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First - Trump will get Congress on board. He may have to pay yuuge price, but even the biggest doves and biggest morons in Congress know that US trying to overthrow regime and failing means the empire is over and there will be many more challengers in the years to come. There is reason why Russia is hellbent on finishing the SMO on their own terms. If you want to know how international relationships work - go watch the Godfather. So far USA haven't failed in overthrowing a regime after committing the needed forces.
Second - speaking against the special military operation is not treason.
Third - the best time to have dialogue about the war was before and during the protests. The second best was after them. The third best is now.
Fourth - the year is still young. There is chance that the US may actually win with low bodycount.
The Logan Act and saying things on the internet can get to a very stretchy version of a violation. The law is probably too vague even before this stretch but nowadays some dude in Iowa can literally talk to Putin directly on the internet.
Unless he got paid for speaking pro Russian propaganda - I am not sure how the dude in Iowa will be held responsible. You are totally allowed to spew enemy propaganda. Just not commercially.
Ever since Flynn I am paranoid on lawfare and how stretchy something like treason or sedition could be.
Even something small like talking to a Russian bot on a message board telling them “everyone in my house would fight against Trump” would be giving an adversary a small amount of intelligence
News article for whippersnappers who don't remember thislike me
Text of acts admitted to in guilty plea
It was nowhere near that simple, but to be fair, you really had to be there. Once the long-awaited OIG report dropped detailing serious Shenanigans[1], Flynn motioned to withdraw his guilty plea. Here is a supplement that details the misconduct of Covington & Burling LLP, his original lawyers in his case, and here[2] is the supplement that spells out the relevant parts of the FBI and DOJ misconduct in his case. As new evidence, such as the official closing of the Flynn investigation on 1/4/17, and an email documenting an unofficial promise not to prosecute Mike Jr.[3], continued to accumulate, Brandon Van Grack was removed from the case. By May, the DOJ was motioning to dismiss, but even as exculpatory evidence continued to be produced, the circus just kept going.
Revisiting all of this the better part of a decade later, I've had significant difficulty locating the some of the supplements and exhibits that I remember reading that provide even more context, which is frustrating to say the least. It's admittedly possible that they have all blurred together in my memory, as I followed all of that business rather closely. This is a preface to say that what I have linked here is merely what I hope is a decent sampling of the evidence underlying the smorgasbord of bullshit that was the Flynn prosecution. Alas, I have spent the bulk of my evening typing this lone reply rather than attending to my own needs and despite (allegedly) knowing better. More fool me.
[1]. As with all good political documents, the devil is in the details while the executive summary is considerably more...
neuteredtidy. More importantly, Flynn's new counsel had repeatedly filed motions to compel Brady material, aka exculpatory evidence, which the FBI and DOJ both denied existed.[2]. This supplement rebutted the DOJ's downplaying of the OIG report, saying that it wasn't that bad and that it didn't pertain to Flynn, which considering that Flynn was in fact Crossfire Razor,
was a lie"lacked candor" in OIG-speak.[3]. This bit was relevant both because Van Grack denied threatening to prosecute Flynn Jr. and also because he would have been required to report an official agreement, hence the unofficial nature of the offer detailed in the email.
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I feel like the US has lost plenty of times and been fine. Korea had an unsatisfactory stalemate (that still haunts us). Vietnam was a clear loss and retreat. Iraq and Afghanistan were immediate victories followed by long drawn out slogs that no one feels we "won" at.
The 1990 Gulf war was a victory of sorts, but that seems to have happened because we didn't get involved in regime change in Iraq at that time. Otherwise you have to go back to WWII for a clear victory.
Your specific phrase "overthrowing the regime" is kind of a strange victory condition. We have arguably already done that in Iran. Bunch of their leaders dead on day one. There might be a technical continuance of governance, but there is already going to be a different set of people in charge in Iran. And historically our attempts at regime change in the middle east have gone poorly. It's why no one wants us committed to a ground war.
The USA did not lose Vietnam, although the public thinks we did. America concluded(wrongly) that south Vietnam was capable of fending of a north Vietnamese invasion, and declined to bail them out when this turned out not to be the case- the republic of Vietnam was independent for several years without US troops or support, and the commies had promised not to invade in exchange for American withdrawal. Nixon and Kissinger surely knew that they would go back on this promise, but the ARVN fended off a full scale invasion without US support before reshuffling their general staff due to political turmoil and then losing the next round.
Vietnam is weird. People who are like "hurr hurr USA hasn't won a war since WW2" are obviously retarded.
But the USA fought a war for many years with the explicit goal of preventing South Vietnam from being communist. They then made assumptions the ARVN could stand on its own, which was a convenient assumption given the political unrest at home. Regardless of the assumption, they were wrong. You don't get points for saying "okay but at the time we really did believe it". They were wrong, and south Vietnam was taken over by the communists. The war that was fought, the lives that were spent, did NOT achieve the outcome. Full stop. I would call that a strategic loss, despite the numerous and overwhelming tactical victories. I think Clausewitz would agree.
Amusingly, I think this is actually the most important part in this context. Power is exercised much more about belief than kinetic force. That's much more efficient too. The belief of your kinetic power means it doesn't get tested. Once that belief starts to slip, it gets much harder to maintain your power. You still can, especially with lots of kinetic force, but that comes with many costs of its own. It's way way cheaper when everyone respects the big stick, using it a lot sucks, and if absolutely everyone says "fuck you, bring it" you can only hit so many of them...
Vietnam was a strategic loss, that’s true. But also the ARVN did stand on its own until political turmoil in the Republic of Vietnam caused coup-proofing shakeup in the army’s leadership post-US withdrawal, leading to a collapse of the front in the face of the north Vietnamese 1975 offensive- the ARVN had been highly successful with 0 direct US assistance for three years at that point. It would be like if Ukraine suddenly fired all its generals and put a rando in charge who proceeded to lose the war in a matter of weeks.
I know this isn't the point , but this made me chuckle
This would probably be accretive to Ukraine, and would 100% be accretive to Russia. These old-guard Soviet generals are so fucking bad.
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Korea and Vietnam happened during the height of the Cold War, when the world was perceived as bipolar. In a way - some losses here and there were baked in. After the 90s (or 80s - I don't think anyone took seriously the USSR in 1985) - we live in Pax Americana. And one of the things that underpins Pax Americana is that US has mightier military than the next 20 combined.
And while Afghanistan and Iraq could be considered as political losses - the US forces never lost a battle there. I am not even sure that they lost many during the korean and vietnam wars.
Whereas leaving Iran in the hands of the islamic revolution after such fireworks display will be a first of a kind post Cold war.
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I agree with everything you've said, except
I wouldn't call that regime change. I think you'd need substantial change in the policies/views/beliefs/actions in the governance of Iran for it to count as "Regime change". Ending the war right now means the IGRC #100, #101, #101... people step up and get right back to "death to America, death to the Jews" after 24-48 months of rebuilding.
I would not call Venezuela regime change either by that metric. Although it did seem to very much alter the relationship between Venezuela and America's respective "regimes".
Mostly unilaterally, on the part of the United States.
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It's not quite that dire. Grenada and Panama were fairly unambiguous successes and the NATO mission in the Balkans can reasonably be characterized as a success as well.
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Failing in Vietnam and Afghanistan did not end the so-called empire, why would failing to overthrow Iran's government end the empire?
I don't know if I'd go so far to say "it'll end the empire" but the American Empire was in a much stronger place relative to the rest of the world in Afghanistan, and debatably in Vietnam too.
While the USA is still the dominant world superpower, there is definitely a "lull" right now in the perception of that power. The USA is chaotic, it is divided, it is looking increasingly, for lack of a better word, stupider. Europe is starting to wake up again (we'll see if they actually do). China is unequivocally rising, and fast. Russia is fighting a really pathetic war, but the fact it's even being allowed to do that is slightly questionable given how hard we cucked them for nearly 30 years.
If the USA can't even shit on the middle east like it used to, that's a hit to credibility no matter how you slice it. Not a good look when you're already looking a bit extra-chromosome-y already.
Uh, the US is totally shitting on the Middle East right now.
That's true, let me rephrase
"Shit on the middle east to completion"
America striking a "deal" where nothing changes with Iran is the blowing your load too early/whiskey dick/erectile dysfunction of this incredibly tortured metaphor.
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