domain:natesilver.net
faceh
17hr ago
Nope. But its definitely authentic about it, it doesn't hate the contestants.
Capital_Room
rather dementor-like
17hr ago
Human history has been a fairly steady march of increasing liberalism
This is straight-up Whig history, and I am far from alone in rejecting it.
Edit: and now I see IGI-111 laid it all out much better and in more detail below.
Capital_Room
rather dementor-like
17hr ago
Something's gotta give between
- Abstinence until marriage
- Marriage driven by choice and random chance relatively (25+) late in life.
- No fault divorce.
- A healthy sex drive in an individual.
So just get rid of #2 and #3, then.
9 is wildly overrated. The gameplay in 9 is totally broken. The animations take so long that everyone's ATB bar fills up at at the same time, so you can never guess what order the turns will happen!
The writing was also lousy. The "comic relief" character Quina is by my estimate the 6th funniest character of the main cast, behind Steiner, Zidane, Vivi, Eiko, and Garnet ("What's that phrase again? Oh yeah! Get off me you scumbag!") and arguably 7th because Freya and Zidane have that bit where he pretends he didn't know her name. Amarant was a wildly underdeveloped and pointless character, and while Freya was interesting the writers just forgot about her halfway through the game (common problem in final fantasy).
Great music though.
I haven't played them all, but of the ones I've played, I guess I'd rank them 12 < 3 < 9 < 4 < 5 < 8 < 7 < 10 < 6.
Does anyone actually look up to middle managers in HR departments, girlboss or otherwise? How is that prestigious? Lots of people look down on HR as useless do-nothing wreckers, yourself included. HR are villains in popular culture: https://youtube.com/watch?v=ADWb4gM7cDM
Or McKinsey? Consultants are also reviled and blamed for so many problems. Quite right too IMO.
Academia is prestigious (letters before and after your name!), being a lawyer is prestigious, working in finance, working in some human-rights NGO is prestigious/virtuous, being a doctor is prestigious. All of these have some tangible pull factor, ranging from power, wealth, high academic requirements or virtue. There might be hostility but they're not despised like HR is.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=-l0HFgfDWec&t=13
I'm looking for a man in finance, trust fund, 6'5, blue eyes
HR only has a lack of negatives (you don't have to deal with the general public grubbily asking for fries, you work sitting down all day).
I think the issue is that there's a default track in that you're supposed to go to university (you are smart aren't you?) and then people feel like they need to use their uni degree, so they go into HR or some similar low-value public service job. It's a smooth progression.
Nobody ever dreamed of working at McKinsey, they just end up there after going to uni and studying 'business'.
pssandwich
Pro-life, MRA, Social Democrat, Environmentalist, Atheist
17hr ago
Thanks for the response! I disagree with you that this makes a case for personhood (as a distinct concept from "being a human organism").
Well whether a life is or is not a person is an important moral factor in deciding how immoral it is to kill that life.
I don't agree. in my moral system the only relevant factor is whether it's a human being or not. I can't think of any non-abortion/consistent life ethic issues in which not making this distinction would lead to a conclusion that you'd disagree with.
For example, people generally don't consider taking animal lives equally immoral as taking human lives
This issue can be resolved by just deciding axiomatically that human lives are important and animal lives are not. This is what I do in my moral system. There's no need to introduce a concept of personhood separate from being a human organism to resolve this issue normally. Moreover, I think even among animal rights people, the unironic belief that "animals are people too" is pretty fringe.
I'm aware that lots of people use the concept of "personhood" to talk about abortion, including some pro-lifers. I'm just not sure what it gets you outside of the context of the abortion debate, which is what I mean when I say it's an ad-hoc concept. I think you can recover the entirety of most pro-choicers' morality, aside from abortion/consistent life ethic stuff, by just defining "person" to mean the same thing as human organism. I don't even think this runs afoul of what most people who believe in animal rights think. But pro-choicers introduce this extra "personhood" concept that doesn't play any role in their other beliefs to resolve this one issue, rather than taking the simpler route of just defining everything in terms of being a human organism.
I'm not saying the pro-choice position is inconsistent. I'm saying that it requires introducing extra complexity to your moral system that isn't used for anything else. Is there any issue, aside from consistent life ethic/abortion stuff, in which you must appeal to personhood as distinct from being a human being in order to arrive at the normal position?
Capital_Room
rather dementor-like
17hr ago
That Devon Eriksen quote pretty much describes a good portion of my own worldview, and your analogy about mitochondria versus viruses sums up another chunk (indeed, it's a metaphor I use myself from time to time). And I, for one, think #1 is pretty much inevitable, with maybe the slimmest hope of #3 (though I think that to be successful, #3 can't rely on "outbreeding the enemy" alone, and will ultimately have to resort to a superior capacity for violence).
wifje
17hr ago
Nice write up, in the last couple of months there was some researcher, this one i think? https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29569259/ , that claimed that some structural issue with a vein in the groin is the main cause for prostate cancer, and that the way it works is that it causes very testosterone rich blood go directly from the testicles to the prostate. have you seen anything related to that in your research? i did some googling after that because it sounded like something that could have at least an indirect link and havent found anything too clear, but wondering if you noticed something
Capital_Room
rather dementor-like
17hr ago
Healthy cultures are evolved phenomena, and most cultures currently alive are no longer suited to their environments.
This right here is a big part of what makes me a "reactionary" right there. The entire modern world vastly overestimates the capacities of intelligently-designed, top down "culture and education program[s]."
AvocadoPanic
17hr ago
I would have liked him to know the population of Iran, and the approximate ethnic make-up of the population. I would have liked Tucker to follow up with a query to see if he knew the population of Israel.
I would have liked him to condemned Mossad intelligence operations carried out domesticly in the US. Call for increased efforts by FBI counter-intelligence. Especially in an interview just before Juneteenth, they day we celebrate the execution of the Rosenbergs, notorious Soviet spies.
LiberalRetvrn
17hr ago
You can get an entry level HVAC job in June by having a clean driving record, piss test
I really don't believe this. One of my coworkers finished a private electrical trade school, went into debt, and he still can't find an apprenticeship. I doubt HVAC is much different, especially in my area of the country where nobody even has air conditioning. Maybe in a big metro area or something. But I work at a lumber yard in a rural area and everyone wants to do either trades or become a firefighter (for some reason). And the firefighter guys seem to have a much higher success rate. I've applied to at least 100 jobs and gotten 2 interviews, both of which ghosted me after. And yes I'm an autist but I can hide it pretty well for short periods of time. The most recent one was for a "laborer" position at a company that does kitchen remodels, so it was actually one level below an apprenticeship, but there was a possibility to maybe become an apprentice someday. The interview went pretty well in my opinion, but he said they had hundreds of other applicants. At this point I'm more interested in joining the navy, since at least it's guaranteed employment and bennies once I'm in, rather than sinking hundreds of hours into job searching and hoping some boomer will answer the phone.
hydroacetylene
17hr ago
Interesting question that one. The tradcath version before any liturgical changes would be:
Let us pray also for the faithless Jews: that Almighty God may remove the veil from their hearts;[a] so that they too may acknowledge Jesus Christ our Lord. ['Amen' is not responded, nor is said 'Let us pray', or 'Let us kneel', or 'Arise', but immediately is said:] Almighty and eternal God, who dost not exclude from thy mercy even Jewish faithlessness: hear our prayers, which we offer for the blindness of that people; that acknowledging the light of thy Truth, which is Christ, they may be delivered from their darkness. Through the same Jesus Christ our Lord, who liveth and reigneth with thee in the unity of the Holy Spirit, God, for ever and ever. Amen.[9]
With partial liturgical changes it is:
Let us pray also for the faithless Jews: that almighty God may remove the veil from their hearts; so that they too may acknowledge Jesus Christ our Lord. Let us pray. Let us kneel. [pause for silent prayer] Arise. Almighty and eternal God, who dost not exclude from thy mercy even Jewish faithlessness: hear our prayers, which we offer for the blindness of that people; that acknowledging the light of thy Truth, which is Christ, they may be delivered from their darkness. Through the same our Lord Jesus Christ, who liveth and reigneth with thee in the unity of the Holy Spirit, God, for ever and ever. Amen.
Grant_us_eyes
17hr ago
As much as I dislike Substack, I'll give fair where fair is due - that was a fairly entertaining and educational read. Thank you for that.
Grant_us_eyes
17hr ago
I mean, is this a peptide? Do you have a name?
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
17hr ago
Particularly bizarre given that Jews don't believe that Jesus was the messiah. Why would any Christian be so passionately devoted to people who dispute one of their most fundamental beliefs?
urquan
Blessings crown the head of the righteous, but violence overwhelms the mouth of the wicked.
17hr ago
Aren’t the user viewpoint focuses supposed to be based on nomination?
hydroacetylene
17hr ago
Sure, but computer programmers are what, 80% male? That's my guess without submitting to artificial mental retardation, whether through a search engine or not. Last I checked, a (slim)majority of (employed)women were employed as k-12 teachers or registered nurses.
I'm entirely prepared to believe the statement 'men and butch lesbians shouldn't take time off work to have a kid'- that's their wife's job. The jobs feminine women perform don't care about three year resume gaps if there's a kid involved.
urquan
Blessings crown the head of the righteous, but violence overwhelms the mouth of the wicked.
17hr ago
What liturgical book is that from?
Sorry for the late response, I've drafted this far more times than I really should have.
I've completely changed most aspects of my life, in many cases entirely reversing my previous preferences or habits.
You would consider you new preferences and habits to be unambiguously superior to before, yes? If so, where is the aforementioned trade-off?
To put it another way, a true believer in the Greek Pantheon is obliged to offer libations and sacrifices to the gods to remain pious. From a secular perspective, this serves zero purpose and is an active waste of valuable resources. In your worship, what do you sacrifice for your faith?
If we return to Deus Vult and the sword, will that satisfy you in some way?
It would, yes. If the word of Christ really is the Way and the Truth and the Light, Christians ought to be far less complacent in their efforts to spread the gospel than they currently are. Should you not rout the disbelievers, those who lead souls astray with false idols and apathetic impiety? Should you not hate the heretics, those who twist revelation into abomination? Your predecessors certainly did, so what changed?
there are also a lot of Christians like myself who are not partaking of "modern" Christianity but rather the old sort, and for whom it is an actual way of life.
I think the Christianity you practice is actually quite different to the old sort, at least in practical implementation. For one, the demons of the earth who possessed the insane, swapped babies with changelings, communed with witches, and who many good Christians thought actually, literally existed have seemingly vanished. I can only assume that amulet technology and exorcism procedures have seen massive improvements in the last couple of centuries.
I don't mean to say that you're obligated to believe in witches and demons, or that you're a hypocrite for not. But I have a hunch that the sort of casual superstition that past Christians practiced may have been vital (or at least a factor) in avoiding the exact sort of secularization that modernity hath wrought, at least among the common folk. Us gentry might be able to satisfy ourselves with philosophies of the Good, but many don't see the point of belief when there's nothing concrete in it for them.
AvocadoPanic
17hr ago
blessing that the Christians bestow on Israel (e.g. the Jewish diaspora) seems pretty limited
They're prayed for on Good Friday that they might repent their sins and find salvation through Jesus. What better blessing is there?
O merciful God, who hast made all men, and hatest nothing that thou hast made, nor wouldest the death of any sinner, but rather that he be converted and live; Have mercy upon all Jews, Turks, Infidels, and Heretics, and take from them all ignorance, hardness of heart, and contempt of thy Word; and so fetch them home, blessed Lord, to thy flock, that they may be saved among the remnant of the true Israelites, and be made one fold under one shepherd, Jesus Christ our Lord, who liveth and reigneth with thee and the Holy Spirit, one God, world without end. Amen.
Hadad
17hr ago
Sometimes, the expenditure is justified, even necessary, despite the financial stress. That's why whether the spending is frivolous or not is important. Sometimes you still need gas and groceries, even if you can't afford to splurge on a new video game.
AvocadoPanic
17hr ago
They're the same picture.
AvocadoPanic
17hr ago
compromised by Israeli spies
Not being compromised, seems like it might be a shorter list.
kky
17hr ago
I’m going to ignore most of your comment, which I agree with and have nothing to add to, and focus on the part that deserves elaboration.
'Explain this gap in your resume' being met with 'I was a SAHM when my kids were in diapers' will not stop normal average jobs from hiring you. It's only awesome girlboss career track progression that will be derailed that way.
I’m a white collar worker, and a member of a specific skilled trade - namely, a programmer. And it is a craft, or trade, for what it’s worth. There’s a huge amount of trouble in learning to program the right way, where “right” goes from the seemingly-trivial “works without bugs” and “runs pretty quickly and cheaply” out to the trickier “can be easily maintained and extended” and “can be deployed without taking out double digit percentages of the world’s Windows servers.” That’s what I do, and what I aim to be good at. If I do my job right, nobody notices a thing, and their systems run as smoothly as sci-fi.
The reason I bring this up is to add some context on white-collar work and why what you say is so.
The biggest costs to cutting yourself out of white collar work are:
- Needing to re-familiarize yourself with the subject matter.
- Losing contacts within an organization and having to build a promotion bid from scratch.
- Missing the slow, natural growth of abstract and industry-specific knowledge needed to rise.
Going through these in turn.
White-collar work - the real stuff, not lesser clerical roles, usually called email jobs - is knowledge work. And that means your job involves a hell of a lot of learning and recitation. Obviously a skilled craftsman also needs to know his stuff, but the amount of specialist, company-specific, novel, or downright esoteric knowledge you are expected to have in a white-collar role is massive.
This is the table of contents for the Arch Linux wiki. Scroll up and down - pretty long list. Now note a little number in parentheses by most of those - this is the number of subpages aggregated under one of those keywords. And while Arch’s wiki is known to be pretty exceptional, it is not exhaustive of Linux knowledge, and Linux knowledge is not exhaustive of computer science or IT skills.
So dropping out of that world for a time means you will concretely be missing skills when you come back. The longer you’re gone, the worse it will be. In the best case you’re simply going to be making the same money as before you left. Worst-case, you’ll be making less. Some of this, in software, is honestly just dumb churn. I’ll admit to that. But it’s the
Moving on. Analyzing a white-collar worker on the merits, especially in a large (bureaucratic) organization, is challenging. It usually doesn’t have obvious and measurable parameters, and if it does, those are guaranteed to be gamed and inefficient elements will rise to the top. So your ability will be in no small part judged by superiors with good reputations. Is this potentially cliquey? Can it keep good workers who are bad at networking down? Hell yes. But it’s roughly the best of a bad set of options. So if you drop out, you have to spend X amount of time proving yourself when you get back and giving some concrete evidence that your superiors can use to support you when you’ve won their trust.
Lastly, and this is probably the most important. Learning to be really good at a trade takes a lot of time and focus. You need talent, and then you need to put effort into it daily. This is doubly true for anything with poor feedback cycles, and the feedback cycles in white-collar work are typically slow and lossy. There’s a long, long way from the choices I make to my company’s revenue, and so telling the difference from a good solution and a bad will take some abstract reasoning and really good evidence. This usually boils down to time in the industry deeply engaged. And if you want to rise above a certain position, this effort and growth is required. On top of that, the vaunted “soft skills” are indeed quite important, since your average white-collar worker is navigating a human-dense and political environment. Dealing with them effectively is just another part of the job, and you only get better at it with time.
I’m aware none of this really undermines your central point. In fact, in a sense I’m supporting it. None of these points are actually fun things about white-collar work, at least the high-skill variants. And the low-skill variants aren’t much different, they just tune down all the knowledge about real things in favor of trends and politics. But the problem of returning to work isn’t just getting past the HR screen, and I wanted to convey a little about my own vocation.
Arklatex sounds like software for reverting typeset math into bad handwriting.
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