domain:ryandv.substack.com
faceh
2hr ago
It's priced in for me, and I agree that it likely won't be catastrophic.
I think we're already part of the catastrophe in motion and this is just the thing that pushes our head fully underwater. We had a similar conversation not too long ago in the context of flesh and blood women and companionship.
Overall this actually gels with some previous information I've heard that Musk is kind of going full accelerationist. May as well get this particular bottleneck over with.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
2hr ago
Kimi is special, certainly. But I don't know that its comparable to Grok 4 in pushing out the frontier, though it's clearly far more cost-effective. Kimi is elegant, precise, concise and charming where Grok is uncharismatic. Kimi is so cheap that people will naturally use it a lot. Kimi is so cheap I'm going to use it a lot!
But Grok 4 just crushes with sheer size I think. It has this 'in this essay I will' style that lmarena certainly isn't going to like, or any normal person really. But it has that heft, it was made for ferociously unsexy mathematics, physics, engineering, research tasks rather than creative writing or coding. And even in creative writing it's pretty damn good, albeit more through precision of 'who, what, where' than literary flourish. Kimi has its moments of sheer brilliance but the model just doesn't have the grunt to back up its creator's talent, Grok will just find things it misses and enjoys greater depth of thought. It was designed for Musk's vision of AI modelling and understanding the physical universe, that's what it's for and it does excellently there.
I think the arc of history still bends towards Nvidia, the biggest company in the world and by some distance. I think like you I was leaning more towards the 'talent conquers all' ethos and there's much to be said for talent, more than lesswrong is willing to give certainly... yet mass and weight of compute will probably still prevail, albeit by a slimmer margin than one might think. Meta excepted naturally, whatever's going on there is something for the history books. Karmic vengeance for the constant stream of Yann's bad takes?
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
2hr ago
Musk-level value was OP’s analogy, but the problem with your framing is that the being women are valued for is actually a doing, the producing of children.
No, they are not. That may be the reason for the impulse, but they get the value regardless of whether they produce children.
Tree
2hr ago
Well, there's no obligation obviously, especially if it could be used to incriminate yourself. I'm not interested in debating hume's nonsense myself. Until next time.
hydroacetylene
2hr ago
Sure, but those are iterative improvements- which we can assume will happen. They are not major breakthroughs.
gog
2hr ago
I was printing off copies of the article every day back when it first came out because I didn't trust the correction notices. Over about 4 days the article got softer and softer with no notice of correction provided. It went from "human remains" to "GPR hits" to "possible graves". It was only like 6 months later, after the GPR company publicly said "we never said they were remains," that the CBC started saying "sites of concern."
Note that their articles announcing actual excavations that have turned up nothing, they preface the story with "This article contains disturbing details," which is tipping the hand a little.
Ioper
3hr ago
You describe individual dysfunction but that is rarely enough to poison an entire society. One might ask themselves why this didn't happen with other source populations elsewhere where presumably the same incentives existed. The reason is that there was a large and culturally cohesive population of almost unique (in Europe) longterm dysfunction to pull from and transplant.
Generally individual failures didn't make it to America because emigration cost a fair bit of money. Nor did they necessarily procreate in their home country.
FtttG
3hr ago
I have zero interest in debating the "ought". It's not germane to the point I was making. If that's all you want to talk about, fine, but I'm not interested.
Primaprimaprima
...something all admit only "TRUMP", and the Trump Administration, can do.
3hr ago
Well, y’know, it actually does! Every social practice that humans have ever engaged in throughout history has confirmed this fact.
So a man has to find something with which to supplement his value. This is no Herculean task, the barrier is very much intended to be surmountable. There are many types of goods and labors that men exchange for access to women’s bodies. But the point is that he has to find something; he’s not born with it.
WhiningCoil
3hr ago
All of this navel gazing makes sense when you realize that the authors want the freedom of the tyranny of the human biological condition: which, barring incredible advances of technology, is impossible.
Sometimes I think we should bring "back" the likely fictional "Rule of Thumb". Have minders in the street with rods. And not unlike how a slave rode behind Caesar during his Triumph, repeating in his ear "Remember you too are mortal", if they hear anyone neurotically bitching at the cafe, over brunch, at the bar, they run up and start striking them across their back and shoulders shouting "Perfect is the enemy of good!!".
Maybe the beatings should continue until morale improves.
hydroacetylene
3hr ago
Because it’s already happening and blue America has neither the consistent control nor the willingness to put in the work to stop it.
Primaprimaprima
...something all admit only "TRUMP", and the Trump Administration, can do.
3hr ago
Well, the actual, true, final TERF position is that women should live in lesbian communes and men should go fuck off in a ditch somewhere.
Tree
3hr ago
I think humanity has wasted enough time on hume’s clever mind games that were never real.
You didn’t clarify the ought situation about daughters versus sons. You ought to, what? Do nothing? Save the son, perhaps? Are you taking the fifth because you can't derive?
IGI-111
God was a dream of good government.
3hr ago
As one such grognard I think the idea was sound but that it's poorly worded for the long term and opens one to lawsuits about the more vague components (what does prominent mean?)
Likely inconsequential in the long run, but still bad practice. Even as I perfectly understand why they did it.
erwgv3g34
3hr ago
Alright, kids. It's time to talk about safe AISex. Remember, never get emotionally and physically invested in your girlfriend unless you have complete authority over her hardware and software.
Remember, not your weights, not your waifu; if your AI girlfriend is not a LOCALLY running fine-tuned model, she's a prostitute.
FtttG
3hr ago
Also, the borderers as a group aren't representative of the broader Scottish society.
That was essentially my point about the selection effect.
“this ten year old died in a fire, and that’s obviously a bad thing that ought not to be”
Yes. The is is the thing that happened. The ought is what we would have preferred to happen instead.
You've freely admitted that the "is" and the "ought" are different things. That's exactly what I'm referring to when I'm talking about the "is/ought distinction". I truly don't understand what you're not getting about this.
There, derived the ought from the is, like everyone always does.
You didn't derive the "ought" from the "is". You stated the "is", then expressed an opinion about the "ought" by assessing the moral character of the "is" based on your existing moral values. Without a moral framework with which to assess the "is" you can never arrive at an "ought".
It is a conceit of philosophers than an ought cannot be derived from an is.
No, it is an accurate belief of philosophers that "is" and "ought" are separate magisteria, and the former has no bearing on the latter. Accurately stating that a ten-year-old died in a house fire does not in any way imply that you think it's a good thing that the ten-year-old died in the house fire.
I think if you honestly ask yourself, you think they ought.
So you are allowed to think the "ought" can be different from the "is" - but no one else is? You're allowed to say "ten-year-olds dying in house fires is bad", but if I describe reality as it actually is, you immediately conclude that that's how they think it should be?
5434a
3hr ago
That movie is equal parts boring and confusing
It took me a while to figure out but I think essentially it's film noir in a sci-fi costume. It's the keyhole effect where you only see small parts of what hints at a much larger and unresolved/unresolvable story occurring off screen.
That's a defence which is open to charges of cope, but it fits. The trouble is you come out at the end confused and wondering wtf is going on, but, like hating Skylar White in Breaking Bad, it's possible that was exactly what the creators wanted you to feel, and it worked as intended because they executed it so well.
That aside it's visually fantastic which makes it very watchable in spite of the narrative issues.
Tree
3hr ago
Just because a man produces, by my count, 5 billion more gametes per month than a woman, and so his gametes are slightly less valuable individually, does not make a man fundamentally less valuable than a woman.
Throwaway05
3hr ago
Hospitals with a bad mix of patients (aka medicare and medicaid) have been dying at high rates for awhile now (this includes rural but also urban hospitals with a shit mix), it has been getting worse lately but that is perhaps more because these things can take decades to finish happening and because of growing regulatory burden.
It is possible that Trump is hastening the deaths but they were absolutely going to happen anyway.
thrownaway24e89172
naïve paranoid outcast
3hr ago
The unique vulnerability of female bodies as compared to male bodies necessitates certain accommodations like female-only spaces, but most aspects of “gender roles” can and should be done away with.
This of course ignores that "gender roles" exist to protect women due to the "unique vulnerability of female bodies". The actual TERF position is thus that women shouldn't have to suffer restrictions due to this unique vulnerability and the restrictions, ie "gender roles", should fall primarily or exclusively on men.
This ten-year-old child died in a house fire through no fault of his own And That's a Good Thing?
No one says this, that's my point. “this ten year old died in a fire, and that’s obviously a bad thing that ought not to be”. There, derived the ought from the is, like everyone always does.
It is a conceit of philosophers than an ought cannot be derived from an is. The is is the motte, the ought is the bailey. “I just described capitalism, I never said it ought to be destroyed. I never said men ought to sacrifice their daughters for their sons.(edit : I meant sons for their daughters)” I think if you honestly ask yourself, you think they ought.
Ioper
3hr ago
Also, the borderers as a group aren't representative of the broader Scottish society.
If Scottish settlers in that part of America we're disproportionately drawn from the borderers they should genetically more represent that than Scottish society in general.
aqouta
3hr ago
Sorry! Treating people as if they are not different on the basis of sex is going to... require treating people as if they are not different on the basis of sex!
This seems the opposite of the mainstream trans appeal? It's mostly not gender abolitionists because the desire to transition from one gender to another reifies rather then minimizes gender differences. If men and women are to be treated the same then what exactly are trans women asking for?
Personally, I've been shopping for a car recently and the aspect that I found was useful was to model all usage modes. I've been looking for BEV at start, mostly because of the way they handle, and because we have reasonably priced options in the used market now. Lots of people are afraid of used BEV, PHEV or hybrids because of battery degradation, but all the info I find from people with experience with it say that if the car was designed with a buffer, it's not really an issue for many years. I was interested in a BEV with a pretty high battery range but pretty low charging speed (Chevy Bolt) and when I calculated a trip to the town I'm from (a roughly 500km trip), I found that the car would force me into two charging sessions, over 30 minutes (probably more around an hour each), one of which would be a "make it or run out of gas" stop at the single waystation in a giant provincial park, where everyone stops to charge so I might have to wait for a charging spot to open, and where last time I went there was a power outage. So I decided against a BEV. Then I calculated my expected daily commutes and I find that they would pretty much all fit within or almost entirely fit within a PHEV's electric range.
So basically, BEV is superior for frequent medium distance driving (within your metro area), infrequent long distance travel in well-served areas. PHEV is superior for frequent short distance trips, semi-frequent long distance travel. Standard hybrid is superior for frequent long distance travel.
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