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the background information that girls like this have gotten raped by gangs of actual migrants sort of has to color this discussion.

As far as I've gathered, the background information is that girls have been typically raped by gangs of migrants through gradually grooming them in, not jumping them on the street. I don't think carrying axes would've helped against that.

I have seen some reasonably compelling anecdotal evidence that FtM correlates very strongly with eating disorders ("take hormones to avoid getting curves!") and also with childhood sexual abuse ("I don't want to be seen as a woman if this is how they're treated!"). And also that those two are nontrivially correlated with each other.

Not trying to imply that this fits all cases, but it read as quite believable to me.

Black Americans have been here for hundreds of years, I suppose we can throw out the term “black” too and just talk about the American race from now on?

Saying they have a "mixture of European and non-European ancestry" is about as useful as saying that English people have a "mixture of English and non-English" ancestry because of that dirty Norman blood.

No, it’s not, because Anglo-Saxons and Normans were extremely genetically-similar populations even before intermixing. Whereas gypsies originate in the Indian subcontinent. They have also practiced a large degree of endogamy, meaning that they have maintained a very large non-European component to their ancestry despite their long existence living alongside Europeans.

Yes, they have inhabited the European geographical area for a long time, but surely you can understand that that’s not what people are referring to when they call them “non-European”. There is a genetic/ancestral cluster from which the peoples of Europe collectively descend, since many thousands of years ago. Gypsies are highly peripheral to this, as their arrival into Europe is comparatively very recent and they maintain significant genetic difference — manifested in their obvious phenotypic differences from the surrounding populations — from that genetic cluster.

is a round-robin

and a small amount of random noise added to people's decisions

Well, that changes the things rather significantly.

(scoring on total utility over all players/iterations)

Come on, you've completely changed the meaning of the game at this point.

The "manifesto" is collection of writings in a diary written in broken Cyrillic/Russian. Most likely self-taught. The letter is indeed the shooter's suicide note I only read these two pages, but people get the gist. The gist is all I needed before I felt a pang of disgust and no longer felt compelled to learn of motive. Allow me to rant.

How kind, how caring, how comforting to leave a suicide note for friends and family. A depressive ritual, centuries old, that historically aims to share some of the burden of grieving with those left behind. A note acknowledges the tragedy a person creates, but attempts to leave some humanity along with with the selfish, often foolish act.

I don't see how the "suicide" note can do any of that in this case. In this case, the letter should impress upon friends and family a number of unusually burdensome regrets. This exit strategy will leave loved ones in a position where they will pressed to wake up thinking they wish their loved one had taken the easy way out. I wonder if the shooter considered what it might be like for a father to wake up wishing his son had taken his own life, and what that might do to a man? Suicide is usually a selfish act, but in comparison to the murder of children it is downright saintly. It would be better for the well-being of friends and family if they thought this person had a psychotic break without notice. I don't suppose we can expect moral clarity from a mass murderer.

The panning over the writing on all the weapons are where things are weird.

My read is that is pure attention grabbing. To my knowledge there's no Marxist or political commentary in the diary beyond Joo-maxxing. I don't think it's even accurate to call this type a misanthrope. They hate themselves and don't have the decency to do us the favor. I understand depression is colloquially said to be like emotional blindness, but I don't think it is appropriate to invoke that here. This is of a different category.

My hot take: if Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold were alive today they'd be trans. It wouldn't be the trenchcoat mafia, it'd be the transcoat mafia. I'm not sure how hard it is to successfully profile this type to send them off to boarding school in Idaho. Sure, there's constitutional problems, but there's problems disarming domestic violence perps and we do that. Once they're over 18 society is stuck with the consequences.

It makes WW2 look nice by comparison.

This is a bit extreme, even if you were going for hyperbole. I mean, WW2 ended with the US dropping two nukes on Japan lol

it seems pretty obvious that a lot of FtM types in particular are far less interested in becoming men than they are afraid of becoming women

Huh...

This makes me think that FtM transsexuality and MtF transsexuality are actually a lot more symmetrical than I previously realized.

Someone here once mentioned that FtM transsexuality was driven by an urge to "self annihilation", which I thought was great and accurate. Although it did make FtMism out to be a rather different phenomenon than MtFism, since MtFism is pretty clearly driven by positive desire.

But if we instead think that the key issue underlying all forms of transsexuality is the individual's relation to femininity. FtMism = rejection of and flight from femininity, MtFism = attraction to and desire to possess femininity. Then we can start to conceive of the two forms as being separate manifestations of the same underlying phenomenon.

I happen to agree with the radfems who claim that men are the "default" gender and women are a deviation from the default. Although I might disagree with them over the specifics. Rather than conceiving of femininity as a "lack" of masculinity, it's relatively clear to me that femininity is something that one possesses in addition to the "default" human state. And this is exactly what we see expressed in the two distinct forms of transsexuality.

Yeah, I was thinking it’s very Toxoplasma of Rageish. Like, if I wanted to pick/manufacture the perfect heroine and villain for my long-planned rising, these aren’t the ones I’d choose.

Except they're Europeans. They've been in Europe for a thousand years and don't exist outside of Europe. Saying they have a "mixture of European and non-European ancestry" is about as useful as saying that English people have a "mixture of English and non-English" ancestry because of that dirty Norman blood.

For people who even saw the whole video but linked with some unambiguous caption 'girls fend off migrant predator', they're primed to jump to different conclusions when hearing the older sister screaming "she's only 12, get away from her!"

Given a different context, it's much easier to imagine she's saying that like 'stop filming and trying to get my sister in trouble or embarrass her on the internet, she's only a retarded 12 yr old who was trying to impress the older kids!'

Then there's just left the debate where people can make assumptions about what happened before the video: whether this was probably a poor guy minding his own business who was practically attacked, or finally a pro-social citizen doing his part to police public spaces, or likely a tattle-tale karen trying to get his 5 minutes of fame, or possibly a predator whose pickup attempt failed and is now embarrassed and hoping 2 wrongs make a who-cares.

Philly sucks, do not visit.

I find all languages that use separate pronouns for men and women weak, personally.

If you enjoy getting a dark, "this is what war is like" perspective from a veteran, Phil Klay's "Missionaries" is educational.

For what it's worth, the German print media I see reporting on this (Zeit, Sueddeutsche) all prominently state that the shooter was trans, while also (as is the default for German media) using female pronouns and descriptors.

Going to keep my comments short since this is a well-trod culture war battlefield.

But its truly annoying to have to listen to the standard anti-gun positions trotted out once again without grappling with any of the other factors at play.

When only a couple months ago an attempted mass shooting at a church was stopped by at least TWO armed staff... and a guy with a truck.

Yes, it turns out that 'good guy with a gun' can be an effective counter to these threats.

So when the Dems once again trot out the gun control agenda I can only assume they're acting in bad faith because the only other explanation is having the memory of a goldfish.

if a typical FTM's experience as an adult in society is closer to that of a masculine/low status woman or that of a median man.

Depends on the type of FTM. One type specifically tries to look like Danny Devito because it will make them invisible. Their dysphoria seems to be related to discomfort with getting attention from men, and becoming invisible is the way to avoid that attention.

From my perspective, it seems pretty obvious that a lot of FtM types in particular are far less interested in becoming men than they are afraid of becoming women, and so their "dysphoria" is driven more by a desire to prevent adulthood. It's less about what they transition to ("boys"), than what they don't transition to (adults).

Given the memes separating "women and children" from "men," there's something deeply ironic and perverse and even darkly hilarious about this. Of course, an FTM doesn't transition to becoming a man, but rather a transman, and I have to wonder, once we remove all the ideologically-based praise and support from being trans, if a typical FTM's experience as an adult in society is closer to that of a masculine/low status woman or that of a median man.

Its also entertaining to me, or else I wouldn't persist so much.

I actually get where they're coming from. I was taught a narrative for 20 years that women generally dislike being told what to do, that you should be nice and unthreatening when talking to them, and that "no" unequivocally means "no" every time, rather than "CONVINCE me."

You really have to internalize rules 1 and 2 (be attractive, don't be unattractive) and then notice how if you're attractive, you are already 80% of the way to winning, you just have to play the game correctly and overcome some token amount of reluctance and 'close the deal' (for whatever "the deal" is). This means being assertive and, frankly, treating them as if they don't know what they want, and you're just the man to give it to them.

One observation that really made it click for me was "if they really want you to stop, they'll leave/avoid you." If they aren't actively packing and heading for the door, you're still in play. For some people reading actions comes naturally. For the guys who have been taught their whole lives to take women at their word, they're left VERY confused as to why ignoring their words would work so well.

From my perspective, it seems pretty obvious that a lot of FtM types in particular are far less interested in becoming men than they are afraid of becoming women, and so their "dysphoria" is driven more by a desire to prevent adulthood. It's less about what they transition to ("boys"), than what they don't transition to (adults). This makes sense when you assume they've been infected by a highly virulent memeplex that is essentially uses their bodies to reproduce itself and spread laterally (using modern communications technology) rather than generationally. Arresting their development is a good strategy, because it prevents them from wasting time and energy on such irrelevant things as their own reproductive success. I perceive this pattern less among MtF types, but I guess it exists.

Older highly successful memeplexes tended to be much more symbiotic with their hosts, since being pro-natal was a good way of spreading itself. Making children was one of the most effective ways the memeplex's host could make more hosts, but modern communications and transport technology changes everything. This is probably the fundamental reason for collapsing birthrates, and transgenderism is an extreme manifestation of that.

destroying the Dnieper bridges

One explanation is that destroying them isn't that easy. You need to destroy at least one of the pylons to render them non-operational, fixing the spans is relatively straightforward. Ukraine also has several dams across the Dnieper, which are even harder to damage and would flood several large cities if destroyed. Drowning thousands of civilians is bad optics.

Fair

Sort of. UK law allows you to carry a folding knife with a non-locking blade up to 3 inches without reason or justification. Most Leathermans have locking blades, so they're out, but there may be older ones or similar tools from other companies that qualify. BUT, you are allowed to carry one if you have a good reason to carry one (other than defense), so if you're hiking or use it for work or something it technically wouldn't be a problem. I have no idea how strictly this is enforced.

I'm calling it, this turned out to be an excellent Scissor Incident.

There is insufficient context to judge the situation or the participants, but taps into multiple underlying prejudices that audience has to impact the personal conclusions they reach. For some this is clearly a creepy brown migrant perving on vulnerable girls. For others, clearly a delinquent with illegal weapons harassing a relatively innocent bystander.

The arguing over whether carrying bladed weapons is 'normal', or at least understandable given the potential dangers, or actively a sign of a juvenile delinquent, the inability to truly ascertain the race of the guy filming, just going off the accent, the somewhat muddled story about what led to the incident. The various cultural cues that read different ways to different people.

The question that we definitely can't answer is what would have happened to this girl and her friends if she weren't armed, and the incident wasn't filmed. I personally doubt that this particular migrant was actually going to assault this particular girl, but yeah, the background information that girls like this have gotten raped by gangs of actual migrants sort of has to color this discussion.

Just, epistemic humility demands that you acknowledge the uncertainty and don't make bold statements of certainty when the reliable information is still very limited.

But even our generally rational forum has got people digging in on both sides, expressing high confidence in their assessment.

In the context of people complaining about migrant crime and racialized sexual predation, gypsies and Bulgarians are not the same thing, even if the gypsies come from Bulgaria.

And sure, the girl is probably a thug, especially with reports of the police constantly finding knives on people her age.