How often is cross-street visibility good enough to be sure nobody is coming? A "rolling stop" at a stop sign should be fine, but red lights require full-stops.

  3. No, drive with the flow of traffic, up to the speed you think is the safety limit for the conditions.

  4. This varies by location - in some places, the left lane is officially not reserved for passing, but driving below the speed of surrounding traffic is still a dick move.

  5. Not if cutting them off is dangerous, so probably not - slow down and slot in behind them, if that seems safer.

  6. I'm among the majority of drivers who thinks they're an above average median driver.

  7. What is the probability that you're an above average median driver?

Does this mean that, once every last criminal is deported, he will then do sweeps of farms and hotels? Left ambiguous.

It's a potentially difficult policy to execute. Despite the many weird messages various administrations have given illegal immigrants, "Our official policy is to deport you last, but we'll definitely deport you in 2028," would probably be the weirdest. Also, come time to deport them, the citizenry may find them to be the least problematic and most sympathetic illegal immigrants; hospitality workers are necessarily, well, hospitable farm laborers are mostly minding their own business out in the sticks, so long as 99% of the country is concerned.

Can you give an example of a potential EO rule to change this? I don't see the power you're thinking of. Also, hasn't SCOTUS been pretty open to claims of standing by states challenging Federal policy?

Yes, and when Obama was elected he kept Dubya's SecDef along with most of his top generals, and after Obama we had two straight Dem nominees who voted for the Iraq war in the Senate. We did not see politicians who supported the war suffer consequences en masse.

It’s routine for the somewhat secular elites in those countries fight low-level civil wars against islamists, or at least for the batshit islamists to terrorize the "moderate" islamists. The house of islam has always been the house of war.

How is it that we didn't run out of jobs decades ago as population increased?

How do you square this with the existence of moderate, Western-aligned or neutral Muslim states like Jordan, the U.A.E., Bosnia, and Indonesia?

Do you remember the 2006 and 2008 elections? Republicans lost 14 senate seats and 52 house seats, plus the presidency. While there were certainly other issues bogging down the Republicans, their steadfastness in a losing war was the big issue.

road trains

Thank you!

Unless you are saying that there is an exactly 1-1 correspondence between jobs and potential employees, I don’t believe this is accurate. I don’t think you’ve done the work to prove that there would be 500 jobs for 500 employees if there were 30 jobs for 30 employees.

What country has responded to urban aerial bombings with surrender?

The Serbs during the Yugoslav wars come to mind.

As long as Israel and their western support bloc shows absolutely no love or friendship for the Persian people, they're not going to throw the Ayatollah out and replace him with western moderates, they'll replace him with a hopefully more competent Ayatollah.

Possibly, yes, although it’s far from clear to me that a more competent Ayatollah is on offer. Furthermore, I don’t interpret the U.S.’s or Israel’s enmity toward Iran as an expression of enmity toward “the Persian people”; it’s pretty obviously the Islamist revolutionary government that is the issue here. Neither Israel nor the United States have resorted to significant bombing of civilian urban infrastructure within Iran, so far as I am aware. All of the Israeli strikes I’m familiar with have been extremely targeted at Iranian regime leadership, which is in marked contrast to the more indiscriminate bombing campaigns against the Gazans by Israel, or of Iraq and Afghanistan by the United States.

Lump of labor fallacy.

Australia depends very heavily on bulk road transportation to very long distance deliveries, while not having a surfeit of truckers or the interstate infrastructure present in the US. Their solution is “road trains”, consisting of a semi truck, but instead of having one trailer, usually having three to five.

This on its own is just goofy-looking. But road trains also have additional speed limits often slower than normal vehicles (tbf, a good idea), and a lot of the roads they travel have two lanes, one traveling each direction. That would still be fine.

It is culturally normal to pass in those circumstances, so long as not in a no-passing zone. Even when the roads are pretty sandy on the edges. So you have a delta of 5-10kph, a set of trailers that can be 50m long, and you’re going to be potentially playing chicken with incoming traffic for over a minute while the trailers beside you are jerking around.

((And then you also have to worry about the truck driver spotting a kangaroo or a cow on the road in front of him.))

I have no objection to other people using automatic headlights; the mechanism is pretty fail safe. Don’t like them for my own use, but that’s a taste thing.

Well, to also be fair, every Ayatollah since the Shah was overthrown has called for death to America, and we know that the Iranian government, by and large, is on board with this. The grudge certainly runs both ways, but Obama did make some half-assed attempts at normalization and look what that got us.

I kind of feel about Iran the same way I feel about Israel and Palestine - there is a lot of wrongdoing and doublespeak on both sides, but there is one side that really could have peace if they wanted it, but they clearly do not actually want it.

As long as Israel and their western support bloc shows absolutely no love or friendship for the Persian people, they're not going to throw the Ayatollah out and replace him with western moderates, they'll replace him with a hopefully more competent Ayatollah.

They follow Islam. They're not going to throw the Ayatollah out unless he's too liberal for them, which isn't going to happen. Islamic people like Islamic government, the stricter the better.

It's probably not something I should make a habit of, but I feel compelled to give some support to Israel here. Israel didn't steal any land any more than anyone else won or lost land before and after World War II

The difference is that WWII land loss mostly affected belligerents, who had legitimate beefs going back centuries. Israel was built at the expense of Arab villagers who didn't really do anything to anybody. If you get injured in a mass brawl, you can't just go on to maul a random bystander and excuse yourself by saying that everyone in the mass brawl you just came out of suffered injuries.

If Israel is an ethnostate (it probably is), it's not a very good one. Do you think that Nazi Germany would accept having a populace composed of 20% Jews?

I mean, they are clearly working on it. South Africa, generally recognised as pretty evil, always was minority-European.

Even forcibly moving every Gazan out of the area probably would not fix the problem, because they are extremely intent on getting their territory back, and distance does not stop the likes of the Houthis and the Iranians either.

Would it fix the problem on the Israeli side? They have already also grabbed parts of Lebanon (more, recently); how do we figure there would be a real limit to their quest for Lebensraum?

And less famously, not all Iranians are Persians. A good ~30% of Iranians are of Kurdish or Turkic stock, for instance.

Sex (or, to generalize and be more precise, "access to a woman's body" - this includes sexual contact in general and childbearing in particular) is important to men. To the point that it's a necessary component of romantic relationships. Not the only component, but a necessary one. I know this from my own experience of being a man, from my experience of having male friends, from the fact that dating advice (TRP, PUA, etc) and dating apps are a multi-million dollar industry with a mostly male clientele, and just in general, from everything that's ever happened to me in my life. Sex is what men are seeking.

Female bodies are more valuable than male bodies. Women are acutely aware of how in-demand their bodies are. She knows that merely being granted access to your body is not adequate compensation for her granting you access to her body. So she typically wants something else from you as well. Thus the very generalized heading of "goods and services". (To be clear, relatively abstract things like "personality" and "companionship" could also be considered "goods and services").

This does not cover every possible configuration of human interactions. I was careful to qualify that this is only a typical and average type of exchange.

I would care significantly less what they did if I weren't forced to be complicit in it, by way of taxes if nothing else (which also forces me to in fact be okay with some amount of being blown up by Arab terrorists in revenge, because per my own morality I do deserve it); but yes, I do in fact think that a 1:100 valuation, especially from a capable state, is an unacceptable defection against peaceful modernity as I envision it. In my ideal world, every state brazenly implementing such a value function in favour of its own citizens ought to be ganged up on by everyone else, until only countries that assign reasonable value even to foreigners remain. ((1) I'm not sure what sort of ratio I'm okay with; (2) I'm happy if all of Israel's enemies are next, should they prove that they still have such a preference function after Israel has been obliterated. Israel at least has provided circumstantial evidence that their relative valuation is not confined to a handful of countries.) Think of Russia/Ukraine as the usual comparison case - in the case of those two countries, neither actually dares to "treat their enemies as enemies" in the Israeli fashion, because they know full well that being the first to do so would invite massive Western retribution (if Russia does it) or at least a nearly as fatal downturn in Western support (if Ukraine does).

As for (1), it's not just the US. (I'm not American! The USS Liberty episode was just the starkest display of cuckoldry I could think of, and probably more compelling to our American majority.)

And someone with different genetics and life experiences might be able to do so.