domain:web.law.duke.edu
BahRamYou
5hr ago
Worth note that North Korea didn't have nukes for a long time, and they stayed safe even though they did a lot to piss of the US and all their neighbors. And they still only have a few shitty low-yield nukes.
It seems like you you just have to be seen as a hard target. NK did it with mountains a ton of artillery. Ukraine was seen as a much weaker target by everyone.
phailyoor
5hr ago
It's well known that the far right nazis love muslims because muslims love to kill jews. I don't see what's surprising here. The horseshoe theory is right yet again.
phailyoor
5hr ago
I admit that his writing style is weird, but there is little reason to believe it's AI generated. There are no solid tells and the only AI image he posted is a repost of the one Tucker posted. Also, his pinned tweet is something that no off-the-shelf LLM would generate in a million years.
Get better at detection. The people who see AI everywhere it isn't are just as bad as the ones who see slop and see nothing wrong.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
5hr ago
How would you feel if your daughter turned up on your doorstep on the arm of a McKinsey consultant or a white-shoe lawyer (who we affect to similarly desipse)? If most people's answer is positive, it's prestigious and the haters are just jealous.
phailyoor
5hr ago
Show me where apprentice jobs actually pay more than comparably difficult jobs on the open market
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
5hr ago
The main thing I am seeing here is that (after the very real spate of political violence in 2020, which largely ended on Jan 7th 2021), the demand for political violence in the US massively exceeds the supply, in the same way that Steve Sailer used to joke about the demand for racism exceeding the supply. People on both sides desperately want their opponents to be launching the red/brown terror, both to gain political capital by criticising the other side and to feed their own vicarious martyrdom fantasies. And this desire to big up political-looking violence for partisan reasons leads to the kind of media coverage that attracts copycats, so your average unhinged shooter is now more likely to shoot politicians and less likely to shoot up a school.
This isn't new, of course. If you look at the list of attempted Presidential assassinations going back to the founding the words "insanity" and "unfit to plead" appear an awful lot.
Roughly none of the recent cases of "political" violence that blew up in the media involve any of:
- Someone with a history of Dem activism shooting a Republican
- Someone with a history of GOP activism shooting a Democrat
- A perp affiliated with an organised far-left group
- A perp affiliated with an organised far-right group Instead we see the usual lineup of wackjobs plus the occasional Islamist, and one truly weird fringe group (the Zizians).
Apart from the Islamists, the nearest thing we see to an inteligible political motivation is something like Boelter or Wayne DePape (Paul Pelosi hammer guy) - an unhinged Red Triber who consumes right-wing media and is presumed to vote Republican decides to attack a Democrat for unhinged reasons. And the only reason why this is a mostly-Red thing is that comparably unhinged Blues don't have access to guns.
This is nothing like the Days of Rage, Reconstruction/Redemption, or the early C20 spate of anarchist violence. Nobody keeps the required statistics, but I suspect it is closer to a summer of the shark.
Do you believe that Tim Waltz actually directed this man to kill state politicians to clear up seats for him to run for the Senate?
No, of course not. But you were pretty dang sure you had his motivations taped, and it seems you were wrong, so maybe a little silence from all parties to digest and consider this new information is in order:
I'm going to bet that the motivations for this assassination end up red-coded. Per CNN, the shooter is apparently a devout Christian, with him being caught on video "pointedly questioned American morals on sexual orientation". I've seen reports that he had a target list of pro-choice politicians and abortion providers. And not to put too fine a point on it, but he just shot two democrats.
You do acknowledge you were wrong about this, so I appreciate that. But I do think everyone was a bit too quick off the mark making definite pronouncements before we knew anything solidly, and I mean both left and right in this instance. We seem to have had a rash of nutjob shooters, and whatever sense their motivations make in their own heads as to how it all ties together, trying to label "definitely a right-winger because this, that, the other" or "definitely a left-winger because hither, thither and yonder" in the ten seconds after it goes public is too fast and too over-confident in "we know this must have been done by Our Enemies".
We can know, for a fact, that the 2003 Iraq War coalition didn't actually believe their own WMD propaganda. If they thought that Saddam could vaporize the invasion force in a final act of defiance, he'd still be in power today.
?
The Iraq War coalition was framed as a pre-emptive war on the basis that Saddam did not yet have nukes (the only WMD to 'vaporize), but that he was trying to maintain the ability to create them in the future. The theory- propaganda, if you prefer- was that he was known to have pursued them in the past, there was reason to believe he was trying to maintain capabilities while actively circumventing sanctions, and that the consequences would be in the future if not acted upon now.
It was a casus belli premised on the argument that Saddam could not vaporize the invasion force in a final act of defiance.
HereAndGone
5hr ago
That's good, and that is the way it has to be for the world to work. So if our friend becomes the ultimate immortal, he can make sure there are no other wannabe ultimate immortals to challenge him, which leaves him as the sole dominant power. I do think he'd find it rather boring after a few centuries/millennia, unless he does have some master plan in mind for what he's going to do (and he might well decide he's going to remake the world or something equally catastrophic for everyone else).
HereAndGone
5hr ago
If this latest information is accurate, then (1) the guy was a nutjob (2) he was a Dem (3) contra other comments on here he wasn't motivated by right-wing anti-abortion sentiment (if he was going to knock off Democratic politicians, then they're mainly going to be pro-choice as well, so looks like once more correlation is not causation).
4bpp
After January 20th, all orange flairs are considered political
5hr ago
I would find that quite interesting if true - both because I'm in the affected demographic, and because I consider MPB as one of the main pending milestone cases for radical medical life extension. In many ways it's an ideal baby version of the problem: age-related, highly prevalent, great market potential, no stigma around research, external, easily measurable objective success metric with quick feedback, doesn't directly involve any critical organs. It's quite likely that age-related organ failure involves a lot of metaphorical "hair", so as long as we couldn't figure out how to stop and reverse age degrading actual hair, I figure there is no chance that we could do this to the "hair" that might be some ion channels on the pancreas that we only have a tentative understanding of.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
6hr ago
My guess was USSR + SSRI, but that didnt and doesnt make sense.
One question I feel is underexplored is, to what extent would things have gone differently for a hypothetical nuclear-armed Ukraine? It seems plausible enough that in the first few weeks of the conflict, when Russia was actually aiming for the jugular, Nuclear Ukraine could have countered with a credible nuclear threat. However, if Ukraine magicked up a full nuclear triad now, would much of anything change? That is, would it be able to credibly threaten MAD to demand back Crimea and Donbass alone? (I don't think so. It seems pretty obvious that the more realistic form of their current war goals - EU and NATO membership for a rump state minus approximately what Russia has taken, plus or minus some more parts of Donbass - is too valuable to go va banque over, plus the West has an enduring interest in maintaining the nuclear-strike taboo lest the End of History gets undone any further.) Consequently, could it have credibly threatened MAD when Russia grabbed Crimea? ...when it supported the Donbass separatists in uprising? ...if, instead of doing the push for Kiev, Russia only had blitzed for the territory it controls now from the start, declaring that it wants to seize a buffer zone for Crimea and the Donbass separatists? In the worst case, Ukrainian nukes would merely have stopped Russia from making its grand opening mistake (blowing its confidence and certain classes of special force reserves on a useless operation).
Ukraine's fundamental dilemma is that while the EU/NATO exists and is friendly to it, it is very hard for it to credibly signal that it has its back to the wall; but if the EU/NATO backstop were to disappear, it would become very hard for it to marshal the will and unifying purpose to resist Russia.
quiet_NaN
6hr ago
I completely agree.
I would add that having defensive alliances between nuclear and non-nuclear states is a great boon to non-proliferation. Being in NATO is very much preferable from owning a few nukes, but if NATO membership was not an option for former east block states (like Poland, whose past experience with Russia/USSR would make them wary), then these states might have started pursuing nuclear weapons after the fall of the USSR.
However, the Ukraine war also shows that nukes are not the "I win" button. Instead, the button is labeled "Fuck you, fuck me, fuck everyone". Threatening to press it outside the most existential crisis of a regime is not credible, for the most part. (The death star gambit, to blow up whichever polity annoyed you most from time to time pour encourager les autres might or might not work.)
self_made_human
C'est la vie
6hr ago
Whats the "ussri" name about btw?
It's a frankly terrible pun that came to me in a dream. Possibly something to do with fully automated luxury space communism, with the homosexuality optional.
I dont think Bayes theorem requires its numbers to be independent (whatever it would mean for a conditional to be independent of its condition).
Oops. Not sure how that snuck it, the whole point is to find out conditionals and manipulate conditionals.
As far as I know, beard minoxidil doesnt need to be kept up. Androgenic hair is easy to get and usually sticks around.
I believe you're right, but minoxidil takes ages to show good effect. What I mean isn't that he's forced to keep it up while at risk of losing it all when he stops, but rather that he wanted it to get denser and denser, which takes a while.
Going bald is traumatic because it absolutely traumatic and if you dont lie to yourself, it is very easily avoidable. I posted about this a few weeks ago and the response I got were not very good. If you are suffering from Male Pattern Baldness, see your dermat, pop finasteride (take it topically if you are afraid) and dont read about potential side effects, plenty get them via the placebo effect or something. I look normal now, I still did when I was receeding but getting it fixed at the right time did a lot of good to me.
It is somewhat preventable, but the results of finasteride and dutasteride vary. I started balding at 18, went on finasteride and the balding stopped it for a couple years, then hair loss accelerated, I got on dutasteride and now I'm in my early 30s and the hair loss is starting to get pretty bad.
f3zinker
Its A/B testing all the way down
6hr ago
I've been away, I still read from time to time, but not nearly as much as I used to. Maybe I'll do a pass through once or twice a week.
I still love the motte. But life/work/relationship is a lot of work.
aardvark2
6hr ago
after a century or two we will have selected for people who will reproduce in spite of pressure to the contrary.
evolution doesn't work that way, there must be alleles for that trait, if they are not there, then no matter what selection pressure be, it would not evolve.
Sloot
7hr ago
Women surprisingly don't feel the affects of temperature when they have to wear revealing clothes.
“have to”
Forced by socialization and the patriarchy, I presume.
The female desire to be sex objects outweighs the female sensitivity to the cold. A version of this takes place every day in offices across the world, where chicks will wear outfits to showoff their bodies then complain it’s too cold.
09milk
7hr ago
Or just buy the tech from France (and in some way Canada) like how most new nuclear country does it, then assemble a few actual working one before you develope the in house tech and logistic to build more
George_E_Hale
insufferable blowhard
7hr ago
Haven't seen you in a while. Maybe just different threads?
hydroacetylene
7hr ago
Yes, joining the military is a great way to start a career. Pick something with ‘technician’ or whatever in the title as an MOS so there’ll be a job waiting for you once you leave.
It kinda sounds like you’re in an economically depressed area.
hydroacetylene
7hr ago
Tradesmen are mostly honest about their jobs not being fun, but do them for the pay premium, not the promise of a license for rent seeking(which is what a master card is).
I mean, I was looking at his Linkedin early on after someone provided a link online, and it went from "working in food production and large-scale retail" to this Red Lion Group very fast, as in "last job working for Walmart" then "now I am CEO of my own company in the Congo". (May not have been Walmart, but that kind of thing).
So with the benefit of hindsight, we can see the guy getting delusions of grandeur and going off the deep end. But that still would give us no clue as to whether he was left, right, centre, or upside-down pineapple cake, politically.
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