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Does anyone else feel like we're heading for a good old-fashioned, 2008-tier, financial crash? I recall people bringing up the possibility ever since Covid bucks started rolling out, but even though we were due for one, and even though the money printer was going brrrrr, the crash has so far failed to materialize.
At the time, I was of two minds about this. On one hand, all the libertarian theory I used to subscribe to said money-printing => boom, boom => bust. On the other hand, the problem for me was it never felt like a boom, and I think this is changing now. A key feature of the pre-crash boom is "malinvestment"; capital going into often downright deranged projects, that are later abandoned half-finished. Well, I feel like the datacenter craze qualifies, and with the wave of AI IPOs that are coming just as major indices are changing their rules, to allow for these companies' near-instantaneous inclusion (an investment so good, you can't pass up on it. Literally, if you're American), it seems like we're solidly in the "irrational exuberance" phase.
Add this to the list of things I hope I'm wrong about, because if we get a proper crash, the political fallout is going to be massive. The script writes itself: Trump / tech bros / capitalism bad, even more gay race communism now.
To whitepillers: is there an argument for why I'm wrong that doesn't boil down to "you don't get it, chud, it's the New Economy! The Singularity is just around the corner! All the rules are obsolete!"? This argument is verboten, because this is pretty much what people say with every bubble.
To fellow blackpillers: any ideas on how to brace for impact? Any IT guys here old enough to make it through the dotcom bubble? How did you do it? Any advice you would have given your past self?
I don't know if it'll be 2008-tier, but I'm expecting an ugly correction by the summer of 2027.
I've been expecting a correction since 2021 or so, but I keep being wrong. It feels like we go from one hype to the next without any response from the market when the hype doesn't pan out. Cryptocurrency was going to change everything. NFTs were going to change everything. The metaverse was going to change everything. 3d printing was going to change everything. Hyperloop was going to change everything. Full self driving was going to change everything by 2017!
Sitting here in 2026, I'm about to get in my car that I drive myself. I'm going to buy a new spatula with cash instead of 3d printing a replacement using feedstock that I bought with Bitcoin. The Hyperloop is an expensive joke, metaverse has been wound down amid record-setting layoffs, and NFTs are basically dead.
It seems like the market is fully decoupled from the economy at this point. Everything moves up and down on vibes, and the idea of "uncorrelated assets" shit the bed and died in 2022.
At this point the only solid indicators I have left are interest rates and debt, and both of them are looking increasingly dicey. A lot of very important loans (eg: SoftBank) will by due by the Summer of 2027, and debt collectors are not known for their understanding and gentle forebearance.
I have lived through both the dot com boom and global financial crisis. The claims of AI boosters are not identical to the people caught up in those manias, but it sure rhymes. I'm told that this time it's different. I'm told not to worry about troubling financial signals, because Line Goes Up, and it goes up more than enough to cover the risk. I'm sold an increasingly rosy picture of a hypothetical future mixed into a cocktail with a stark fear of being priced out forever... sorry, a stark fear of "becoming part of the permanent underclass". I was back in 2008 for a minute.
In both cases, I just kept my head down, kept saving, kept investing, and held a death grip on my job. It probably set me back in terms of total lifetime career prospects, but I was also never homeless or counting individual beans to see how long I could go before malnutrition kicked in either. I didn't buy a house until 2012, when I had saved enough to put down a full 20%.
Right now, I'm still contributing to my 401(k), Roth IRA, and HSA investments for the tax advantage, but I'm being more conservative in my taxable brokerage. I like Dimensional and Avantis a lot. The expense ratios are higher than pure passive choices like VTI, but they have a few additional filters that seem to help against the absolute worse of the current debt bonanza. I'm also increasing my bond and securitized debt exposure. It has its own risks, but debt is senior to equity when shit hits the fan. I'd get into metals, but I don't understand those markets well enough for it to be anything other than a gamble.
Beyond that, I'm trying to keep my spending down, and trying to make myself Highly Visible to management. It's pretty clear at this point that almost all layoffs are done on vibes, so if I can make myself part of the c-suite's emotional in-group, I think I have better odds. Hopefully I can speed run a fully funded retirement, then just keep working until I can't anymore.
Add on "Prediction markets are going to change EVERYTHING" (mostly used for sports gambling, unfortunately), the Internet of Things is going to change EVERYTHING (I will now spend EXTRA money for a toaster that isn't wifi connected), OMG we might have found a room-temperature superconductor, VR/AR tech is going to blow your mind, Crypto hype moved from Blockchain hype, to DApp Hype, to DAO Hype, to NFT Hype, to Stablecoin Hype, and it was all illusory.
WHAT THE FUCK WAS WEB3?
Its funny, I MOSTLY could spot when a trend was more hype than real.
I sold all my crypto in 2019. Never bought an NFT. I thought Metaverse would become something but nobody had a good vision for it, 3D printing is indeed a cool, useful tech but don't bet the farm on it.
But I feel sketchy now because all those hype cycles leave you suspicious if the next big thing is actually arriving or there's just people who make a lot of money if you believe it is.
SpaceX seems to be real, but maybe still overhyped.
GLPs ARE the real deal, and there's some other neat drugs in the pipeline.
Smartphones continue to be a boon... if you can avoid all the gamified apps designed to suck your attention and money.
Quadcopter tech is pretty damn mature now, and is finally achieving some market penetration.
It feels absurd to focus on that right now, when the way things are going we're either going to get crash and hyperinflation wiping out a ton of that nest egg, or a new industrial revolution that goes exponential and so even modest market holdings will make you wealthy over the next 10 years.
The ONE thing that doesn't seem likely to happen is just steady 7% growth in the market (on average) over the next 25 years.
Around 5 years ago, I saw part of a huge tech webinar where a woman, presumably SF based, was talking in a very emotionally charged tone about how she would be really down on the world and its future if not for the promise of Web3 and its salvationist glory. I had no idea what that could possibly mean at the time. What difference could it make to real lives? Was I missing something important? Time would tell, I figured.
I don't think I was missing much. The promise of web3 was "decentralization" and getting away from the control of the biggest tech companies by using blockchain networks to build sites. But the companies operating the stablecoins and whatever, were mega companies like Coinbase. And the movement was marked by really low ease of use (complex seed phrases, "gas fees," etc.), and massive grift. Much like nfts, a few early ponzi schemers made obscene sums while many suffered.
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What else am I going to do with it? My house is just about paid off. I've got several months worth of food and water. My car is in good shape. I'm pretty well set for guns and guitars.
Hookers and blow aren't really an option either. I don't do drugs, and I live out in the sticks where the quality of prostitute is so low that I'd pay them to not fuck me.
Solid question, in that case.
Could do what I did. Buy a classic muscle car. Gives you something to work and fun as hell to drive, especially on backroads.
LARP as a moonshiner.
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