domain:abc.net.au
there342
40m ago
I agree with everything you've said. But there's another American tradition that comes into play. Surely you've heard of "reasonable doubt." In a case like this, there seems to be an awful lot of it. Case closed? Well, the idea that reasonable doubt ever gets the appeal that our foundations say it should is pretty laughable, but everything you've listed seems like clear cut reasonable doubt. It's not like this guy went out and sought someone to murder in something that looked like it could have been self-defense, and the risk vs reward of imprisoning someone wrongly as opposed to accidentally letting a nearly-self-defense-but-actually-murder-committer off the hook doesn't really favor a conviction.
orthoxerox
I realized I can change my flair color to Barbie pink
57m ago
I think one of our regulars had a similar opinion, just phrased more palatably: that sexual revolution was a scam. "You are free to have casual sex with anyone, go and embrace your newfound freedom by having sex with everyone, if you don't you're an ally of the reactionaries" is a bait-and-switch just like "you are no longer required to eat only halal food, why do you refuse to try this dog poop?"
FCfromSSC
Nuclear levels of sour
1hr ago
This works up until you discover a pattern of motorists intentionally running over cyclists.
Being "run over" in this case is not a regrettable accident that all parties were trying to avoid. The "protestors" made a general tactic of willfully breaking the law in an effort to force altercations, and the police and authorities let them do it. In numerous cases, including this one, they deliberately escalated the altercations in an effort to intimidate and victimize the law-abiding. It's true that their tactics were trivial to avoid for a large majority of the population, so long as we ignore the small minority they viciously brutalized, which most people were entirely willing to do. That doesn't make it right. Perry's response is straightforwardly preferable, and by no small margin.
orthoxerox
I realized I can change my flair color to Barbie pink
1hr ago
there are plenty of (more) competent people in the security state
This would require a very improbable configuration:
- on one hand, Putin has to be competent enough to surround himself with competent people
- on the other hand, he has to be simultaneously incompetent enough to disregard their advice
- and all these competent people have to be incredibly patient or accepting to tolerate this configuration
You can point at literally Hitler, but he had several centuries of military tradition to rely on. There was an effective floor on the competence of German army generals. At the same time, all other branches of his security state weren't exactly stellar.
MaiqTheTrue
Zensunni Wanderer
1hr ago
True, but there’s a history of leaders who lose wars dying anyway. I think if he’s cornered and he thinks his only options are nukes or being executed, he’ll choose the nukes.
shakenvac
1hr ago
once you've started shooting; why did you stop?
Right boys, it's death-or-glory time, and we're all out of glory.
Mewis
1hr ago
I feel like it's been greatly overshadowed by the drama in Ukraine and Israel. Now I don't know if those things were reasonably predictable in 2021, and it's plausible that Afghanistan would loom larger if events had proceeded differently, but they didn't. I'd also see the case that even if not salient now, Afghanistan started off Bidens reign on a poor note, and may have influenced Russia's decision to invade Ukraine.
Harlequin5942
1hr ago
Civ 1 is very primitive and silly, but I really like the balance of simplicity and immersion in Civ 2. For me, it was the best balance of those two in the series (and in strategy games in general) though I never had time to properly learn Civ III onwards, because by that time I was a postgraduate student and I had very little time to learn new games that I might not enjoy.
RenOS
Dadder than dad
1hr ago
There is a saying for cyclists here, which is widely applicable and succinctly describes what you're talking about: "Saying 'but I had the right of way' does not help after you got run over".
Harlequin5942
1hr ago
I wouldn't want to deny the existence of gholas.
orthoxerox
I realized I can change my flair color to Barbie pink
2hr ago
That's because upper-middle, educated, career-having women are disproportionately Asian
RenOS
Dadder than dad
2hr ago
That's the thing, if anything a successful assassination would make it more likely for the next russian leader to use a nuke, and a failed assassination would make it more likely for Putin to use a nuke. On the other hand reserving these tactics for extreme situations makes them less likely.
RenOS
Dadder than dad
2hr ago
I also have to vote for "seems fishy" here. OF has a known problem that most models aren't actually super-profitable, with two broad exceptions: A tiny number of superstars, and those exploiting parasocial relationships with whales. The former is quite hard and unpredictable. For the latter, the model needs to convince the guys that she isn't just some camgirl, but that she is special. There are obviously many ways to do this, but some of the most popular are "I got exploited in the past and now just trying to survive, this isn't the REAL me", "actually, I'm a virgin/have a low number of physical partners, unlike all those other sluts" or "but I'm really smart". In this essay, she is hitting ALL these simultaneously. She gets a shot at superstardom, and if it doesn't work out, she has the necessary background to still go for the parasocial relationship.
In general given her OF, the essay is also quite hypocritical imo. She is literally exploiting what she is decrying.
self_made_human
Kai su, teknon?
2hr ago
Uh.. I don't think anyone cares.
Maybe conservative Muslims. The girls I knew who got married off in med school had been engaged well before theys started.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
2hr ago
Mearsheimer's argument is not complex:
- Russia has more manpower
- Russia has more firepower
- Therefore Russia will win an attritional conflict in Ukraine
Unlike 'experts' like General Petraeus or Ben Hodges, Mearsheimer actually gets things right. Back in mid-2023 when he wrote that article everyone was hyping the Ukrainian counteroffensive, it promptly sank like a stone because they lacked the mass and firepower to beat the Russians. The war has continued according to Mearsheimer's prognosis. There's no magic trick to achieve victory, you just need mass and firepower. The Russians have it, the Ukrainians have much less. By the way, in 2014 he wrote that while Russia wasn't eager to get immersed in Ukraine and they lacked the power to easily conquer the country. However, Russia would devastate and wreck Ukraine if we continued leading them down the primrose path: https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-the-Ukraine-Crisis-Is.pdf
Lo and behold, he's been proven totally correct on Russian capabilities (they certainly haven't easily conquered the country) and on causal logic, if we keep immersing ourselves in Ukraine Russia will have a very bad reaction and wreck the country.
Imagine calling these guys ridiculous retards with severely lacking analysis and then watching as they're proven right for making the most obvious, straightforward arguments imaginable.
And why should we nuke China's island bases? Our strategy is clearly defensive, it's far easier to present the war to third parties and voters as defensive if we're not the ones attacking. A nuclear first strike against essentially peripheral targets is certainly an interesting proposal, however I'm not quite sure it advances our position.
I am absolutely saving that Tong ruling to respond to crocodile tears about the "free speech" of Hamas supporters.
the majority of those comments accused Tong of posting with the intention of marginalizing and/or insulting the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement (which has sought to raise awareness of George Floyd's killing).
Dean Eldredge imposed the following sanctions on Tong: 1) disciplinary probation; 2) access restriction; 3) mandatory meetings to complete an "implicit bias" program
This country turned into a hysterical parody of East Germany in 2020.
We used to make the Czechoslovakia comparison, but at least "why won't you put up the Workers of The World Unite sign, comrade?" was only an implicit threat.
2D3D
2hr ago
Not much to elaborate. Clueless, nervous, uncommunicative. Unable to initiate conversation,monosyllabic in response, zero cross gender social skills. They never give any indication to any man that they are interested (if they are capable of having any form of interest generated in the first place), cannot parse flirtation or conversation, collapse into shrinking incoherence when the penny drops. These girls would in kinder days be matchmade by the church or their parents, and the normal pattern for them is to be pushed into dating whichever clueless male cell group member is in their church by their friends. Without a church, these women disappear into kdramas and trashy webnovels.
2D3D
3hr ago
What @Forgotpassword says.
High expectation: ridiculous grand gestures of romance as the end point of a horrifyingly long dating process, conspicuous consumerism as a shit test for love, gotta match the girls skincare routine, 7 heads tall
Low expectations: fidelity is practically a sideshow, alcoholism is not a problem, men are presumed to be incompetent caregivers and are not expected to step up to childraising, emotional incompetence is assumed. These lows are actually pretty terrible for relationships but the presumed low emotional competence of asian men thanks to Kdramas is a fucking paradise of calm the men enjoy. Young women openly ventilating emotional meltdowns and expecting understanding/validation is nightmare I hope to never endure again.
ArmedTooHeavily
3hr ago
Just in case you didnt know, the tv show "the pacific" is vased chiefly on that book and is very, very good.
Jiro
3hr ago
It is obvious enough that having protestors surround your car is a threat to your life that nobody should be required to testify that they think it's a threat.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4hr ago
If it was an effective of preventing him from using nukes, they would have done so to prevent or stop the war by now. That killing of leaders doesn't tend to pan out this way is my entire point.
2D3D
4hr ago
In his famous 201 lecture Mearshimer predicted that it would be too stupid for Russia to invade Ukraine because it would look bad for Russia. Mearshimer did not consider Russia to be militarily capable of accomolishing a fait accompli, and thus ruled out Russian hostility as a given. In fact if you look up Mearshimers work prior to the 2022 war, Mearshimer keeps banging on that the USA should focus against China and that securing Russia as an ally was - and still is - of paramount importance. I view his hostility to Ukraine as part of his larger crusade against perceived misplaced priorities of the state department combined with an extremely ruthless calculus of relative power focus: it is inefficient to support weak corrupt states in Russias proximate orbit and it is better to husband resources if not spending it to bribe/secure Russias allegiance.
Mearshimers military analysis is, unfortunately, severely lacking. In his rush to get the west (really just USA) to refocus against China, he emphasizes that Russia is winning and in the face of such inevitability the west should stop wasting time. His sources for Russian inevitable victory are ridiculous retards like Scott Ritter, ArmchairW, BigSerge and fucking moonofalabama. It is an echo chamber of 'russia stronk!' vatniks that stand in contrast to the nafo chuds, and unfortunately for Mearshimer the inevitable victory of Russia is neither evident nor imminent. The longer Russia stumbles over its slow grind in Ukraines east, the more time is wasted on debating artillery shells instead of nuking Chinas island chain airbases.
I threw in the flag early too. Might be bias: I pretty quickly realized I wasn't going to place a high truth value on it.
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