domain:noahpinion.blog
I don't know what to tell you. I think it's perfectly possible to be against something while tolerating it. For example, I would describe myself as "against religion", but I tolerate religious people, and I am willing to allow that for some people, they're probably happier for being religious than they would otherwise be. Nothing you have shown me disproves the idea that Rowling is against transition in this sense. And you certainly haven't proven her to be in favor of it in the sense that I argued would be necessary for a fitting advocate of the narrow puberty-blockers issue, which was my core point, not whatever semantic games about what it means to be "against" something.
Chrisprattalpharaptr
Ave Imperaptor
4hr ago
It was after this paragraph that I decided to just stop reading.
Sad. You'll never get to experience my devastating counterargument. Best of luck to you - I'm eager to see how all the predictions shake out, although you haven't shared many here.
But my argument here was not that China Good: solely that allowing Chinese development in the first place, instead of pursuing a more negative-sum strategy, was not a blunder or a betrayal of American self-interest. America actually can benefit from global growth (eg by getting bailed out in a crisis, after having become a pillar of global economy). Chinese growth prior to this phase of conflict is, therefore, not evidence of American Deep State being incompetent.
I think you should expand this take into it's own post for discussion of the group. It's...an interesting one.
For the contrary example, look no further than the EU and Canada. They have comparable population quality, are at the same stage of development, and share many of your natural advantages. How have the last 20 years been for them? Are they famed for their Deep State? I rest my case.
This one too. Can't speak for the EU, but the argument that Canada would be as powerful as the US (or I imagine you'd retreat to a motte of achieve comparable GDP growth rates to the US given that you haven't actually specified any metric by which to compare them over the last 20 years) if they only had a more competent deep state is a hilarious take.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4hr ago
I’ve never heard “what’s up with all the canes” despite being pretty active in trans communities (I actually don’t know anybody that uses a cane or crutch), although I’m seeing that canes are popular in the broader American queer community for some reason?
I'm confused. By the time you reach the end of the sentence, you seem to confirm what I've said. I suppose what you mean is that the queer community in your locality has not been affected by that particular thing?
To have the best chance of passing, you should skip the 2 years of puberty blocker and just go straight into opposite-sex HRT.
I will, once again, have to comb through the 7 zillion hours of podcasts I listened to for a source, but I solemnly swear that the original rationale for puberty blockers was passing. Even if, after some experimentation, it turned out that you get better results with just going directly to hormones, I swear that this was the original rationale, as per the Dutch researchers who kicked off the trend. This will probably take longer than the other search, but I'm planting a flag here, and I will also get back to you once I found it, or have tapped out.
rae
4hr ago
Here’s a LessWrong article that goes in depth about this slightly bizarre topic. It’s pretty much certain that castration makes you less likely to die from infectious diseases, cardiovascular disease, and (obviously) testicular and prostate cancer, and the benefits decrease the later it’s done.
WhiningCoil
4hr ago
The thing that gets me about all this, is that it took a Supreme Court Case to tell the government "No, you can't steal a half million dollar piece of property from someone to satisfy a debt 1/10th of that." And then the shear fucking balls for the government to turn around and go "Ok, well, now we know that... but it doesn't help you"
The financial sector is both highly regulated and employs a disproportionately small number of people compared to it's share of GDP. While it accounts for 20% of GDP it only employs some 4% of the workforce, which is about half of manufacturing (which is supposedly dead in America) or less than a third of healthcare.
Even if the finance industry would be disrupted it would affect relatively few people, despite it's large share of GDP and would therefore not lead to wider scale panic. At best/worst we're looking at a mild upward pressure on unemployment.
Argh no this is exactly the reaction I am worried about from the people who want to ban puberty blockers because trans.
Sorry, I might be missing something, but I honestly cannot grasp how I should shrug at the extremely poor quality of evidence for prescribing puberty blockers, because it hasn't been prescribed to that many kids, but shriek in horror at the suggestion of banning them, because the number is growing. If the number is growing, than your original argument for dismissing my concerns is invalid, isn't it?
You could perhaps ban puberty blockers for kids over a certain age
If anything, I'd want to ban it for kids under a certain age.
Calling both alien abductions and recovered memories "social contagion" is exactly the sort of thing I'm talking about when I say that "social contagion" is a non-explanation.
Feel free to disagree with the analogies, it's entirely possible that dysphoria is not like alien abductions or recovered memories, but the comparison does show that social contagion is not a non-explanation.
Scott had a bit about how parapsychology is a placebo for studies, in that we know that, say, remote viewing is bunk, but it will still yield a statistically significant result in a properly done, controlled, double-blinded, peer-reviewed studies. So whatever that result is on average, it should be seen as the "placebo effect" for any other phenomenon, and any study that cannot beat it should be dismissed. It's a similar case here, we know that alien abductions aren't real, but we see them being reported, and we see how they correlate to their portrayal in the media. If you can't show that a purely self-reported phenomenon like gender dysphoria doesn't break out of the same media exposure pattern, there's no reason to believe it's a real thing to begin with.
My understanding is that, to the extent that "social contagion" is a coherent hypothesis at all
What is incoherent about it? We do have other references for phenomena that are social contagion for sure, because no one has been abducted by aliens. Are these hypotheses incoherent too?
This strikes me as unlikely, especially since "antisocial and lonely" is a risk factor for the mtf group.
The internet is a thing these days. People can read, watch Netflix shows with capital "D" diversity up the wazoo, etc. There's parasocial effects stemming from following influencers. Subreddits, Discords. Sorry, but this is pure cope.
Base rate. Lots of people care start caring about things when they become personally affected by them, and orders of magnitudes more people were personally affected by the pronoun craze and the corresponding threats to livelihood and job security than even know someone personally affected by puberty blockers.
Well, a swing and a miss in my case. I take the issue personally, because when I was originally exposed to it, I had to reluctantly concede, even though it went against my instincts, as the other side had all the studies and experts on their side. Then the studies turned out to be bluffs, and the experts were proven to be actively lying. I resent overriding my instincts for a lie, which is why I'm so invested in pointing out that the liars have, in fact, been lying.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
5hr ago
It also reduced the need for horses, who have been reduced mostly to glorified pets.
rae
5hr ago
I’ve never heard “what’s up with all the canes” despite being pretty active in trans communities (I actually don’t know anybody that uses a cane or crutch), although I’m seeing that canes are popular in the broader American queer community for some reason? I do know that various disorders are more common among trans people (e.g. endometriosis, PCOS in FtMs, EDS in general) but they’re not related to puberty blockers. Delaying puberty for too long without any sex hormones is bad for bone health, that’s for sure.
Not quite. The original rationale for puberty blockers was passing, "time to choose" was a marketing strategy. It has been lost to debate when the reversibility of blockers became dubious / indefensible.
To have the best chance of passing, you should skip the 2 years of puberty blocker and just go straight into opposite-sex HRT. Once you are on estrogen or testosterone, you’re not at a higher risk of osteoporosis than cis women/men respectively, and it’s conceivable your risk could actually be lower than someone who goes through menopause. Trans women that are on only puberty blockers for a while will actually grow taller and have a barrel-like chest (the classic eunuch physique), even if they avoid masculinisation.
Bartender_Venator
5hr ago
I actually find it much more of an issue in small-town restaurants, the kind you'd go to on a roadtrip stop if you wanted to avoid a chain. Recall once stopping off at a BBQ joint in the Central Valley (not necessarily a mistake, there are good ones) and my sandwich was like eating a salt shaker. Same with a fried chicken place in the coastal South that all the locals raved over. Though I did recently eat a bag of store-bought popcorn and it was so salty I had to put chapstick on for the next two days to heal my lips.
On top of that, most major organizations are still barely adapted to using spreadsheets and the most simple algorithmic techniques that were created decades ago. Literally just using excel to automate tasks could save these companies tens of millions of dollars a year. And yet... they don't?
You say this is because of political/irrational reasons but I think it's because the human capital available to them is too stupid to use a spreadsheet to (e.g.) predict when they need to restock the warehouse. Something intelligent agents should be very useful at!
Currently, you can either have Pete walk the warehouse every week and plan a re-order list based on his vibes, or you can buy an expensive business intelligence package, which is risky because it requires you to switch a ton of your existing workflow over. The smart simple solution a college grad in hard sciences with a spreadsheet can come up with is not available to most businesses because that grad doesn't want to work in an import-distribution business.
HereAndGone
5hr ago
A man who intends to have no surgery and take no hormones may now secure himself a Gender Recognition Certificate and be a woman in the sight of the law", she writes, as if that were inherently beyond the pale.
Well, uh, yeah? Guy who is functionally a guy but gets off on having people call him "ma'am" and getting into women's spaces so he can parade around with his dick on show is beyond the pale. That includes "yes I've now been convicted of violent rape but I suddenly discovered my inner femininity so please put me in the women's jail not the men's jail" specimens.
There may well be "I call myself legally a woman but I'm functionally still a man" types who don't cause any harm or intend to do so, but they seem to be rare specimens. The "my legal identity is a woman but I'm a straight guy who has penis in vagina sex with women" on the other hand, do cause waves even if they maintain that their intentions were pure.
Let’s back up a second. Should we be using male or female pronouns with you? How do you identify?
I’m very neutral, like non-binary, although I don’t like that word. I’m legally female. But I have facial hair. I have a penis. I have no breasts. I don’t have a feminine voice. I don’t wear makeup or dress up like a female. So imagine you’re a grocery store [clerk] and you’re bagging my groceries and you say, “Excuse me, sir . . . ” I mean, am I supposed to be offended? That’d be ridiculous. How would this person know? But technically, for legal terms, I am she/her. I put "female" on my driver’s license. But I’ve had to struggle my whole life fitting into traditional society.
...Have you considered just changing clothes in a stall or wearing a bathing suit?
It’s not for me to adapt to society at this point. Even if it’s the polite thing to do or you want me to or there’s a controversy or whatever, if nobody else is using a shower curtain or nobody else is using a swimsuit, it’s illegal to try and make me do it. Technically, and from all perspectives, I am female, and everybody agrees with that. We’re all on equal grounds under the law.
Disapprove of my attitudes, that's your right, but if I'm in a women's changing room I don't want this guy walking around with his dingle-dangle out even if he has legal papers that he's a Real Woman.
hydroacetylene
5hr ago
The year is 2050. Humans have long since ceased to do productive work. Amazon and Walmart are giant government contractors competing to provide unemployed people with ‘basic’- a groceries, clothes, household goods, etc ration. The two mega corps keep lobbying for basic to increase; their primary bargaining tool is offering to hire more ‘process supervisors’ and ‘account managers’ to sit in rubber rooms.
ZanarkandAbesFan
5hr ago
Makes me wonder what Fatah stands for.
ToaKraka
Dislikes you
5hr ago
Everyone (but Dennis) did everything by the book
I think Roman can also be blamed for failing to probate the will earlier. If the house's tenancy in common between him and Dennis had been properly reflected on the deed, then presumably the foreclosure complaint would have been served on him as well as on Dennis.
Butlerian
Not robot-ist just don't like 'em
5hr ago
If you've ever seen how the sausage gets made at a major company, jobs are very much withheld and created on more of an internal, political basis than any actual needs the companies have.
Well said.
I’m inclined to take the indictment of economic inefficiency even further, and point out that jobs at major companies are also created on an EXTERNAL political basis. As @hydroacetylene says, the government has a variety of incentives (which may or may not include his schizo one) to keep the (formal) employment rate high. While I am skeptical that LLM-based AI will ever get good (or at least reliable) enough to make mass unemployment a realistic possibility, even if we grant the hypothetical that it actually will, I fully expect the government to disrupt the disruption by just writing some legislation which obliges corps to employ human rubber-stampers (“supervisory oversight”) on AI processes, thereby neatly regenerating all the white-collar jobs which have been automated. Legal compliance hits startups just as much as it hits status quo inc.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
5hr ago
Also, if blockers aren't such a big deal, then let's just ban them. After all very few people would be affected by the ban.
Argh no this is exactly the reaction I am worried about from the people who want to ban puberty blockers because trans. About 20k kids a year enter puberty extremely early (before 8 for girls, before 9 for boys, sometimes much before). This number is going up extremely rapidly over time. You could perhaps ban puberty blockers for kids over a certain age but I am not confident there wouldn't be substantial negative effects from that, and I bet you aren't either, because this is not our field of expertise. If I expected that, conditional on legislation existing here, the legislators would consult with pediatricians and write the legislation to actually be sane and minimally scoped, I wouldn't raise this objection, but I don't expect that legislation in this area (or any area really) would be sane and minimally scoped.
Just look at some of the other contagions - the Satanic Panic, alien abductions, recovered memories, anorexia - the incidence of these, and many other things, increase with coverage from the media, and there's no evidence they increase with the actual phenomenon increasing in frequency, or at least I'm yet to see evidence of an actual alien abduction. So I see no reason to assume that gender dysphoria is any different.
Calling both alien abductions and recovered memories "social contagion" is exactly the sort of thing I'm talking about when I say that "social contagion" is a non-explanation. Those had very different causes from each other. Effective interventions aimed at reducing the incidence of false recovered memories (e.g. "the APA stops endorsing dream interpretation therapy") would probably not help very much for the alien abduction craze.
With gender dysphoria we see that there is a particular personality (two personalities, actually: mtf and ftm seem like two pretty much non-overlapping personality groups) that is much, much more prone to it than others. My understanding is that, to the extent that "social contagion" is a coherent hypothesis at all, it predicts that trans hit these groups hardest just because it reached those social groups first and then spread within them, and if it had started in a different social group we would see a different distribution over trans frequencies by personality type. This strikes me as unlikely, especially since "antisocial and lonely" is a risk factor for the mtf group.
Social contagion is exactly one of the explanations offered for this. It says that what leads to discomfort with being embodied is talking about discomfort with being embodied, especially when you glamorize it during the conversation.
I agree it's not related to any discussion on gender affirming care. I'm quite puzzled why you'd think otherwise, actually.
Base rate. Lots of people care start caring about things when they become personally affected by them, and orders of magnitudes more people were personally affected by the pronoun craze and the corresponding threats to livelihood and job security than even know someone personally affected by puberty blockers.
hydroacetylene
5hr ago
What other gender? I don’t understand what they’re conforming to?
Man, that really sucks for Dennis.
This case seems like a great metaphor for America these days: Everyone (but Dennis) did everything by the book, and the court seems to have made the right decision based on the facts, but no one had the decency to knock on Dennis's door a couple of times and let him know of his impending legal doom because he didn't check all the right boxes in the right forms.
Life in America sucks for people who can't / won't jump through legal hoops. Basically everyone I know who is on-again-off-again-homeless has a story like this about how the system fucked them over. But the Man oppressing them is just "doing the right thing by the book". I'm sure there were other problems in the 1800s, but at least the downtrodden/not-quite-dregs of society didn't have to deal with paperwork.
hydroacetylene
5hr ago
I mean ‘taking agency to reinvent yourself rather than going along with societal expectations’ is also very male coded.
hydroacetylene
5hr ago
Sure, I was taught that if I needed to talk about puberty I could go to my parents or maybe grandparents, but to only ask my doctor straightforward physical health questions and to not bother teachers, coaches, etc with such things at all.
This seems normal politeness and boundaries and not new-style paranoia to me(after all, it would never have occurred to my parents that doctors could turn me trans- it was simply assumed that anxiety about new feelings was impolite to discuss with them). My parents did, in fact, brush off my discomfort with starting puberty and I turned out fine. The need for conversion therapy wasn’t anticipatable-seeming and it did, in any case, work.
hydroacetylene
5hr ago
Ok, but did historic eunuchs actually have increased lifespans or did they have higher lifespans than the low baselines of premodern societies? The latter could easily be explained by court bureaucrats having higher life expectancies than either conventional elites who need to risk childbirth and combat or commoners who, well, farming is ludicrously dangerous even today?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
5hr ago
I kinda know what you mean, but I think there are limits to the method. Stella O'Malley, one of the most prominent anti-trans activists out there, had what could would probably fall under "gender dysphoria" from your definition. Plot twist: she's happily cis, and a mother of two children nowadays, and the experience of getting over the discomfort is part of the motivation for her activism.
Mihow
Lipstick on a guitar
5hr ago
Sounds like it’s an opportunity to test yourself in a new environment. Also, pick up some chicken and rice and beans and some containers and prep a bit. Actively tell your parents about what you’re doing and why. He’ll grab a cheap grill and have some fun and better tasting food.
Have fun!
Not all trans people find that their body "disagrees" with them, and even those who do often celebrate their transness, eg this popular quote.
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