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ZorbaTHut  1yr ago (text post)   35352 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 26, 2022

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/r/stupidpol is abuzz with news of both NordStream pipelines being damaged, in what mainstream sources openly speculate to be an attack:

Massive drop in pressure – Nord Stream 2 pipeline apparently partially destroyed

There was an incident on the Russian Baltic Sea pipeline, as confirmed by the Danish shipping authority. The operator Gascade speaks of a sharp drop in pressure in the tube. An accident is considered unlikely. The timing of the accident suggests sabotage.

Stupidpol being stupidpol, blames it all on the west (either the US or UK)... but it feels like the kind of have a point? Russian performance in the war doesn't exactly scream competence, so it would be surprising, if they pulled something like this off, so deep in NATOs turf.

When we were discussing the coming winter, some people were saying "the European gas storage is filled up, it'll be fine", but isn't the gas storage more like a buffer, designed to take advantage of the decreased demand over the summer, to even out the increased demand in winter, working on the assumption that there will still be a constant supply of gas coming in? Does this change the calculus at all?

Russian performance in the war doesn't exactly scream competence, so it would be surprising, if they pulled something like this off, so deep in NATOs turf.

Why'd they be sabotaging their own pipeline ?

Biden himself hinted USA is going to do "bring about an end to Nord Stream 2" and declined to elaborate.. A submersible drone bomb was found on site couple of years back.

Biden himself hinted USA is going to do "bring about an end to Nord Stream 2"

It'd be redundant (and risky) for USA to sabotage Nord Stream 2, as it was killed and buried the day Russia attacked Ukraine. Trying to continue the certification would be a political suicide in Europe unless Russia faces a complete regime change. It's Nord Stream 1 and the related continued dependence on Russian gas that has been the problem.

Trying to continue the certification would be a political suicide in Europe

Political suicide in what sense?

In my view, current inflation pressures already make it palatable domestically across majority of countries. Perhaps less so after winter, if little additional pain is felt by average person, in contrast with current fears. I'd guess the opposite. Internationally, I fail to see the issue, beyond US pressure.

I get it that you don't get it, but what they don't tell you is that at the moment there isn't enough LNG exports in the world to keep the heat on in Europe and industry working.

That is, it'd take 40% of world's LNG market, where traditionally EU didn't figure much, and the currently the entire spot market for LNG.

Let's not forget Biden was against increasing fossil fuel production.. Although that may be changing.

Which Russians know because unlike journalists they can do elementary research, so they were almost certainly banking on getting some sort of deal during or after the winter. Rolling blackouts, possibly outright blackouts and a collapsing economy which is going to translate into everyone getting poorer are likely going to force Europeans to rethink things.

By 2025 there's going be enough LNG terminals to allow for keeping the lights on, at a much higher cost than previously, but until then, EU is screwed.

Of course, this is assuming no one "smokes around flammables" to use the annoyingly stupid idiom for war-related sabotage now in vogue. The Iranian copy of a Israeli suicide drones Russia is now using in Ukraine has a 20 kg warhead. Almost certainly wouldn't play nicely with LNG infrastructure which tends to go 'boom' in a impressive manner. It's also quite hard to detect and impossible to defend against unless you're willing to station automated flak guns all around critical infrastructure.

Of course, this is assuming no one "smokes around flammables" to use the annoyingly stupid idiom for war-related sabotage now in vogue

Oh come on now, have a sense of humor.

You are repeating the anglo consensus on the subject without taking into account that European politicians don’t play within the Anglo consensus. Germany has been very clearly trying to keep the Nord Stream open. Scholz posed for pics in front of the freaking turbine like a month ago! I have no clue who did this or if this was sabotage but it’s pretty obvious that in the winter Germany (and many others) would very likely push for resuming gas imports under some pretext. Scholz had a 90 minute phone call with Putin like two weeks ago and we know basically nothing of what they talked about. Russian gas isn’t some moral question, it’s an existential threat to European economy.

Why would I as a Finn care about some Anglo consensus? Yes, Scholz has been trying to sell out the rest of EU (although not nearly to the same extent as Schröder) but he’s far from having the final say about Nord Stream 2.

Why would I as a Finn care about some Anglo consensus?

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Rr8ljRgcJNM

he’s far from having the final say about Nord Stream 2.

It is a direct pipeline between Russia and Germany. I would expect Russian and German sovereign governments to have the final say about what happens with it. After all we are fighting the war in Ukraine because we care about the world order with sovereign states right?

Anyway. Now very conveniently nobody has anything to say about the pipelines anymore.

It is a direct pipeline between Russia and Germany. I would expect Russian and German sovereign governments to have the final say about what happens with it.

And Germany did have the final say. Their say was 'no,' despite much internal twisting, in part because many Germans recognize that Germany has far more interests, economic and political, than a Russian pipeline that was going to be vulnerable to sabotage in the midst of a war where the Russians are trying to use energy supplies as a weapon to break European solidarity and the alliance.

After all we are fighting the war in Ukraine because we care about the world order with sovereign states right?

Which 'we' here? Many would argue the Germans are not fighting the war, and that the German government has been trying to get out of even supporting the war beyond bare minimum expectations of its public and diplomatic partners. (IE, the helmet fiasco.)

That is certainly a sovereign state's right, but sovereign states can also be pressued by the opinion of other sovereign states. Sovereignty is not an opinion-free zone, and if you care about other people's opinion for your own sovereign interests- such as not being alone and losing influence within your own economic block- it is your sovereign right to weigh those opinions and pressures accordingly.

Anyway. Now very conveniently nobody has anything to say about the pipelines anymore.

Quite convenient for the German government, in its own way, as now they don't have to treat the prospect of a Nord Stream 2 start as a serious option at international political cost, and can avoid the domestic political cost of rejecting it.

Eh. I think there's a spectrum. The German government is trying to avoid paying the cost of supporting Ukraine as much as possible, because that cost will be internally unpalatable. That doesn't translate to rapprochment with Russia, which is broadly a domestic nonstarter.

What inflation per year and how many hours of winter rolling blackouts do you think are going to be needed until Germans reconsider buying gas from Russia ?

Hell, in this situation they may even start reconsidering nuclear power. Which, let's remind everyone against used to produce as much energy yearly as all the nat-gas plants were producing in recent years.

I could see an advantage in having an excuse not to deliver gas, even when the Germans ask for it (see the turbine drama), but yeah, this feels over the top. The point of withholding the delivery, is the implicit promise it will resume once you get what you want. If you actually can't deliver the gas, you don't have leverage.

I doubt Putin would have any difficulty coming up with excuses for not delivering the gas or well... just not doing it without any excuse. What are the Europeans going to do? Complain to the manager? It

I feel like the real question now is if this ocean sabotage thing might escalate. There is tons of critical infrastructure beneath the oceans entirely vulnerable to sabotage.

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