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naraburns  nihil supernum  7mo ago (text post)   28895 thread views

Israel-Gaza Megathread #1

This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.

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Israeli Invasion Plans Target Gaza City and Hamas Leadership

From the New York Times’ report on the coming invasion (emphasis mine):

Tens of thousands of Hamas gunmen are thought to have entrenched themselves inside hundreds of miles of underground tunnels and bunkers beneath Gaza City and the surrounding parts of northern Gaza. Israeli military leaders expect that Hamas will attempt to impede their progress by blowing up some of those tunnels as Israelis advance above them, and by exploding roadside bombs and booby-trapping buildings.

Hamas also plans to ambush Israeli forces from behind by emerging suddenly from hidden tunnel openings dotted across northern Gaza, according to a Hamas officer who was not authorized to speak to the news media.

To make it easier for its soldiers to operate, the Israeli military’s rules of engagement have been loosened to allow soldiers to make fewer checks before shooting at suspected enemies, the three Israeli officers said, without giving further details.

The invasion was initially planned for the weekend, but was delayed by a few days at least in part because of weather conditions that would have made it harder for Israeli pilots and drone operators to provide ground forces with air cover, the officers said.

In addition to infantry, the Israeli strike force will include tanks, sappers and commandos, the officers added. The ground troops will be given cover by war planes, helicopter gunships, aerial drones and artillery fired from land and sea.

Hard not to see this turning into an unimaginable bloodbath. Tens of thousands of fighters? That tunnel guy’s YouTube video suggested they’d be extremely difficult to root out. I suppose all the hostages are living on borrowed time, if still alive. It promises to be a harsh look at the reality of modern urban warfare against a highly entrenched foe.

Are they really going to try a Fallujah? I wouldn't want to be a grunt on either side. This is going to be hell.

I will be amazed if there isn't some kind of tunnel-gassing or some other tactic used to kill the people in them before going in. International treaties be damned. Screw going down into those things.

Israel probably doesn’t have the capacity to clear tunnels by chemical warfare, and won’t in time to help the invasion.

The reason is simple- quantity. Successful chemical warfare requires tons and tons and tons of the stuff, even in a confined space. Israel almost certainly doesn’t have that much, we’d know if they did because it’s sufficiently capital-intensive that you can’t hide it. And while it has a relatively short time frame to produce(after all, civilian chemical plants produce similar chemicals all the time), we’re still talking about months and months. And Israel wants to go in soon.

but israel/IDF had known for years if not decades about these tunnels. You are saying they have prepared for this sort of thing at all, even as an contingent solution?

Their entire policy was based on not doing what they’re about to try to do.

I will be amazed if there isn't some kind of tunnel-gassing or some other tactic used to kill the people in them before going in. International treaties be damned. Screw going down into those things.

Several times during WWII, the US Army was faced with similar situations involving well-fortified Japanese emplacements. In some of these instances, like Fort Drum in Manila, combat engineers pumped in thousands of gallons of mixed diesel fuel and gasoline, followed by a timed incendiary charge. I think the more modern solution typically involves thermobaric weapons. I'm not aware of any treaty since that would prohibit either, but both seem like painful ways to go out.

Yes, I would think something like this is better. If you use any type of poison gas, after you deploy it, you will eventually have to clean it out, make it safe, and check out what's in there. A major pain in the ass and high risk of friendly casualties if you don't do it perfectly. If you use flammables or explosives, then you know it's safe after the stuff goes boom and it has a little time to cool down.

Goes along with the argument I read somewhere else - poison gas isn't used anymore because it isn't a very good weapon, not because its effects are so horrible or it's banned by treaty. It was probably possible to ban by treaty because it's not a very good weapon more than being horrible.

A good rule of thumb is that if US signs some treaty about avoiding given type of weapons, it means it’s ineffective, but if it doesn’t, it is useful and practical. Compare, for example, chemical weapons, which US agreed to not use, with land mines or cluster munitions, which very much are a part of US arsenal, despite existence of treaties banning these: US is just not a signatory to these.

Even more cynically, the treaties that US is not a signatory to, simply are not worth much in the first place: the signatories to these simply don’t expect to fight a serious war that would require using these, so commitment to not use them is not worth much, because they will likely disregard their obligations soon as they do find themselves in one. See, for example, Ukraine, which happily uses these, despite being a signatory to Ottawa treaty.

Yep, if you light the chemicals on fire, it's perfect legal and it works even better. Not too many airtight doors will withstand a fuel-air explosion in the next compartment.

How much ordinance would it take to turn the entire Gaza strip into Verdun? I doubt that Israel has enough in its stockpile (unless we're counting the nukes), but it could theoretically be done.

My guess is that Israel will advance to the sea along a narrow front through the middle of the strip, cutting the insurgents fortified in Gaza City off from supplies and humanitarian aid being brought in from the South. How many weeks worth of provisions do you think Hamas has stocked up underground?

I did the math before out of curiosity to see how many 155mm shells it would take to cover all of the Gaza strip with the lethal radius of at least one shell's explosion. It came out to around 52 million shells. If all 250 of Israel's m109 howitzers fired at their sustained rate of fire of one round per minute (and assuming no need for maintenance etc) it would take them around 144 days. I was looking at this just to get some idea of the scales involved in all this.

Judging by satellite imagery, there's enough farmland south of Gaza that the front doesn't have to be that narrow. There are towns like Al-Mughraqa in the way, but they are similar enough to Donbass suburbs that IDF could hire some Wagner instructors or even point teams.

Yeah, this is looking like Mariupol 2: No Electricity Boogaloo.

Is it possible that Israel have developed a smart even if cruel way to deal with tunnels with minimal costs to Israeli life?

Is it possible to gather data from the shelling to map them?

If they don't it will be bloodbath for Israel.

We shall see soon enough.

Apparently even chemical weapons / gas is unviable because the tunnels have airtight doors.

I'd still like to think Bibi is smarter than this, and that this is just bluffing. I recall him saying, years ago, that a key part of his strategy against Iran was them thinking "there's a crazy guy in Jerusalem willing to do anything".

Judge people by their actions. So far, Israel's tactic has been to starve, bomb and wear out the civilian population of Gaza. The endgame is clearly a massive ethnic cleansing. There are also rumors the US has offered Egypt monetary benefits to host at least a million Gazans in a "tent city". If I were Bibi, I'd act just like he has thus far. It's the smart, cost-effective strategy. Clearly, the status quo cannot continue and Israel is trying its level best to get rid of the Gaza civilian population. But doing so, even with the backing of the US, is harder than you might think given 24/7 media.

One last thing. One theme I've harped on is Bibi rhetorically boxing himself in. He has now set expectations very high that he may simply be forced to do things he knows are foolish because it would end his political career otherwise. I understand this sounds extraordinarily callous that a man in his position would be willing to sacrifice many lives to save his political skin, but I am no longer discounting any possibility.

Bad as his position is now, his position if 5,000 or 10,000 or more young Israeli men die in the invasion of Gaza will be much, much worse.

Hand to heart, what do you think his odds of remaining in the upper echelons of Israeli politics are? He has failed catastrophically, but if he executes the «flawed but reliable tough-minded leader carrying us through the uncertain times of crisis» move well… I am not sure it'll work. But also, that's much of his expertise and genius.

He needs the core security minded Likud voter, still.

If he can successfully win in Gaza with minimal loss of Israeli life, he might be OK. But that seems unlikely if he commits to an invasion.

Doesn't Bibi have that Berlusconi quality where you can get rubbished a dozen times but still bounce reliably back in time? Then again he's 73, but Berlusconi managed to hang on to some power almost to the end, too.

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