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In that case it should be easy to provide an example of others that made the same predictions.

I dont get why people dislike Engiish weather. The showers there are not very intense, it is not sub 0 for months either in many parts.

Half the people here have either been to NYC or live there.

I dont like the cold due to the health issues most face, zero insulation and inability to sit outside. Georgia is a cool place.

I’ve been a colossal fan of Jeopardy! (a long-running American trivia game show, for those unfamiliar) for most of my life. My enthusiasm for the show skyrocketed during Ken Jennings’ historic 74-game winning streak in 2004. A geeky, witty, self-deprecating guy, Jennings’ prodigious knowledge was matched by his appealing personality, making him a TV phenomenon and boosting the popularity of the show.

After returning to various Jeopardy! exhibition tournaments, cementing his legendary status, he got into the running as one of the potential candidates to replace the show’s iconic decades-long host, Alex Trebek, whose cancer diagnosis had been made public and who was nearing retirement. In 2021, Jennings was officially announced as the new official host of Jeopardy!. He has breathed new life into the show; while Trebek’s personality was aloof and almost enigmatic, Jennings is warm and jocular, frequently engaging in witty repartee with the contestants and helping to bring out their personalities. Jennings also clearly knows a lot of the answers to the questions without needing to read off the cards, allowing him to make more informed split-second judging decisions about the acceptability of contestants’ answers, and allowing him to make certain edifying clarifications and to add cool fun facts about some answers. In other words, he’s the perfect host for the show, the perfect ambassador for the brand, and the perfect steward to carry the show for decades to come.

His politics are also very obnoxiously woke. I try not to use that word very often, considering it over-used and under-defined, but I think it fairly encapsulates his public statements on politics, which can easily be found by perusing his Twitter and Bluesky accounts and, apparently, by listening to his various podcast appearances. He has the typical smug, sanctimonious approach of a guy who was the smartest person he knew for his entire youth, and who was used to winning every argument he came across due to pure cognitive processing power and verbal agility. Political dunks phrased as though they’re so self-evidently obvious that only a total dolt would fail to agree with them. A deep and abiding belief that “supporting” trans people, abolishing borders, and ending “mass incarceration” are the urgent moral responsibility of every good-thinking person.

This commitment to progressive politics has bled over into Jeopardy! itself; since Jennings took over hosting, there has been a palpable increase in the number of questions related to black writers and activists, and a Jennings has made several on-air comments (mild, but obvious to those who are attuned to them) which reveal his own politics. It’s especially disheartening to know that a man with his depth of knowledge and clearly impressive mental faculties isn’t able to see the nuance around these issues, despite the ease with which the internet allows people with even a modicum of curiosity to expose themselves to the best arguments from the other side.

Now, I do hope/plan to meet Jennings some day; I have auditioned for Jeopardy! before, making it past the initial testing phase but never getting the call. I plan to continue to audition yearly until I eventually make it on the show, where I’m confident I could make a decent showing of myself and even win some real money. It crushes me to know that someone who’s something of a minor hero of mine would, upon learning my politics, want absolutely nothing to do with me, and may even not want me to be able to appear on the show, one of my life’s dreams. I try to studiously avoid hearing anything about Jennings’ politics, not wanting to further tarnish my warm feelings toward him. My single biggest fear about being doxxed, even above the effect it’d likely have on my personal and professional relationships, is the fear that it could prevent me from having my chance to compete on the show; I try not to think about whether Jennings would want me disqualified.

Not wrong! Honestly, on further consideration I even suppose that it's even a good heuristic to push people to struggle who plausibly are unfixable retards. Better to refuse emotional gratification to a few unfixables if it means you're on the safe side of ensuring people with decent odds who merely appear unfixable don't have peer permission to throw in the towel.

The state already intervenes unfortunately, only for the other side. The laws are broken and against the father or anything patriarchal. The state sends money for drag queen story hour equivalent programs.

I hope the boy can play wiht older boys around him. Many a times, parents longhouse kids and other young ins are a good way ot break that sowly. I was trying to kiss girls at age 4 because you cannot deprogram hetersoexuality out of a child that easily.

So if the IAEA says they are in compliance --> they are in compliance.

No. I think the IAEA will generally say they are in compliance regardless of whether they are, and most likely they have not been for quite a while.

True, but beggars can't really be choosers in this context.

Yep, also Nick is a legit fed who escaped jail time during Jan 6. I see him as someone I go for viral memes, his political understandng is very juvenile as he famously never reads. Now I am not arguing for reading being the greaest virtue, plenty back then in the nacient world learnt whtout reading but this happened under very different conditions.

People should ignore him largely, anyone who has been as terminally online as he is and with the people he was with getting some things right. One of the guys who wrote ai 2027 predicted some things in a manner where he got enough right for people to take him as an auhtority.

Chatter on twitter is that they targeted some existing ventilation shafts (Yes, straight up Star Wars/Top Gun style) to increase the effective depth on the bombs.

They did that sort of thing in the Gulf War, they're probably much better at it now.

Doesn't look like there was general subsistence of the land in the BBC imagery, so they probably didn't literally collapse the place. I wonder if Israel or the US has drones capable of being sent in remotely and going down the holes for damage assessment.

I'm wondering if this sort of approach only 'recently' became possible by the advent of, say, AI-enhanced guidance systems that can recognize a target via visual cues alone so doesn't need a human in the loop to, say, lase the target or steer it in.

At the risk of sounding, I dunno, petty? Did Fuentes put any money on the line, did he find someone to take the other side of his position, reduce the bet to fairly specific terms, and have someone willing to judge who won by a given deadline?

Bryan Caplan puts money on all of the bets he makes and chronicles them in a wiki he maintains. He's got a great record against some very smart people.

There's specific lose conditions, plus incentives to be accurate/not bullshit.

Fuentes also didn't put any specific confidence estimates on those bets, so he can always walk back the ones that were off base if he wants "oh that was a long shot anyway." Well you never said if you thought it was a 10% chance of a 90% chance, so I guess you can retroactively change that belief.

This is how pundits operate. Throwing a bunch of vague predictions against a wall, phrased to feel specific and of course they never let someone take up the other side of the position who can then call them out later.

Like when I was talking about how Tariffs would play out I really tried to be specific enough that I can be judged wrong and lay out a strict 'I was wrong' scenario.

Speaking of, looks like the time is ticking down for some more 'permanent' deals to be worked out in the next month or I'll have missed the mark on the most recent extension.

Edit: And I'm still confident (80% to be specific) that they get it done soon. 20% is reserved b/c we're in a time where crazy events can happen in short time frames.

EU is allegedly pretty close:

https://archive.is/WmZRp

As is India:

https://archive.is/1An8l

In my experience (southeastern US) it depends on the trade. Plumbers and HVAC guys tend to run in vans while construction guys tend to run pickups.

During my brief membership in the white pickup mafia (I was a service/install technician for draft beer systems.) I drove a quad cab Chevy Colorado with a bed cover. Most of what I did could be accomplished with a van, but I occasionally hauled large refrigeration units (glycol chillers) that wouldn't easily fit in one. It was also nice to carry dirty/smelly equipment in the bed instead of the cab.

I'm not a truck guy, but I was honestly impressed with that Colorado (aside from. It was faster than it needed to be (300HP V6), nice for a base-trim vehicle (power windows/locks, excellent AC and stereo), and got decent fuel economy (21 MPG mixed and 24-27 MPG highway) while being easy enough to park (Backup camera is a lifesaver here.).

It's a true statement that the majority of women could get credit in their own name before 74.

But it's not enough to say "the majority of weren't discriminated against". For example, only a small number of Christians today are being hounded over anti-LGBT views. It's still wrong.

Another way to put it is that the requirement of fairness is one that each individual is due. It's not something that accrues to groups or classes. This is also a bit about the way the recent affirmative action cases have played out: Harvard (standing in for the entire ideological clade) argued that they treat all groups fairly, the conservative answer is that groups don't get treatment, only individuals do.

I'm not sure how much of Ellison's writings are his own faults, rather than exaggerated versions of failures he's seen and done, but there's definitely a mix and I agree that it probably doesn't favor him -- the man did end up with a bipolar diagnosis late in his life, and it pretty clearly wasn't some badge-of-accomplishment diagnosis. And he definitely has some of that 'I talked to a taxi driver' rather than 'I did this enough to grok it' going on.

Tbf, my gutcheck has some of the exaggeration in The Essential Ellison feels like self-loathing, even before I knew about the BPD... but it wouldn't, wouldn't it, whether because he actually had those flaws that bad or because he felt his minor failures were the end of the world. On the other hand, it's hard to tell how much of his hating was anti-anti-semitism rather than just being a hater in general -- the man famously loathed Star Wars and Spielberg in general, and had a number of non-Jewish cause celebres like van Vogt.

On the gripping hand, it's hard to tell how many of those cause celebres he really cared about, rather than just hating their enemies: From Alabamy With Hate is the best-known example, and particularly damning because its denouement revolves around a letter from a bigot who was 'bad as mud' but 'better' than racial minorities, without much consideration of what made Ellison good rather than just better than bigots, but it's pretty consistent everywhere from race to sexual behavior to the military to his stories to convention behavior. His enemies being idiots, or nazis, or chuds, or the teeming fandom masses, or normies, or whatever... might be better than racial resentment, but it's still not good.

I don't have a lot of room to criticize a hater for hating. I do have a lot of room to criticize a man that wrote at length about how science fiction and speculative fiction aren't the same thing, who can't do anything more himself.

On one hand, there is a point where you have to kill the buddha. Most heroes have feet of clay, few philosophers can commit to the bit to Diogenes level. Especially in media there's always going to be a temptation to present someone who's better than you can be, and whatever extent the mask molds the face, it's never going to be perfect and it can't change what's already happened. It's never pleasant to recognize the extent a writer's real positions are weaker than what they present, but Litany of Tarski -- but in turn neither does a philosophy of life become wrong merely because its proponents can't live up to it. Pratchett's view had its flaws and its failings, but wanting something that isn't true, or maybe even can't be true, because it's worth the progress toward it, is an acceptable tradeoff in my eyes.

On the other, I'm trying to write up an effortpost about cyberiatrogenic conditions (and, uh, come up with a better name than that), and one of the subleads is "the things we needed to hear, from the people who should have been there to say them", and how that's incredibly dangerous. Few heroes are carved full from in-situ marble, few philosophies can survive being used every day... except in this distant or fiction view, where every consideration comes through the camera lens, at most from wholly-artifical canned challenges built to reinforce the themes of a story. It's easy to forget that, or what it means. This is a way you'll be burned, and the stovetop hurts, and you'll be burned again. That's part and parcel of how heat works. Tech has let us forget that, for short periods and for induction cooktops, but that's an artifact of memory, not of the world.

Real people, whether Ellison or a childhood friend, will not be clones of you or homonculi of what you want or want to become. Real relationships mean friction. Pratchett's view had its flaws and its failings. Carrot Ironfoundersson (mostly) doesn't and can't. Beware what extent the latter has hacked your brain.

Trump, a famously reliable counter party

Discrimination in education and employment was de-jure legal through at least the 60s and de-facto for even longer.

But anyway, this is a continuum, there was no single date in the 20th century when those grievances went away. It suffices to highlight that we agree that in 1960 it was generally so and that by 2010 it largely wasn't without having to bicker about the precise point. The echoes of that truth are indeed relevant, and the boomers formed much of their thinking that way.

The idea that they would nuke Israel is a bit silly. They would immediately get nuked back (unless they can take out all of Israel's warheads in a first strike, which they have no way of guaranteeing). And isn't the whole point that they want the land returned to the Palestinians? Why would they turn it into an uninhabitable wasteland (and kill untold numbers of Palestinians in the process)? Iran, despite what Netanyahu wants you to believe, is a rational actor at the end of the day.

VP Vance mentioned something about "hitting a target the size of a washing machine." They either pulled off something incredibly slick that no one but the US could do... or they tried and can't tell for sure if it worked or not.

Didn't Trump offer Gaza shitloads of money?

(~260 feet vs max disclosed bunker depth of 200, though that figure might be misdirection)

Chatter on twitter is that they targeted some existing ventilation shafts (Yes, straight up Star Wars/Top Gun style) to increase the effective depth on the bombs.

Some more speculative chatter is noticing that we allegedly dropped 6 bombs on Fordow... but there are only three (3) visible entry holes. So it is also possible that they dropped a second set of bombs through the first set's entry holes specifically to ensure the kill.

So if the IAEA says they are in compliance --> they are in compliance.

If the IAEA says they are substantially out of compliance --> they are in compliance and pressure was applied (by whom?) to declare them out of compliance.

What would the IAEA do if they were actually out of compliance?

While your nuanced take is true, this is a funny video

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Ev373c7wSRg?si=EWKK5Cw82726FSWC

Well maybe people would make up their mind if the Jews themselves could, but there's so many examples of individuals trying to play both fellow white and oppressed minority at once that it's a meme.

The truth is that Semites are genetically closer to Caucasians than any other race but can still be meaningfully distinguished as a separate genetic cluster if you're willing to engage is sophisticated enough racism.

None of that matters to lefties of course, for whom whiteness is a cultural affair of domination and colonialism and Israel specifically is quite close to a central example of that category.

The Israeli response has been quite measured -- Gaza still exists, and its population has even climbed, last I checked. They should go harder, but they seem unwilling.