domain:forecasting.substack.com
Tiber727
20hr ago
2 and 3 can go together. Farming has already been trending towards "Go big or go home." The margins on farming already suck, so big farms may eventually automate while small farms go under. Though honestly, I think big farms already automate as much as they can afford, and I think the crunch from lack of labor will hit faster than the relief from tech innovation.
KMC
lurk moar
20hr ago
Here is what I think likely happened. CP5 was a big, political case.
You skipped an important part in your haste to come to a conclusion. What do you think they were doing that night, when a woman was raped and beaten nearly to death? What do you think happened to her?
It's kind of important to have an idea of what did happen before you start imagining things about the response to what happened.
I think they were there, attacking and robbing people, maybe indiscriminately, maybe targeting whites, along with about 25 other people. I think all 30 deserve a short trip from a high place, and I think these 5 in particular are in fact guilty of the assault on this woman because of their confessions which implicated each other.
I also think the response to that response was a pretty good one.
Oh come on. Now every state that does not execute prisoners is inherently unjust?
Yes, yes, a thousand times yes.
Once more for those in the cheap seats:
HELL YES.
A state that exercises a monopoly on violence but doesn't put anyone to death is abdicating their duty and denying victims their due justice. Some people deserve to die for what they've done. Many people, in fact. Delaying this is the same as denying it, and denying it outright from the start is cruelty to the victims.
Quantumfreakonomics
20hr ago
Maybe you’re just in a bad spot. I was pleasantly surprised by the Hinge algorithm. It seemed to figure out what I like pretty quick.
George_E_Hale
insufferable blowhard
20hr ago
LateMechanic
20hr ago
I could be mistaken, but aren't you yourself a non-american who really doesn't like Trump? It seems like you've been exasperated for months here about the way this administration is handling their immigration crackdown attempt, particularly in regard to bad optics, damaged polling, and hypocritical american values. Taken together though, that sounds more like concern trolling than persuasive analysis.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
20hr ago
· Edited 18hr ago
Bummer. I think you're being a little bit of a negative Nancy and you are able to meaningfully participate in the political process more than you believe
If nothing else, the country (and the state and even my town of ~50,000) is simply too big for all but a small percentage to meaningfully participate in the political process. And that small percentage is made up mostly of those who make a living of it.
That's chill. Just don't shoot the cop that pulls you over for speeding and if you lose the court case pay your fine.
All depends on how high those penalties are. At some point, it will be worth shooting over.
ETA: You would think that in a first world country it never would be. But some years ago in New York City, a cop stepped into the road front of my bicycle, forcing me to go onto the sidewalk to avoid hitting him. He then arrested me and charged me with riding my bike on the sidewalk. When I went to court, the judge in the Midtown court -- who was not the regular judge -- told me I was lucky the regular judge wasn't there or I'd be going to Rikers Island. Rikers Island is the rather notorious NYC jail; the chance of a middle-aged white collar guy getting out of there alive, with his ass intact, and without any bones broken isn't very good. It's not an original observation with me that if the penalty for speeding is death, no one stops for the flashing lights. So be it. Anyway, I don't ride a bike in NYC any more.
Tiber727
20hr ago
These two statements:
The left-leaning media will paint Republican efforts in the most negative light
and
Trump wants ICE to be seen as a force to be feared
are not incompatible. The first is true, but doesn't actually dismiss whether the second is true or not.
And as to this second point, Trump is currently the guy who frames illegal immigration as an invasion, pays for illegal immigrants to be sent directly to a foreign jail without trial as gang members despite having no criminal record even close to gang membership and suggests sending Americans there, and sends the National Guard to progressive cities.
Trump's entire shtick is portraying everything as war and himself as champion. He wants that image and uses the media's attempts to smear him as fuel for it.
Skulldrinker
20hr ago
Obviously they can put whatever they want in their profile and still get infinite engagement.
Skulldrinker
21hr ago
Hinge.
TK-421
21hr ago
| I am not a politician; I have no charisma nor political skills, nor the skills required to hire such people, nor the money it would take to successfully lobby against even one law (and there are many bad ones). In practice, I cannot get a law changed. My choices are obey or not.
Bummer. I think you're being a little bit of a negative Nancy and you are able to meaningfully participate in the political process more than you believe, but it's true that people can have diminished capacity to engage with or even understand some laws / politics. There are many unfair disabilities that nature inflicts. I hope that in the future we will have the material, technological, social, etc. ability to have much finer instruments than current legal systems for structuring behavior. That is not currently possible. Your impairment, though, doesn't result in an outcome substantially different than someone who must live under a law they dislike but is enacted through the existing legitimate processes.
| No, of course not. If I'm breaking the law I'm doing what I want because I want to do it, and I don't much care if The Man doesn't like it.
That's chill. Just don't shoot the cop that pulls you over for speeding and if you lose the court case pay your fine.
TIRM
21hr ago
I heard an NPR show in which they interviewed chicken slaughterhouse workers. White Americans worked those jobs. They were displaced by illegals.
AnonymousActuary
21hr ago
Are you under the impression that I disagree with John Brown's actions?
to be honest I was, though perhaps influenced by that substack article. I guess I see how you could read it as acceptable under the circumstances, and then we are just arguing about circumstances.
I have definitely gained some respect for eg the Shane Claiborne's of the world he maintain a strict non-violence standard and just subjecting everything to that.
coffee_enjoyer
☕️
21hr ago
Companionship dogs weren’t treated as working dogs in history. Greeks and Romans buried their dogs in elaborate tombs with poignant epitaphs. Neolithic humans buried dogs alongside human graves. There are statues in Europe commemorating dogs, the bronze weathered gold from the petting of passersby. The inordinate love of dogs may have negatively influenced the TFR of Rome, as Caesar / Plutarch criticize it in legend.
TIRM
21hr ago
just arrest people who do this
Ain't gonna happen. Online doxxing mobs are not subject to prosecution. I mean as a practical matter. Even if counterfactually there was a will to prosecute, the feds couldn't get almost all of the online mob.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
21hr ago
¿Por que no los dos?
It’s one of the more efficient and reasonable approaches of this initiative, in my opinion.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
21hr ago
Sigh.
You know, when I see your name on a reply, it triggers a little burst of shame. Classical conditioning.
I recognize that the mayor’s actions are making some bad scenarios worse. That includes withholding resources which might have rightly solved crimes. I shouldn’t have been so flippant.
I still believe it’s the motte to a bailey expressed all over the thread. Chicago is supposed to run this kind of investigation, and generally cooperate with federal operations, because that’s just business as usual. But the bailey launders the definition of “usual” to include more or less anything that supports ICE’s operation. If local governments aren’t actually compelled to provide aid, then they don’t have to run the investigation. They don’t have to provide riot police, or give access to every city building. I have a hard time squaring that with the absolute vitriol getting thrown their way.
07mk
21hr ago
I am trying to propose a grassroots way of continuing that decline in violence. I would rather not simply have cops on every corner, even though I am a cringe level of "back the blue" pro-police.
Cops who patrol corners often need to be fit, strong, and willing and capable of inflicting violence on unwilling individuals, for the purpose of protecting their community, right? Perhaps having cops on every corner is the way to provide a pathway for young males to adulthood in a way that reduces violence?
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
21hr ago
And I don't accept that you're a Free Man and that following laws you disagree with means that you're being unjustly put upon and must suck it up and obey.
That's OK, I don't expect you (or Donald Trump or Governor Murphy) to accept it.
There are many, many avenues for you to try to get a law changed
"It is not my business to be petitioning the governor or the legislature any more than it is theirs to petition me; and, if they should not hear my petition, what should I do then?"
I am not a politician; I have no charisma nor political skills, nor the skills required to hire such people, nor the money it would take to successfully lobby against even one law (and there are many bad ones). In practice, I cannot get a law changed. My choices are obey or not.
You are not a creature in a state of nature that has been cruelly subjugated and is striking a blow against The Man by doing what you want.
No, of course not. If I'm breaking the law I'm doing what I want because I want to do it, and I don't much care if The Man doesn't like it. Advocacy? Pfah, The Man won't listen to me. Sometimes he won't listen to a clear majority; the national maximum speed limit lasted for 22 years. If it had been obeyed that whole time, we'd still have it.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
21hr ago
I am trying to propose a grassroots way of continuing that decline in violence. I would rather not simply have cops on every corner, even though I am a cringe level of "back the blue" pro-police. Thus, I am suggesting what I am suggesting for young male development.
When you say that providing a pathway for young men into adulthood doesn't reduce violence I am, first, skeptical to the point of doubt and second, curious about what your solution for reducing violence would be (short of cops on every corner).
Remember, the context of my original post was that this seemingly wayward fellow in California burnt down part of a city out of nothing more than a moment of spastic nihilistic rage.
Goodguy
21hr ago
Yes, it's happened many times in history. In the US, most recently in the 1990s. Probably in large part due to better policing.
That "Old Right" conservatism was largely liberal by my standards. To the extent that some of them supported segregation based on race rather than more individual characteristics, I think they were illiberal. But liberalism, at least in my sense of the word, does not require that a country allow huge amounts of unvetted or barely-vetted foreigners to enter. Liberalism can be pragmatic, it just has to be fundamentally based on and strive for the ethos of judging people on their individual characteristics, and on meritocracy.
On a side note, this is where I disagree with the more right-libertarian interpretations of liberalism as being best served by hyper-capitalism. I appreciate capitalism, but capitalism as it exists, because of inheritance, is not a meritocracy.
faceh
21hr ago
Re-upping the one piece of advice I have on this.
It has to be effortful, uncomfortable, and entail (friendly) conflict.
Videogames sublimate this urge easily, especially in PVP modes, but lack the physical strain.
Men have to learn to fight. They have to have something to capture, some opponent to beat, and some promise of reward for taking risks.
Otherwise, they flail around without purpose, the urges get released in distinctly destructive ways, they fall in with anti-social crowds who will use them as a weapon, and they start taking really ill-advised risks on the promise of spurious rewards. Crypto-gambling is arguably the best case scenario there.
Not a cure-all, in the least, but its a START, which is more than a lot of guys get. Coach knew.
| I don’t know what defense I’d have in the moment if ICE decided to detain me after making the determination that a.) I’m undocumented and b.) the license I gave them is fake.
I guess it would go the same way as the guy from your story, you're detained for a couple hours and released when they discover that you aren't the right person. That's supposed to be kidnapping?
Edit: I just realized that your "...Americans are right to sour..." statement might mean that you aren't American and don't know how ICE fits into the deportation flow, so my comment may have been excessively harsh.
From reporting, it may seem reasonable to think that ICE is rounding people up and choosing who to deport based on what they determine about the person's citizenship status. That could produce a situation where someone goes to the grocery store without their passport, gets caught up in a sweep, and finds themselves on the next flight to CECOT.
This is false. ICE does not make deportation determinations. The deportation decision has already been made by an immigration judge and ICE then needs to positively establish a person's identity to know whether they are the correct Jose Gonzalez who has a removal order. If yes, process them for deportation. If no, they can still detain you and refer you to an immigration court, but they can't deport you and you will have the ability to plead your case to the immigration court. (There are some nuances with immigration officers in some situations in border areas where they have more discretion to order an expedited removal, and if you at all claim US citizenship then expedited removal isn't permissible, this is not what's happening with ICE.) It's basically the same as other agencies enforcing different laws - ICE does not have the independent authority to deport in the same way that the police can arrest you for something but they can't make a determination of your guilt or impose a sentence.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
21hr ago
Is physical violence in society able to be decreased at all?
As a training tool, sure. As a means of forcing an animal to sit still for the sake of being a video prop, it is simply animal abuse by a stunted and pathetic man.
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