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Notes -
Ezra Klein saying BIden should step aside because of age, and a new candidate be chosen at the convention:
https://old.reddit.com/r/ezraklein/comments/1as537m/democrats_have_a_better_option_than_biden/
There's a link to the podcast episode in the (heavily downvoted) Reddit discussion above.
Quite frankly, that would be quite a stupid thing for Democrats to do. Last time that happened was 1968, with notable results. He then lists alternative candidates such as AOC, Newsom, Cory Booker, Gretchen Whitmer, and a bunch of randoms I've never even heard of, though his top pick is Kamala Harris.
What material does the GOP have on him to make him advise such obvious electoral suicide? Harris would never win, but passing over the black, female VP would come with tons of blowback. Plus all the infighting at the convention would make the DNC look like a party in chaos when they're trying to portray themselves as the stable, responsible alternative to MAGA craziness.
Getting rid of Biden this late in the game is simply not a winning move.
My advice: Get Biden's carcass over the finishing line in November, have Harris step in as replacement sometime early in 2025, and then start figuring out what to do about 2028 with four years breathing room, not a few months of lead time.
In this election, both candidates are pretty well hated by the public.
If you say to someone, "you can have Donald Trump, Joe Biden, or the what's in the mystery box", many people will answer "The box. The BOX!"
https://youtube.com/watch?v=XsNIFD7TxwU
In this environment, swapping in a cipher like Michelle Obama at the last minute starts to seem like a pretty good idea! Let's not forget that Joe Biden was sort of in that same position 4 years ago. People didn't know much about him, he didn't stand for anything, and that was good!
Of course, a 3rd Obama term would be just like a 2nd Biden term. All the same people would be running the show. But there are lots of Americans who (wrongly) think that the problem with the Biden administration is Biden. It doesn't take too many people to fall into this trap to move the needle. I think Michelle Obama would capture enough of the middle to win by 10 points.
Now, Michelle Obama might not do it because she's smart enough to realize her reputation will go from great to dogshit in 18 months. But they could find someone. Hopefully someone who just says buzzwords like "hope" without getting into the specifics of how they're going to raise your taxes to give more money to people who don't work.
I don't think Michelle is interested in the job. She's never given off those political ambition vibes to me, unlike Hillary who couldn't wait for the chance to be the anointed Empress and tried three bites at the cherry (she was unlucky Obama ran the first time, and her campaign did not like that at all). If Hillary thought there was any chance under heaven that she'd replace Biden, she'd be shoving Joe aside so hard he'd end up in Australia.
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Biden's been in office making bad decisions for decades. He tried to get a precursor to the Patriot Act passed years before 9/11. In my extremely biased view he had many decades of examples of how to be a bad Democratic politician.
Perhaps you should re-evaluate based on him ascending to the presidency? He is an example of an excellent Democratic politician, even if such a thing succeeding is bad for the country.
Right: he's a 36 year Senator, then two term VP and now President. He's the best of their best by some measure that accounts for extreme seniority.
He's an example of their worst by my biased accounting against the Democratic party elite. "Consistently wrong for decades" and also ascending to the highest offices. Great for him, massively enriching to his entire extended family, bad in some larger sense by my estimation.
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I think this is a more suitable video.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=hXOjyv4d998?feature=shared
There's not really a plausible alternative to the two.
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Biden had a decades-long political career and was a former VP.
Not sure if anyone is seriously floating Michelle Obama, but I think Kamala Harris would be an absolute disaster.
Serious in the 'haha just kidding unless' since. No one is 'serious' since no one would 'seriously' try to directly unseat the sitting President, but if Biden were to fall for completely unrelated reasons, Michelle Obama would be one of the most serious contenders in a convention-negotiated candidate.
Among her positives, she has the name-recognition, is broadly associated with positive things/better times, is directly connected with the Obama-wing of the party which remains the dominant institutional actor of the party, and due to her 'inexperience' would be expected to/can credibly offer significant policy influence to the wings of the party in terms of appointments, more so than a more factionally-locked candidate might. She's also- significantly- not in a current position of importance/would not derail political careers/induce risk of election loss by stepping down as an incumbant and possibly open up a meaningful billet for an election loss.
This is all very, very positive in a convention-negotiation scenario, which would be an absolute disaster in general. No one from a back-room convention will be able to claim the mantle of legitimacy from all the state party selections, and in lieu of that it's critically important to have few in-party enemies (Michelle basically has none in the public awareness, unlike Hillary whose factionalism was legendary), have connections with other symbols of legitimacy (her marriage to Obama), have connections across a broad part of the Party (again, her marriage to Obama, who remains a key Democratic influencer), avoid sharing the issues the brought down the previous person and forced the choice (Michelle is young(er) and fit), and finally be able to take the dive gracefully in a way that sets up the next iterative round.
A Michelle election strategy would very likely run on a 'she's above the nastiness' while letting proxies attack, serving as best as possible as a foil rather than a mirror for Trump (where, whatever else one thinks of Biden, he also is easily cast as 'other old white corrupt liar'). It wouldn't necessarily be a bad strategy either- possibly the best from a bad hand- even as it (theoretically) could play to a lot of the Democrat's party interests and must-have coalition members, including the African-American vote, and the general professional female cohort. It's something more likely to help hold the party together in a way that appeals to its current core interests (urbanized professionals and progressive activists) than some of the other possibilities who could drive off the activists or deter the ongoing realignment progress of the national-security never-trump republicans, which has been party target since Hillary.
I think it’s widely acknowledged that Oprah (1st) and Michelle (2nd) would be the ‘ideal’ candidate. George Clooney is probably up there too. But none of them want to do it.
Oprah has way too many skeletons in the closet or she'd have run for something eons ago.
Hanging around shady Hollywood types like Weinstein wouldn’t sink her with the base, it’s not like Trump’s past affiliations sunk him. She’s also a woman (a black woman especially) which is Teflon against those accusations especially in front of a base that’s predominantly older women and POC. Any shady men she hung around can be excused as the kind of thing you have to do as a black woman to succeed in America. I think she just doesn’t want to do it.
I think Oprah is smart enough to realize that being a politician is a really bad deal, and michelle has enough first/second hand experience to know that. Besides, Oprah is an influential, household name already- it’s not like she needs to become a politician to get influence.
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This all hinges on her wanting the job. And I’m not certain that she does.
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I also think it is unserious (and not something she even wants). But I keep seeing mention of it. People missing the Obama presidency keep bringing her up.
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