domain:lesswrong.com
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
10hr ago
I can imagine a 24 hour fitness type situation is not great for this but all of the smaller gyms I went to that focused on some sport (i.e. wl or pl) obviously had a decent amount of community in them.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
10hr ago
I’m not convinced it needs to be literal fighting. As a species, we’re rapidly retreating from the real world into very different cyber-simulacra of various aspects of our former life. We probably do at least half of our human contact through screens. We play games rather than going outside for real activities. And I think the simulacra, while they give the a bit more of happy brain chemicals as the real thing, they’re not the same. An online friend is not a real friend. An online game is not the same as playing outdoors. Watching videos of places is not the same as visiting those places.
I think a lot of this stuff ends up being a hyperstimulous. They’re releasing more of those happy brain chemicals than the real life version because they’ve removed most of the slower more boring but actually meaningful bits of those things. Your online friends are always there, just whip out the phone and scroll. And they don’t make demands like an offline friend might, nor do they get in bad moods or get mad at you. An offline walk is mostly quiet maybe interesting flowers or birds or a deer or something. Walk around in a video game and you’ll have constant adventures. So the online world wins, and people don’t do as much offline.
I think just about any real world experience that comes along will help. The kids who seem the most mentally stable are athletes who are spending lots of time playing a sport with their actual body, seeing the gradual improvement as they practice and work out, growing into social relationships as they make real world friends on their team and gain tge confidence to talk to people outside of that group. Sports of any type but especially team sports is really good for kids and especially boys.
ulyssessword
10hr ago
I was going to comment the same thing.
There's a bit of a blurry line if a licensed therapist also offers unregulated life coaching services (as should be their right, but I don't know if professional licensing boards share my opinion), but at minimum they should have a different line item on their bills if they're flipflopping between professional and unconstrained services.
That categorization doesn't just affect the new law. It also affects insurance eligibility, protections on patient confidentiality, answers on various government forms, etc. ("Have you ever been treated by a medical practitioner for a mental health problem?" "No, but I did have a crisis of faith and talked to a priest over the course of several months. It's completely different.")
ThomasdelVasto
Κύριε, ποίησόν με ὄργανον τῆς ἀγάπης σου
10hr ago
Very much depends on the gym, your schedule, and person. Literally orders of magnitude worse for social connection than these other options I mentioned. I have lifted for years and have met, as in exchanged names with, 0 people.
Throwaway05
10hr ago
Hospitals are also extremely obsessed with not getting sued and with not accidentally doing something against policy - they'll eat the cost on a long stay instead of sending someone home to an unsafe discharge.
You'll see things like someone needing rehab, not being able to get placement because of whatever (like being illegal) and then just chilling in the hospital instead.
If someone lives up steps for instance they may not be able to go home.
07mk
10hr ago
The response to a dog yelping in pain is not to yell at it, especially if the pain was not anticipated to occur.
Agreed. Presuming that my 50%+ guess is incorrect and it is either a vibration collar or just a regular collar, his response to what appears to be a moment of distress by his dog is still absolutely horrid behavior. However, I wouldn't condemn him for just one clip of him losing his cool like that; even someone with stupid and vile opinions who has actively harmed US society like him deserves grace for one momentary lapse of that sort. Given how he likely has hundreds (thousands?) of hours of video of him and his dog, finding a single instance of something like this shouldn't be enough to condemn him as a piece of shit.
a shock collar is horrible, but so is what Hasan is claiming he actually did in the moment, and no one seems willing to comment on the behavior of the latter just because that type of abusive behavior is less bad than the shock collar.
I think you're mistaken. No one seems willing to comment on the behavior of the latter because the people who want to remain skeptical given the lack of damning evidence are mostly people who are motivated not to condemn Hasan for anything in the first place, no matter what he does; he could film himself ordering a shock collar from Amazon, unwrapping it, putting it on his dog, and zapping it indiscriminately, and a significant number of these people would figure out why the dog deserved it. And the people who would condemn him for the lesser type of abusive behavior are mostly people who are motivated to jump to conclusions to condemn Hasan with the flimsiest of evidence, so they've already decided that he's guilty of shocking his dog. The exceptions in either group are likely vanishingly small.
ethnic doesn't need to be foreign and foreign doesn't need to be illegals
the violence/crime stats for other demographics is so low compared to blacks, near the entire effect you're pointing out is explained by % black population down to the zipcode level
this outlier effect supplants any other effect because you've chosen a "top five" approach, but this argument doesn't work against the point of the post
places with high numbers of illegals are dirty, overcrowded, dysfunctional, and foreign, in addition to them having higher crime and being generally low-trust
that one "native" group also has this effect isn't mutually exclusive to illegals; the fact that Jackson, Mississippi is a dirty, dysfunctional, violent place while having few foreigners doesn't mean illegals don't have a similar effect on the places they concentrate which keeps regular functional Americans out
which reinforces the point I'm making; these cities being run poorly and protecting illegals (and black criminals) buttresses the political machines there because it keeps regular functional Americans out, even willing to commute multiple hours to live outside of these places
(Miami, San Jose, New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco)
On the other hand it sure doesn't look to me like foreigners turn cities into ethnic spoils engines
wait, are you implying cities like NYC and LA don't have ethnic spoils systems now or in the past (some of the ethnics being foreigners)?
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
10hr ago
tl;dr: Anti-ICE protestors look far more reprehensible and contemptible than the officers do.
I agree with this, particularly the ones in those videos. I just disagree that "better than the worst protestors" is the standard we should be aiming for.
The state of California from 1960 to now proves the theory. The coalition is high-low, government workers, gov bureaucrats and other ideologues against the middle. Whatever "in-group preferences" random illegals have towards other random illegals isn't the question, it's whether or not they form coalitions against the White middle which they do routinely across the US and inter coalition conflict is handled through ethnic spoils. Latinos were willing to be used by white progressive against the White middle and what they demanded was ethnic control and spoils and that's what they got.
That part might be true but this isn't actually helping the electoral chances of Democrats or blacks as a whole. If anything, emigration to red states because of the disorder weakens their voting power and the most famous and wealthy liberal cities being basket cases just undermines the very idea of government competence.
California is effectively a one-party state. California in 1960 was a firmly middle-class Republican stronghold. Emigration out of California to red states is mostly red tribe, further cementing control of the state for Democrats.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
10hr ago
I mean sure, but eventually you get the escalation you wanted and are now being blamed for a dead federal agent or worse member of the military. The ratchet cannot go on forever.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
10hr ago
and it is every red-blooded Americans moral duty to resist them.
Below is an aside to @Gillitrut 's comments. It looks like he/she/they (idk pronouns) have decided to flame out in this thread.
Regardless of what "it" is, a blanket statement asserting the "moral duty" to react in any way to whatever "it" is ... is something close to the antithesis of the Motte, I think. People get to voice whatever strongly held beliefs the have here without censure, which is a good thing. The requirement for that is to then explain why they have such a strongly held belief, or, perhaps, their assumed likely outcome should people not share their strongly held belief.
Stopping after asserting "it's a moral duty!" is one of the worst things a person can do to discourse or conversation. You're inviting people to disagree with just so you can then perform all of the complex dance steps of moral outrage, probably, mostly, in order to support your own feelings of moral superiority.
I am the Steven Segal of Traditional Catholicism a practicing Catholic and so a lot of my beliefs boil down to "because God said so." But even in those cases (check out some of my posts on porn from earlier today - and smash that like button) I try to, at the least, outline the doctrinal teachings / cathechesim standard response on why and how "God said so." I don't smash and run, I don't think anyone out to either .... for the reasons stated above :-).
Iconochasm
2. Bootstrap the rest of the fucking omnipotence.
10hr ago
I think the "chaotic" you slipped in with no justification there is doing basically all the work in holding up your position.
They're projecting themselves as competent, efficient, confident, inevitable, and actually having a great time doing it.
All of those things seem pretty fine for law enforcement.
Throwaway05
10hr ago
My biggest fear is that people will notice this. It will become a Thing...and more will do it.
It may be better that he wasn't found.
Iconochasm
2. Bootstrap the rest of the fucking omnipotence.
10hr ago
So, literally nothing you can point to. Thanks, you made my point abundantly clear.
A decade ago everyone was saying more or less the same thing about autonomous vehicles, yet a true AV seems further away now than it did then. Sure, progress has been made, but the most we have to show for it is incredibly slow robotaxis operating in geofenced areas within a few select cities that don't have weather, which taxis are under constant monitoring from central command. As far as consumer products are concerned, the best we have is the Mercedes-Benz Drive Pilot, which allows you to take your hands off the wheel and eyes off the road while traveling on mapped highways during daylight when there is no rain or snow in traffic 40 mph or below. In other words, nowhere outside of urban freeways during rush hour. I'm not trying to knock technological advances, but there's no realistic timeline on when I'll be able to buy a car that will take me practically anywhere my current car will and allow me to zone out on the way, or be drunk.
And that's for a technology that has paying customers, an obvious use case, and has spent significantly less money in the past 15 years than the AI industry has spent in the last 5. A half trillion dollars later and a rep from the largest (or at least most prominent) AI company can't even tell customers what they're supposed to be using the product for, just that they need to be using it more. They can't provide any technical assistance, other than that they should be doing it better, and the next update will totally solve the problem, whatever that is (something tells me that they would have said the same thing before the last update). And this is for one of the few companies that's actually paying for it. I used to subscribe to specialized, expensive legal software for my firm ($1,000/year), and the sales rep was an expert. She (and her competitors) offered an in-depth demo at which they were able to answer all of my questions, and after I bought in I could call at any time and get help. How long do you think it will be before @dukeleto's boss realized that all this is doing is costing the company money and cancels the subscription?
But that's neither here nor there; if this were normal technology like AVs I'd be more optimistic about the industry plodding along gradually. The bigger problem is that we're talking about an industry that's spent 500 billion on a product that doesn't sell, and I've read various places that the amount of planned spending the next few years is in the trillions. By comparison, the year with the highest AV investment was 2021, with somewhere around 13 billion. OpenAI alone plans to spend more than that on training next year, after spending 9 billion this year.
The point I'm making is that the amount of money necessary to keep this train going simply doesn't exist, or at least doesn't exist without them convincing people to actually pay for their product. ChatGTP has about a 3% conversion rate. "Well," the optimists say, the real money is in enterprise sales and software integration. Well, Microsoft has a similar 3% conversion rate for its Copilot add-on. This is Microsoft we're talking about, a company so good at selling its products that they're the industry standard in both business and home use, present in hundreds of millions of computers worldwide. And Spotify had a conversion rate 8 times higher its first year in the US.
So what happens after the bubble pops? I don't want to speculate on how it will unfold because I can imagine any number of scenarios, but I'm pretty sure about a couple things. First is that free access to LLMs will either go away entirely or be severely limited. Whoever is left in the business isn't going to be able to afford to lose money on every query. More dramatically, though, I don't think R&D can plod along gradually like it did with AVs; it's just too expensive. When training a new model costs billions, it's not something you can throw money at from the R&D budget. And in the wake of the bubble bursting, even the idea of it might turn people off. I may be wrong insofar as there may be a future for it similar to AVs, but even then, it's a far cry from what we were promised.
OliveTapenade
10hr ago
I've never run into a torrent of the like on Hinge either - I have a few deal-breakers, obnoxious politics are one of them, and after hitting X on a number of people the app seemed to figure out that I don't want to see more of them.
Iconochasm
2. Bootstrap the rest of the fucking omnipotence.
10hr ago
No. And I don't think they need to - to a degree that is honestly remarkable. The barrel scraping people have to go to to find examples of ICE fuckups is amazing. In the videos of confrontations I've seen, it's almost always been ICE agents showing commendable restraint in the face of unhinged provocation, occasionally capped by swift bursts of force when the unhinged protestor escalates to assault.
The simple fact that protestors feel safe and confident physically standing in front of ICE vehicals, doing Karen harassment of ICE officers, and going on psychotic, spittle-flecked rants directly in the faces of armed federal agents tells me that every one of those protesters is a LARPing retard who knows perfectly well that nothing Nazi-like is going to happen to them. In the absolute worst case scenario they get bruised comparable to getting tackled in a game of football. I find their behavior vastly more anti-social, and I lowkey hate the fact that their actions make me desire stricter laws against their bullshit.
tl;dr: Anti-ICE protestors look far more reprehensible and contemptible than the officers do.
OliveTapenade
10hr ago
I think that's a bit different - that's presenting a non-central member of a class as if it's the centre. That's something like what I'm talking about, but I have a process in mind.
Moral dilution, maybe?
Incanto
10hr ago
Non-central fallacy is a related I remember coming up on SSC.
Motte-and-bailey is also a related concept.
dr_analog
top 1% of underdog fetishists
10hr ago
TRON bike lighting update.
(1) Unfortunately, 3M VHB tape doesn't adhere to bike helmets very well. It sticks okay to the bike helmet, but not at all to the silicone tubing the LED strips are inside of. I guess I'll use zip ties for prototyping while I try to find something else.
(2) In the meantime I was displaying each kids' personal logo in an OLED display on their respective ESP32 chip and I thought this would be easy-peasy to drive while updating WS2815 strips since FreeRTOS has "tasks" but it was crashing mysteriously when I tried to run both the light sequences and update the OLED display in separate tasks. So I just gave up and decided to make a single task state machine that would poll (with a 50ms sleep) to see if it was time to update each one. This mostly meant taking apart top-level loops to drive animations and replacing it with big switch statements that can do a small increment of work at each time. Usual game programming loops.
Got it 99% working nice and good before figuring out there was some underlying bug that was crashing my tasks in FreeRTOS in the first place and I could actually have simplified the logic quite a bit by using tasks. But whatever the single task state machine approach is working so I'll just roll with it.
All this applies equally to the dog.
It doesn't, because the dog has been bred for hundreds of thousands of years for subservience. Not attacking its owner is in its bones. Is that how you view yourself?
KMC
lurk moar
10hr ago
Within the North Woods, between 102nd and 105th Street, assailants were reported attacking several cyclists, hurling rocks at a cab, and attacking a pedestrian, whom they robbed of his food and beer and left unconscious.[12][13] The teenagers roamed south along the park's East Drive and the 97th Street transverse, between 9:00 and 10:00 p.m.[12] Police attempted to apprehend suspects after crimes began to be reported between 9:00 and 10:00 p.m. Michael Vigna, a competitive bike rider, testified that, at about 9:05 p.m., he was hassled by a group of boys, one of whom tried to punch him.[12] At about 9:15 p.m., Antonio Diaz, who had been walking in the park near 105th Street, was knocked to the ground by teenagers, who stole his bag of food and bottle of beer.[12] And Gerald Malone and Patricia Dean, riding on a tandem, said that a group of boys tried to block their path on East Drive south of 102nd Street at about 9:15 p.m.; Malone said that he and Dean sped towards the boys, causing them to scatter, though Dean said that a few grabbed at her; the couple called police after reaching a call box.[12]
At least some of the group of teenagers traveled farther south to the area around the reservoir, and, there, four male joggers were "set upon" between 9:25 and 9:50 p.m.[13]: ¶ 7 David Lewis testified that he was attacked and robbed about 9:25–9:40 p.m.[12] Robert Garner said he was assaulted at about 9:30 p.m.[12] David Good testified he was attacked at about 9:47 p.m.[12] And, between 9:40 and 9:50, John Loughlin was "knocked to the ground, kicked, punched, and beaten with a pipe and stick"; he sustained "significant but not life-threatening injuries".[13]: ¶ 7 At a pretrial hearing in October 1989, a police officer testified that when Loughlin was found, he was bleeding so badly that he "looked like he was dunked in a bucket of blood".[14]
According to a later statement by District Attorney Nancy Ryan, "[a]ll five implicated themselves in a number of the crimes which had occurred in the park."[13]: ¶ 10
I don't think I got anything wrong. Hitting someone with a pipe doesn't leave DNA evidence, and the fact that someone else raped her at some point doesn't mean these five are innocent.
As to the five defendants, the [2003 Armstrong] report said:
We believe the inconsistencies contained in the various statements were not such as to destroy their reliability. On the other hand, there was a general consistency that ran through the defendants' descriptions of the attack on the female jogger: she was knocked down on the road, dragged into the woods, hit and molested by several defendants, sexually abused by some while others held her arms and legs, and left semiconscious in a state of undress.
I also believe this. Hang 'em high.
Iconochasm
2. Bootstrap the rest of the fucking omnipotence.
10hr ago
I’m willing to accept that I’ve been too flippant over the past week. Maybe that really is a newfound streak of partisanship. But I’ve never been shy about my distaste for Trump’s strongman governance. I’d like to think my position here is its natural extension.
FWIW, I'm not particularly judging about the change. You're becoming more like me, if with a different valence. But one of the things I've learned over the years is that, even for topics that fill me with molten-veined partisanship, there are going to be incidents where my side just has to take the L (even if I think it doesn't change the overall conclusion). And when I see people talking about some new Happening, it's worth at least finding out what they're on about before coming in hot with a take. In the worst case, where it's something that goes strongly against my priors and makes my side look awful, I can always just not talk about it.
I mean, it clearly just means 'nobody with official sanction is allowed to countersignal LGBT'. That is what it means in practice.
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